For Tesla (TSLA) investors the stage is set for something to happen Tuesday (4/2). Elon Musk has sent us a tweet, we just heard Tesla is making money and we are all waiting breathless for Tuesday's coming dawn. Of course, Tuesday can bring good news for Tesla 'shorts' just as much as it can bring good news for Tesla 'longs.' Whatever the news, it very probably will involve a lot of money. Elon tweeted, "Am going to put my money where my mouth is in v major way," and he has quite a bit of money. If history is any guide, not all the 'money' involved will be Elon's...
Just because Tesla is making money doesn't mean they still don't need more cash, and if the 'good' news is a secondary offering, just in time to keep Tesla afloat and avoid one of those 'ongoing concern' statements from the auditors for Q2 (or even Q1?) then the news will surely be just what the 'shorts' are hoping to hear. This may, in fact be the most likely scenario.
There are at least three other kinds of things (and maybe more) that could reasonably be on Tesla's near-term horizon. Let's take a look.
Model S / Model X - Move Faster to Meet Demand
The latest intelligence coming out of Chautauqua County is that frunk liner production is about to surge. This can only mean Model S sales are running far ahead of plan and Tesla is struggling to keep up with demand. It could even explain Tesla's decision to delay Model X production - there simply may not be enough capacity on the Fremont line...
Could Tuesday bring news Tesla plans to expand production beyond California? Europe's car industry in the midst of an over-capacity crisis and Tesla is seeing lots of demand from Europe. Between closed auto plants probably up for sale to generous European Government subsidies, could Tesla be looking at a deal they can't refuse?
Gen III - Batteries on the Way Time for a New Line in Fremont
Better Li-ion batteries are on the way, and if production specifications for these batteries are starting to 'firm up,' Tesla may want to ramp up Gen III development and production earlier than planned. This might even include a 'joint platform development' with Toyota (TM) or Daimler (OTCPK:DDAIF). Even if Tesla went out to raise say $1 billion to support this kind of effort, it would be a push whether doing so would depress the stock or fuel the hype-cycle... (Note the use of the small 'b' billion...)
SuperChargers + Grid Connected Storage - Germany, Texas...
Wind-generated electricity is becoming a more and more important component of power supply in Europe as well as parts of the U.S. Demand side management, and particularly grid-connected storage systems that absorb wind power peaks for later use, are among the approaches being considered for maximizing the potential benefit from Wind generation. I looked in some detail at how SuperCharger stations with grid-connected storage batteries will handle more traffic and save on energy costs. Don't bother reading the article unless you have trouble sleeping - it is unconscionably long, for which I apologize in advance.
Tesla's Tuesday news might involve a move into grid-connected battery storage either with large batteries at SuperCharger stations and/or with smaller, Tesla-manufactured storage batteries integrated into home/commercial solar systems from SolarCity (SCTY). There has even been some talk of a Tesla - SolarCity - Panasonic (PC) merger.
Or, there could be something on Tuesday that is completely different, more wonderful, more exciting, more lucrative, or even more dire than any of us can yet imagine. See you Tuesday.