Daniel Yergin on $40 Oil, Iran Diplomacy

Daniel Yergin of energy research consultancy CERA on the prospects for $40 oil on continued economic weakness:

Comments

[longoil]

Daniel Yergin and his gang at CERA need to get a better crystal ball. Let's see what they have predicted in the last few years:

2002 CERA predicts: Gas production up 15% by 2010
==> Reality: Gas Production is flat into 2008.

2003 CERA predicts oil will drop to low to mid $20
==> Reality: Oil = $31

2004: CERA predicts oil will hit high 20's or low 30's thru to 2005
==> Reality: Oil = $65

2005: CERA predicts oil will drop below $40 for 2007-2008
==> Reality: Oil = $57

2007: CERA predicts oil will drop to $60's by 2008
==> Reality: Oil well above $100 for most of 2008 and oil peaks at $147 by mid-2008

2009 Apr 08 08:14 AM

[Ferdinand E. Banks]

Daniel Yergin is a very intelligent man who makes a lot of mistakes where oil is concerned. His belief in an 'undulating output peak for oil' , which was derived from a phoney or nonexistent 'model', leads me to believe that his most prominent skill is in receiving money from people who are not very intelligent..

2009 Apr 08 09:18 AM

[Mad Hedge Fund Trader]

I worship this guy, but he totlly missed the spike to 148. Daniel Yergin of Cambridge Energy Partners says that crude prices will stay in a $40 to $60 range for the foreseeable future. The author of the Pulitzer Prize winning “The Prize”, the best business book I have ever read, believes the recent 26% rally in the stock market is what dragged crude up from $35 to $54. Another downdraft in stocks, or a realization that the recession will be longer than expected, could take crude back to $40 in a heartbeat. Inventories are at a 16 year high, with possibly 80 million barrels at sea, as demand has shrunk from 86 to 83.5 million barrels a day over the last two years. Spare capacity is now huge. Don’t expect to break out of this range until a recovering economy eats into these supplies, and inflation makes its inevitable return. Then all commodities will roar, not just crude.

2009 Apr 08 11:19 AM

[Fighting Yoda]

Forecasting is difficult, especially about the future. Yergin should have learnt that by now, but alas he keeps trying.

2009 Apr 08 03:52 PM

[Gtarras]

Daniel got Pulitzer price for his tremendous book "The prize" on history of oil.

He also is famous for writing a book "Commanding Heights" (early 90s) where he sang praises to "reaganomics".

2009 Apr 08 04:07 PM

[ValueInvestor]

Surprise, Surprise. A German that doesn't trust Jews.


On Apr 09 09:58 AM MADE IN SOMALIA wrote:

> Yergin, is a Jewish name with roots going to small villages where
> Jews were allowed to live till 19th century in Russia, Belorussia,
> Ukraine.
> I don't trust Jews in general, I sell Yergin short as CERA is a sell
> side of the market, they don't trade, they provide consensus that
> fits their clients view, if they are bullish, CERA calls for 150$
> Oil, if hedgies are short, they write about 40$ Oil.
> Fuck CERA.

2009 Apr 09 04:41 PM