Rising Base Metals, Falling Precious Metals Signals Improving Economy

Includes: DBB, GLD, JJC, JJN
by: Toro

Gold appears to be putting in a double top.

click to enlarge

Gold bull market

It may be that the bull market in gold is ending.

This is not the general thesis from which I am working. I believe that inflation will re-emerge in a few years and gold will go to $1500 or $2000.

However, I may very well be wrong. It may be that gold is signaling an end to systemic risk in the financial system.

Some will argue that a gold top is signaling deflation. That may be. However, base metals appear to be putting in a bottom.

Copper 09 04 08

Nickel 09 04 08

Zinc 09 04 08

If base metals are putting in a bottom, then deflation is not in the offing. Rising base metals and falling precious metals would be a signal that the economy will improve in the not-too-distant future.

Note - Donald Luskin was on Kudlow tonight, and he said that gold and precious metals were his long-term favorite trade. I guess the top for gold is in!