First Quantum Minerals: Playing The Inmet Takeover

| About: First Quantum (FQVLF)

First Quantum Minerals Ltd. (OTCPK:FQVLF) is an established and growing mining and metals company currently operating four mines and developing projects worldwide. The stated aim is to become a globally diversified mining and metals company. Present market capitalization is $9.42B, last year's revenue was $2.95B and net earnings were $1.77B, resulting in a profit margin of 60%. First Quantum has been paying a dividend since 2005 which presently yields just under 1%.

Current production is comprised of copper cathode, copper in concentrate, nickel, gold and sulfuric acid. First Quantum's current operations are the Kansanshi copper-gold mine in Zambia, the Guelb Moghrein copper-gold mine in Mauritania, the Kevitsa nickel-copper-PGE mine in Finland and the Ravensthorpe nickel-cobalt mine in Australia. Development projects include a copper smelter and the Sentinel and Enterprise projects in Zambia, and the Haquira project in Peru.

On March 22 First Quantum announced the "creation of a new global leader in copper" due to their successful takeover of INMET Mining.

INMET Mining (OTC:IEMMF) is a copper mining company with three operating mines in Finland, Turkey and Spain. Additionally INMET has been developing the Cobre Panama project, which is a world class copper asset in Panama in which INMET has a 80% interest. This development project is without doubt the crown jewel in INMET's portfolio. With a market capitalization of $4.65B INMET is about half the size of First Quantum. Last year's revenue was 1.12B with a bottom line of $331.2M. Capex for the Cobre Panama mine was estimated at $6.2B.

The hostile takeover of INMET by First Quantum commenced in October 2012 and has now come to a conclusion after 5 months of resistance from INMET's management and board. The consideration for each INMET share will most likely be a combination of cash and shares in the merged entity. On March 21 First Quantum had acquired 85.5% of INMET's shares and INMET's board finally recommended that the remaining shareholders tender their shares to First Quantum's offer before expiry on April 1 2013.

Using the share price at the time of writing each INMET share is valued at $68.92 in the First Quantum offer. INMET currently trades at $67.00 leaving some room for an arbitrage play.

However, there may be a roundabout way to play this takeover story more efficiently:

Petaquilla Minerals (OTCPK:PTQMF) operates the Molejon heap leach gold mine in the immediate neighborhood of the Cobre Panama development. Petaquilla has a market capitalization of $96.2M. Revenues amounted to $98.2M and net income to $14M. Without Petaquilla's cooperation waste from the Cobre Panama operation cannot be dumped as planned leading to inefficiencies in the operation. INMET tried to take over Petaquilla last year and when their bid did not yield the desired outcome they negotiated access rights which were summarized in a binding term sheet announced on February 25. However, with INMET now taken over by First Quantum and numerous INMET directors resigning there is a degree of uncertainty whether or not the term sheet will be executed.

We believe that there is a certain possibility that First Quantum will decide to acquire Petaquilla rather than finalizing the agreement set out in the term sheet. Considering that INMET offered $0.60 per share last year and failed to take over Petaquilla we would assume that a possible bid by First Quantum would need to come in at a significantly higher level. With Petaquilla's share price presently listed at $0.47 the upside for this scenario is considerable.

On the other hand, if First Quantum decides to execute the term sheet as agreed Petaquilla would be a gold investment worth consideration in its own right currently trading at a depressed level with limited down side at present in our opinion.

Petaquilla is a junior gold mining company operating in a comparatively risky jurisdiction. Investments in junior mining companies have inherent risks that should be considered before committing funds.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.