Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

<<Return to page 1

There isn’t a lot more to say today. If I post tomorrow we’ll look at other market sectors unless something crazy happens. If you’re interested in seeing some other markets let me know and I’ll try to give it a shot: email [e-mail] and that should do the trick.

Let’s see what happens.

Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in: SPY, MDY, IWM, QQQQ, IGN, IGV, FDN, XLF, XLI, XLY, DBV, DBC, DBA, DBB, DBC, USL, XLE, MOO, EFA, EEM, EWA, ILF, EWZ, and FXI.

The charts and comments are only the author’s view of market activity and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations aren’t predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author’s opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward.

Comments

[Conan the B...:]

I rather enjoy seeing todays scramble.

I'll enjoy it even more as Bank after Bank will report better than anticipated results and ALL of the Downtrend lines are broken on the SPX.

I am long FAS, DXO, DAG and DYY as of Monday's close. (equal amts) I expect to exit them by April's end with an overall gain of at least 50%.

Bragging, damn right, there are a few of us New Bulls who have been buying since early March.

Hell, I'm up 10% on a closed end tax free muni, a tax free monthly yield of 10% annualized.

Stick to your Bearish stance, when you start using daily charts maybe you will be able to see the Forest instead of a Few trees.

IMO

Apr 09 10:32 AM

[Paul M. Frank:]

Dave: I'm watching EWM and India as closely as you. Love all your work and all your comments. Thanks.

Paul Frank
ETF Market Opportunity Fund
ETFOX

Apr 09 12:36 PM

[diazamm:]

And for the umpteenth time, no one here is following your picks, dude. What a blog troll.


On Apr 09 01:30 PM Cetin Hakimoglu wrote:

> I would not get bogged down on the charts too much. The markets are
> driven by fundamentals, not technicals; and the fundamentals are
> improving. Don't sit on the sidelines obsessing over trend lines,
> moving averages, and such.
>
> For the umpteenth time here are my top long picks:
>
> ewz fxi goog ma v aapl rimm bidu fslr oil kol clf mos pot ipi <br/>
>

Apr 09 02:21 PM

[Conan the B...:]

Diazamm: you are obviously following. Why not make a recommendation. We can all watch it.

Cetin: I'm really sorry to hear you say it. I do not ever buy anything based on Fundamentals alone. Charts are ingrained into every aspect of my investments.

The problem with using weeklies or monthlies is what makes them great in the first place, they give long term guidance.

But there is a tendency not to "see" turns which might be inflection points until well after the Fact. This is where Daily Charts shine.

With the volatility inherent in today's markets, I no longer use the weekly/monthly data for other than Identifying longer term resistance/support.

I know the direction. The rest will take care of itself.

I love Mr. Fry's charts and his sense of humor.

Different chartists use different methods, that's all.

IMHO

Apr 09 04:53 PM

[Conan the B...:]

Cetin: I use whatever I can. Pictures can help you sort out what should be bought now versus what can wait to be bought later.

Once I have a picture I like, I start going the Fundamental route.

I gave Loundesbury?, ALJ a few months ago when it was around $10. It is a major future infrastructure play. I first noticed it last year based on Insider buying. Did my DD and expect it to outperform for the next 30 months.

It has a very nice picture now. You have to go through their Annual to realize what they really have to offer.

There are just too many stocks to follow. Graphs allow me to involve myself in the most interesting, to me anyway.

Apr 09 11:37 PM

[JGL:]

David:
It is not clear to me when you buy or sell? Can you expand?
Also you show today Malaysia with a somewhat positive comment when the fundamentals for the country are pretty negative. Any further comments?

Apr 10 11:09 AM

[sacking:]

Dave
Love your charts and insights. I've been in ILF for awhile and am enjoying the ride. What do you think of VNQ? It could be a nice leading indicator as if real estate ever recovers the rest of the market will sure to follow.

And Cetin, please create your own commentary page. If we want your insights, we'll visit your page. As is, we're interested in what Dave has to tell us, thank you very much.

Apr 10 11:46 AM

[Hmm?!:]

Conan,

Just curious and you may not care. "Bank after Bank will report better than anticipated results"

Do you think the better than anticipated results will be legitimate turn around material or more smoke and mirrors? I have watched some fundamental credit analysts, raise flags about overstated asset values, but nothing about real earnings.


On Apr 09 10:32 AM Conan the Barbarian wrote:

> I rather enjoy seeing todays scramble.
>
> I'll enjoy it even more as Bank after Bank will report better than
> anticipated results and ALL of the Downtrend lines are broken on
> the SPX.
>
> I am long FAS, DXO, DAG and DYY as of Monday's close. (equal amts)
> I expect to exit them by April's end with an overall gain of at least
> 50%.
>
> Bragging, damn right, there are a few of us New Bulls who have been
> buying since early March.
>
> Hell, I'm up 10% on a closed end tax free muni, a tax free monthly
> yield of 10% annualized.
>
> Stick to your Bearish stance, when you start using daily charts maybe
> you will be able to see the Forest instead of a Few trees.
>
> IMO

Apr 11 02:47 AM