Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

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It’s not that I’m bored or anything but a few more charts than normal just to give you a sense of the world. After all it isn’t just about the US anymore, that’s for sure. I’ll admit to a case of “acute bronchitis” as the doctor called it and in between coughing my brains out I may as well post some charts. I’ve always told readers if they have a particular market they’d like featured to write me at [e-mail] and I’ll do my best with it.

The house movers come tomorrow and I hope to post but will have to do it from my laptop which isn’t as convenient as having multiple screens.

Enough about me, let’s talk about the Fed. On second thought, let’s let them do the talking and leave it to others to parse their words. Obviously I’m not happy with the state of affairs. Who is? Maybe it’s just that I’m getting old and have seen enough bad actors in my time.

Let’s see what happens.

Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in SPY, MDY, IWM, QQQQ, XLY, XLI, XLB, IYR, IVE, DBC, USL, XLE, DBB, DBA, MOO, EFA, EEM, EWJ, EWA, EWZ, IEV, EWY, EWC, EIS, EWM, IFN, EZA and FXI.

The charts and comments are only the author’s view of market activity and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations aren’t predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author’s opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. Further details, including recommendations, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com.

Comments

[doubleguns:]

Kudlow seems happy with the state of affairs along with most of the others on the CNBC Emelt express. I am tired of his green shoots line like a broken record. Stocks down-green shoots. stock ups- green shoots, stocks sideways- green shoots, banks on brink of nationalization-green shoots.

Get the roundup.

Apr 29 05:32 AM

[Crudeman:]

Acute bronchitis huh....Been to Mexico lately?!? :>) Be well and keep up the great work.

Apr 29 06:34 AM

[fatcat:]

Its alright to talk about yourself,I feel like I know know you when I read your articles.

Maybe thats why you are the most popular writer on SA...

Great Job!

Apr 29 08:03 AM

[sheople:]

Thanks for the article. I still think Federales is a better name, though.

Apr 29 08:13 AM

[dirty_dirty:]

I've been trying to figure out how to use your charts for good! But I do enjoy your commentary! Keep up the excellent work and take care of yourself.

Apr 29 08:18 AM

[Shortstick:]

Agree. Kudlow and a few of the other Cheerleaders at CNBC are useless. They missed the Crash and I suspect they are way premature in the revival.


On Apr 29 05:32 AM doubleguns wrote:

> Kudlow seems happy with the state of affairs along with most of the
> others on the CNBC Emelt express. I am tired of his green shoots
> line like a broken record. Stocks down-green shoots. stock ups- green
> shoots, stocks sideways- green shoots, banks on brink of nationalization-green
> shoots.
>
> Get the roundup.

Apr 29 10:24 AM

[David White:]

Great article again David. From what I understand a lot of the individual investor money is still on the sidelines. A lot of what is driving the market right now is hedge funds. I would not be surprised to find out that the hedge funds are trying to create a buying fenzy going into May. They might get those worried about missing a move up to buy in. Then the hedge funds will sell everything in May to profit hugely from all of the frenzied investment by those afraid of missing an upward movement.

Trading is light. Perhaps the hedge funds really care in control of the market. If that's the case, you can't rely on the charts too heavily. They may move at the whim of the hedge funds. Those non-sensical chart movements you have commented on may be just that "non-sensical".

Apr 29 10:44 AM

[Shortstick:]

Is that the 'Broken Clock' syndrome?

Agree Bulls are in charge but there are a number of shoes to drop yet - State/Local Finances, Pensions, Comm'l R.E. and Fed Policies re: Energy and Taxes - To name a few.


On Apr 29 10:47 AM Cetin Hakimoglu wrote:

> Kudlow was right between 2002-2007...bears get 18 months of vindicsation..now
> the bulls are yet again in charge

Apr 29 11:07 AM

[cynewulf:]

I think the stress tests are bad, flawed, rinky dink bull juice. The Chinese should pull back for their own sake. It is every man for himself, because you can't trust the Fed., anymore then you could trust Ken Lewis.

Apr 29 11:11 AM

[LKofScotland:]

So the banks are out of the woods then since they get all that free taxpayer money and then get to loan it out a usurious rates? Or is it the other way around--the banks are in big trouble because they got all that free money and have decided to loan it out at usurious interest rates? Or is it the economy is in big trouble because the banks got all that free money and decided to loan it out at usurious interest rates? Or again, is it the other way around. I'm always confused by this profession. Anywho--nice charts--to me what stands out are the volume numbers--people are trading like crazy in this "cash starved" market place. And the price of a double cheese burger at McDonalds just went up 50%. That's the index i follow. Amazing how currencies suddenly "correct," no?

Apr 29 11:13 AM

[JGL:]

David, thanks a lot for your charts. One favor though: Could you try (soemtimes...) to be more direct in your comments such as sell, buy, stay out, get ready to xxx if xxxx

This would help us learn more on how you use the charts and then we can decide for ourselves!

In any case thanks again.

Apr 29 11:22 AM

[mrmillergd:]

Of course, Cetin, you neglect to mention that the bull market that it took ten years to build was detsroyed in 6 months.


On Apr 29 10:47 AM Cetin Hakimoglu wrote:

> Kudlow was right between 2002-2007...bears get 18 months of vindicsation..now
> the bulls are yet again in charge

Apr 29 11:26 AM

[Yankee Runn...:]

Kudlow the Clown is a Fractional Reserve Banking shill who is an air money pumper. His mission in life is to help the financial system pump air money in the so called "business cycle" He "gets it right" from 2002-2007. Who knew that air money was being pumped then?? Anyone who had an IQ larger than their shoe size.

Now when the system goes into Ponzi Finance and no one seems to be able to get their hands on the disappearing air money, Kudlow seems to have it all wrong. You have to understand the system and the part that Kudlow plays in it.

On Apr 29 10:47 AM Cetin Hakimoglu wrote:

> Kudlow was right between 2002-2007...bears get 18 months of vindicsation..now
> the bulls are yet again in charge

Apr 29 12:09 PM

[pchris:]

Cetin,

The reality is only Dave's subscribers get the benefit of the buy and sell signals. I know you're a registered FOOL member and your trading performance sucks. What's really useful is for you to take your self-promotional posts elsewhere. JMHO.



On Apr 29 11:47 AM Cetin Hakimoglu wrote:

>
> yea.. I agree though. Just drawing lines without buy/sell analysis
> or interpretation isn't very useful. JMHO
>
> On Apr 29 11:22 AM JGL wrote:

Apr 29 12:35 PM

[doubleguns:]

Its not constructive.

Apr 29 03:57 PM

[dcb:]

I owe you one david. bought dbb yesterday. it had lost 1/2 of gains and was just about to hit the 50 day moving avg. up about 5% today.!!!

Apr 29 06:34 PM

[dcb:]

how do we start a petition to ban him. I am glad you know his trading history also. based on his blog, I put him as one of the worst traders I have ever seen, but he pops up at the tail end of bear market and sound like he know what he is talking about. clearly he post 24/7 because he aint got no job. living in mommies basement and essentially broke. which is what you would be if you had been following his suggestions for more than the past 6 weeks.

I will tell you, as am MD this person has a diagnosed mental illness. If he doesn't have one, i'd be willing to put up big bucks and pay for the evaluation. If I had lost money for 1.5 years I would be a bit humble considering my six week track record. I know illness when i see it and this is it. He has admitted to being banned from sites before, how do we get that done here.


On Apr 29 12:35 PM pchris wrote:

> Cetin,
>
> The reality is only Dave's subscribers get the benefit of the buy
> and sell signals. I know you're a registered FOOL member and your
> trading performance sucks. What's really useful is for you to take
> your self-promotional posts elsewhere. JMHO.
>

Apr 29 09:05 PM

[dcb:]

I have asked you to make a buy and sell suggestion at a specific entry and exit point before, but you haven't. mr. "buy at the dips". Ass.


On Apr 29 11:47 AM Cetin Hakimoglu wrote:

>
> yea.. I agree though. Just drawing lines without buy/sell analysis
> or interpretation isn't very useful. JMHO
>
> On Apr 29 11:22 AM JGL wrote:

Apr 29 09:08 PM

[dcb:]

It has taken me a lot of work and effort to be able to understand what Mr. Fry is saying. I wish he would say a bit more, but I will tell you that spending time with his charts, and then adding things like bollenger bans, or moving averages helps. I still loose, but buy at support and shorten your stop losses at resistance is a fairly good strategy.
Or, wait, until support is established and then but, this will decrease gains, but less potential down side.

dave, why do you not include moving averages, or other metrics? I'd be interested to know that.

Apr 29 09:16 PM

[AndrewBaker:]

Well, Dave, there really is no direction right now, as the charts are telling us. On one hand, we've reckless bulls and commentators talking the market up against the fundamentals, and on the other hand, bears have been hit recently because of the bounce on hot air and not much more: so, stalemate.

We need more of the bad stuff out there, not bottled up as it is. Then we can take the correction, and look forward from there. It will happen; trouble is, just can't say when.

Apr 30 06:40 AM