Steelcase Inc. (NYSE:SCS) is expected to report fiscal fourth quarter earnings on Wednesday, March 27th. The whisper number is $0.17, two cents behind the analysts' estimate. SCS has a 63% positive surprise history (having topped the whisper in 10 of the 16 earnings reports for which we have data).
- Beat whisper: 10 qtrs
- Met whisper: 2 qtrs
- Missed whisper: 4 qtrs
Our primary focus is on post earnings price movement. Knowing how likely a stock's price will move following an earnings report can help you determine the best action to take (long or short). In other words, we look at what happens when the company beats or misses the whisper number expectation.
The table below indicates the average post earnings price movement within a one and 30 trading day timeframe:
The strongest price movement of -4.6% comes within 2tr0 ading days when the company reports earnings that beat the whisper number, and +8.2% within 20 trading days when the company reports earnings that miss the whisper number (opposite reactor). The average price reaction (to the whisper number) is consistent (opposite) through 30 trading days when the company reports earnings.
The table below indicates the most recent earnings reports and short-term price reaction:
In the comparable quarter last year, the company reported earnings in-line with the whisper number. Following that report, the stock realized an 11.5% gain in five trading days. Last quarter, the company reported earnings in-line with the whisper number. Following that report, the stock realized a 0.3% loss in after hours trading, but gained 6.1% in five trading days. Overall historical data indicates the company to be an opposite price reactor following earnings (beat the whisper number and see weakness, miss the whisper number and see strength).
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Since 1998, WhisperNumber.com has been tracking and publishing "crowd sourced estimates" for earnings. We call these earnings expectations whisper numbers. Our whisper numbers are gained from individual investors and traders just like you that have registered with our site. While the whisper number itself is an important part of our analysis, a company's "price reaction" to beating or missing the whisper number expectation is the key. On average, companies that exceed the whisper are "rewarded," while companies that miss are "punished" following an earnings report.