Prometheus Institute: Renewables Likely to Represent 90% of New Capacity by 2012

By Michael Kanellos

The U.S. still derives the vast majority of its electricity from coal, natural gas and nuclear reactors, but the growth is all in renewables.

Approximately 90 percent of the new electrical capacity that will be brought on line in the U.S. in 2012 will come from renewables like solar, wind, geothermal, biomass and hydroelectric power, according to a new study from the Prometheus Institute.

The vast majority of the 18.6 gigawatts of renewable capacity that will come on line that year will consist of wind power. Wind capacity will grow by 15.9 gigawatts in 2012 while solar will trail with 2.1 gigawatts. Still, even solar should do better than fossil fuels in 2012, according to Travis Bradford, president of Prometheus. Fossil fuel capacity should grow by just over a gigawatt. (Disclosure: The Prometheus Institute and Greentech Media collaborate on several research projects but did not work on this one together.)

Although the growth rates may sound outlandish, they come as a result of pre-existing circumstances and trends. States, such as California, are mandating that utilities increase the power they harvest from renewable resources and a national renewable standard seems likely. By contrast, banks have pulled away from funding coal plants out of fears that carbon trading or taxing may come soon and increase the cost of power. Ironically, in the U.K., researchers are building wind turbine facilities on old coal mines.

Then there is simple construction time. Solar utility fields take time to permit and build, but not as long as nuclear or fossil plants.

The study, though, assumes wind will grow at 17.5 percent and biomass will grow by 10 percent annually.

Nonetheless, renewables have been growing rapidly. In 2000, renewables accounted for a whopping 1 percent, or 279 megawatts of new generation capacity. In 2005, it jumped to 2.7 gigawatts or 17 percent. Fossil fuel plants, meanwhile, dived in 2003 from 44 gigawatts of new capacity to 15.9 a year later.

The flip occurred last year. 9,015 megawatts worth of renewable capacity was added last year while only 8,407 megawatts worth of fossil fuel capacity was added. An additional 720 megawatts of "other" power, i.e., nuclear and fuel cells, was added to bring the total of new capacity to 18.1 gigawatts.

Overall, though, renewables account for only a small fraction of the U.S. energy diet. Renewables accounted for only 7 percent of all of the energy consumed in America in 2007, including petroleum, which clocked in a number one with 40 percent of the pie, according to the Energy Information Administration.

That 7 percent almost entirely consisted of hydroelectric power and biomass. Solar and wind together represented only 6 percent of the seven percent.

Comments

[disdaniel:]

"Solar and wind together represented only 6 percent of the seven percent."

Solar and wind may count for 2 percent (I thought it was ~1%) but certainly not 6 percent of all energy consumed in the US.

Apr 08 11:29 PM

[Windsun33:]

Their are many problems with that rosy scenario.

Even if we can install gigawatts of windpower, the infrastructure is not there to transport it, and with all the red tape involved in getting permission to build things like power lines to get the power to where it is needed, it will take an additional 7-10 years.

Even though nuclear power plants take much longer to go online, in many cases they can be built at or near existing power lines and infrastructure.

Also, one of the dirty little secrets about the Obama "green" in the stimulous packages is that 85% of all commercial sized wind generators are NOT manufactured in the US. Which will be great for Germany, Denmark, etc - but will not produce much in the way of manufacturing jobs in the US.

Apr 09 05:48 AM

[ECONOMICS 101:]

This is a very "rosy" picture to say 90% will come from renewable sources. I guess this is possible when you add the word "new" electrical capacity. Anything is possible when you say "new".

Apr 09 09:33 AM

[Ferdinand E...:]

Nobody who has any intelligence at all could accept the future promised in this article, but if that particular future is meant to be, the US economy is in serious trouble.

Apr 09 09:53 AM

[Ulysses Ben...:]

You guys are right. We should just give up trying to produce our own energy and keep buying from overseas. It's worked so far. It couldn't eventually help destroy the value of the dollar and cause near hyper inflation to just leave things as they are.

Apr 09 12:07 PM

[Road Runner:]

This report is not in line with everything else I am reading. 90% in 2012 just doesn't make sense.

Natural gas has to be a big share. It is very cheap now and North America has a lot of it. It is the cleanest of the fossil fuels both from polutants and CO2. The power plants are relatively simple, fast, and cheap to build.

Though 90% new electirc grid energy from renewables by 2012 would be awesome, I don't buy it.

Apr 09 06:06 PM

[Northstar10000:]

90% is nuts. But I suspect most americans will buy it. They will also be buying 6.00 gas in less than 2 years. And the fools will wonder what happened. Want hard facts. Oil will be the only fuel for the next 20 years. U.S. government will go broke and america will wonder what happened. You bought into the government to the rescue theme. Bet against the fools. Buy oil under 45

Apr 09 07:12 PM

[satch63:]

What do we expect. We put a scientist not a manager as head of DOE.

He only wants to push deals and money out the door to look good to the President , not necessarily do the right thing.

It is very easy to predict future source of supply for an election year.

Maybe all the people/farmers who went bankrupt on new ethanol plants will be funded by our bailed out banks.

Please lets get real - concept is nice but reality is non existent.

Apr 10 10:19 AM

[Henry Buttal:]

A hopeful vision. I always find it interesting that biomass is considered a clean fuel. While renewable, it is anything but clean.

I feel lucky to live in a state, Texas, that has a (mostly) realistic view of our energy consumption and grid management needs. We have are building out electrical infrastructure to support wind generation. The state has nuclear power, and we are permitting to build more. We have a huge amount of natural gas. Our primary non-private generator is helping to build a new coal plant.

Yet even Texas has seen first hand the potential failings in renewables, and especially wind. In March of last year, an unexpected calm covered most of the West Texas wind generating areas, resulting in an unexpected dramatic generation drop. Grid supply and stability was imperiled - rescued only by purchase of electricity from Mexico through a recently completed DC grid tie.

Ultimately, the growth in renewables will weaken, not improve, electrical grid reliability and stability in the near term. Cause the wind don't always blow, and night falls!

Apr 10 11:29 AM

[Will Deliver:]

Good artical Michael. The first 2 paragraphs of your article escaped the negative commentors above. But I also caught your math error at the end of the article.
I see no reason to add any fossil fuel electrical power generators on line, except natural gas from America. I do however fully support a 10 fold increase in clean, alternative energy generation. My idea of clean energy is Solar, Wind and Geothermal, in that order. The more distributed sources of electrical generation from a wide selection of alternative energy suppliers, the more stable the 'Smart Grid' becomes. If the wind doesn't blow at night, the fuel cells and the battery storage will carry part of the load. Geothermal is a 'base power' 24/7 electrical supply. If the demand is still not met, the fossil fuel to switch on should be American natural gas.
I also support plug in hybrid electrical vehicles, especially in the heavy trucking industy. This should reduce the 40% petroleum demand. Eaton Corporation and Balqon Corporation are two American companies that have proved it can be done! But to return to your article...Hooray for 'New' sources of electrical power! Will

Apr 11 12:59 PM