A MOOve Toward Commodity Stocks

By Brad Zigler

Real-time Monetary Inflation (per annum): 8.0%

There's been tension building between commodity investors for some time now. One camp figures the futures market is the best place to trade, while the other advocates commodity stocks.

The equity players' position has been bolstered by recent buoyancy in stock prices as commodities have slowly simmered. The boiling point may well be nigh, though.

Wednesday, the Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSE Arca: MOO), an exchange-traded portfolio tracking the 44-member DAXglobal Agribusiness Index, scored its highest close since the retracement of last year's commodity tumble began. Ending the day at $30.73, the Market Vectors ETF punched through a critical resistance level that could lead to a run-up to the $40 level.

Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO)

The move also puts the Market Vector ETF's price ratio to the GreenHaven Continuous Commodity Index ETF (NYSE Arca: GCC) at a breakout level. The GreenHaven portfolio, which closed at $22.49 Wednesday, tracks the current iteration of the Commodity Research Bureau Index. Because of the equal weighting scheme of its underlying index, agricultural futures tend to be featured more prominently in the GreenHaven portfolio than they would in funds tracking other commodity indexes.

MOO/GCC Ratio

The commodity stock portfolio has spent the past three weeks building strength against the futures fund. On an upside breakthrough of the 1.37 level, the ratio has the potential to advance to 1.53 or higher.

That's not to say, however, that futures are going to just roll over and play dead in the coming weeks. There are, in fact, a number of seasonal trades that hold bullish promise in the agricultural sector.

Over the past 15 years, for example, a monthlong buy position in July coffee produced gains 12 times (80%) for an average profit exceeding $3,700. That's the equivalent of 9 or 10 cents per pound.

NYBOT/ICE warehouse coffee stocks are low now, having been drawn down below 1.1 million bags by roasters anxious about South and Central American supplies. Frost conditions in Brazil in coming weeks could impact the global coffee market, indirectly putting a squeeze on the coffee deliverable through the NYBOT/ICE July contract.

A seasonal trend line move would put July coffee at $1.27 per pound by May 19.

NYBOT/ICE July Coffee

Investors disinclined to use futures might use the iPath Dow Jones-AIG Coffee Sub-Index ETN (NYSE Arca: JO) to shoot for an $8 uptick from its current $35 level.