When Will the Job Market Turn?

Excerpt from Raymond James Economist Dr. Scott Brown's latest economic commentary:

Nonfarm payrolls fell another 663,000 in March, while the unemployment rate rose to 8.5%. Since the recession began (in December 2007), the economy has lost 5.1 million jobs, with 3.3 million of that in the last five months alone. What’s worse, these figures understate the weakness in the labor market. Adding discouraged workers (those who have given up looking for a job and not officially counted as “unemployed”) and those that are working part time but would prefer full-time employment, the unemployment rate would be 15.6% (vs. 8.7% when the recession began). Granted the unemployment rate is a lagging indicator. Job losses will continue even as the economy begins to recover. However, we need to see some moderation in the pace of job losses to have hope that a recovery is near.

In terms of the percentage of lost jobs, this is already the worst decline since the Great Depression.

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Firms typically increase their hiring in the spring. Prior to seasonal adjustment, payrolls fell by 58,000 this March, vs. +588,000 in March 2008 and +892,000 in March 2007. This hiring season is likely to be poor.