Forecasting the Forecasts (Spring Edition)

by: The Baseline Scenario

By Simon Johnson

Our forecast of official growth forecasts back in the fall turned out to be fairly accurate. My update of this assessment - for the new IMF numbers due out next week - is now online at

Many officials seem to have bought into some version of the “it’s a V!” take on the global recession. To me, this looks like wishful thinking. Whether or not you support the “V” view fully, officials should surely be spending more time preparing for worse scenarios.

Just in case - why not prepare properly for the cross-border resolution issues that would arise from the failure of a major global bank? Why did the G20 decline to take on this issue properly? Even the IMF’s baseline, I expect, will suggest potentially serious problems ahead.