Early in 2012 Scott's Investments added a daily Ivy Portfolio spreadsheet. This tool uses Google Documents and Yahoo Finance to track the 10 month moving average signals for two of the portfolios listed in Mebane Faber's book The Ivy Portfolio: How to Invest Like the Top Endowments and Avoid Bear Markets. Faber discusses 5, 10, and 20 security portfolios that have trading signals based on long-term moving averages.
The Ivy Portfolio spreadsheet tracks the 5 and 10 ETF Portfolios listed in Faber's book. When a security is trading below its 10 month simple moving average, the position is listed as "Cash". When the security is trading above its 10 month simple moving average the position is listed as "Invested".
The spreadsheet's signals update once daily (typically in the late evening) using dividend/split adjusted closing price from Yahoo Finance. The 10 month simple moving average is based on the most recent 10 months including the current month's most recent daily closing price. Even though the signals update daily, it is not an endorsement to check signals daily. It simply gives the spreadsheet more versatility for users to check at his or her leisure.
The page also displays if the percentage each ETF within the Ivy 10 and Ivy 5 Portfolio is above or below the current 10 month simple moving average, using both adjusted and unadjusted data.
If an ETF has paid a dividend or split within the past 10 months, then when comparing the adjusted/unadjusted data you will see differences in the percent an ETF is above/below the 10 month SMA. This could also potentially impact whether an ETF is above or below its 10 month SMA. Regardless of whether you prefer the adjusted or unadjusted data, it is important to remain consistent in your approach.
The current signals based on March 28th closing prices are below. Real estate and equities continue to lead while bonds and commodities are lagging, with BND and DBC trading below their 10 month moving average.
The first table is based on adjusted historical data and the second table is based on unadjusted price data:
As an added bonus I created a "Commission-Free" Ivy Portfolio spreadsheet. This document tracks the 10 month moving averages for four (up from three last month!) different portfolios designed for TD Ameritrade, Fidelity Charles Schwab, and Vanguard commission-free ETF offers.
Not all ETFs in each portfolio are commission-free, as each broker limits the selection of commission-free ETFs and viable ETFs may not exist in each asset class. Other restrictions and limitations may apply depending on each broker.
Below are the 10 month moving average signals for the commission-free portfolios: