Marc Faber's 10% Prediction? Gimme a Break

This story from Bloomberg should not qualify as news:

Faber said the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may drop as much as 10 percent before resuming gains.

The measure may decline to about 750 and rebound after July, Faber, 63, said in a Bloomberg Television interview in Singapore. Global stock markets are unlikely to fall below their October and November lows, he said.

“We need some kind of correction, maybe around 5 to 10 percent, and after that we can maybe rally more into July,” said Faber, the publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report. “The economic news, while it won’t be good, the rate of getting worse will slow down.”

5% to 10%? We have been seeing swings like that on a weekly basis this year. Investors should be surprised if we do not see a swing that large, especially after the recent run. Saying it "needs" to happen is almost insane. Given the run the markets have had, dropping 5% is virtually irrelevant and I think you would be hard pressed to find anyone other than the congenitally optimistic who thinks we might not see more than that. Hell, I would not be surprised if we do not see 5% by Friday now that we are in earnings season.

This is a "gimme" prediction from Faber so he can sit back and boast when it happens and say "I was right."

I predict the sun will rise tomorrow...

Comments

[Prudent Man...:]

"Predictions" are just WAG. Without fundamentals to support one's evaluation "predicting" is not worth the ink.

Apr 08 09:45 AM

[DiggerUK:]

"I predict the sun will rise tomorrow" sez you.

The sun rose yesterday, but;
"Past performance is no guide to future performance, the sun may go down as well as up"....."You might not get back all your initial investment in sun block stocks"

You need to get out more, go to the countryside and hug a tree.

Apr 08 09:48 AM

[HMS:]

actually Marc Faber he is buying some banks for a trade,

marcfaberblog.blogspot...

Regards

Apr 08 10:16 AM

[mrmillergd:]

Faber is a washed-up hack. Last week he predicted armageddon.

Apr 08 10:25 AM

[VennData:]

I predict: The government will continue to change the rules.

Like that's something new.

Apr 08 11:04 AM

[Francisco M...:]

Faber is a talker without much meat on the bone. I think he is actually rather optimistic. I think we will correct 15% to 20%.

Apr 08 11:24 AM

[redbaron:]

Faber did correctly predict the downturn, but he was way too early. To have some credibility, the timing must at least be in the ballpark, IMHO, and Mark Faber was way too early on his call. He called for this collapse for a couple of years, before it happened, and now some are thinking him some sort of guru for that call. I don't see it that way, and he doesn't get that credibility with me.

Apr 08 11:52 AM

[Egg:]

Don't Fight the Faber.


You will lose in the end

Apr 08 02:49 PM

[Dean Plassaras:]

Faber said that we may decline up to 10% short term and then rally INTO JULY.

Apr 08 03:13 PM

[Errol:]

Did you not get enough attention as a child? You seem to constantly argue with people who have made good calls - Schiff, Faber, etc. And like a previous poster said, if it's not news worthy, then why are you writing about?

Apr 08 05:53 PM

[Homer II:]

Todd, I will take Faber's portfolio and results over yours any day.

Apr 08 07:39 PM

[fstein:]

OK then how about a 20-25% drop over the next month?

Apr 08 10:37 PM

[stockmarket...:]

Faber has been one of the more accurate predictors of the markets over the years. Of course, he is not perfect and no one will ever be. He is, however, in my opinion, much more relevant than a Jim Cramer or Ken Fisher.

Apr 08 11:38 PM

[Roger Knights:]

Didn't Faber call this recent rally on the nose?

Apr 09 12:11 AM

[Bondtrader:]

It seems to me the "time frame" is what needs to be clearly defined when making any prediction. I think Fabar's general premise is that the fundamentals of the U.S. markets are horrific at best (not saying agree or disagree), but in the short term markets may go slightly lower and because economists actions that focus on the immediate and ignore Adam Smith's fourth principal in his "Theory of Moral Sentiments" which basically says you have to focus on the long term unseen affects of economic policy.

I love how take a what he said to Bloomberg out of context, is what blogging is all about right?

Apr 09 09:06 AM

[MGA_1:]

Actually, Faber predicted a March/April rally back in January. Not a bad call....

Apr 09 09:14 AM

[Jeeyum:]

This article came up among "Marc Faber" news articles in a google news search. Maybe that was Todd's goal.

There are many ways Faber's projections could go wrong. Maybe the market will correct 20-30% instead of 5-10%. Maybe the "rally into July" will not materialize. The rate of economic deterioration could increase.

"I predict the sun will rise". How asinine!


On Apr 08 05:53 PM Errol wrote:

> Did you not get enough attention as a child? You seem to constantly
> argue with people who have made good calls - Schiff, Faber, etc.
> And like a previous poster said, if it's not news worthy, then why
> are you writing about?

Apr 10 10:09 AM