It's time again for my weekly gasoline update based on data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Gasoline prices fell again last week. Rounded to the penny, the average for Regular dropped four cents and Premium three cents. This is the fifth week of relatively small declines after eleven weeks of price rises. Since their interim high in late February, Regular is down 14 cents and Premium 13 cents.
According to GasBuddy.com, two states, Hawaii and California are averaging at or above $4.00 per gallon, down from three last week. Alaska fell off the list and is now the sole occupant of the $3.90 to $4.00 range.
Earlier this month Business Insider featured a chart illustrating the gasoline price trend over the course of a year.
However, if we dig into EIA the data, we find that over the past 20 years, the weekly high for the average retail price of all gasoline formulations occurred in May seven times, in August four times, twice in November and once January, April, June, July, September, October and December. February and March don't make the list. If history is a guide, odds are that the 2013 peak prices lie ahead. But maybe this time will be different.
How far are we from the interim high prices of 2011 and the all-time highs of 2008? Here's a visual answer.
Click to enlarge
The next chart is a weekly chart overlay of West Texas Intermediate Crude, Brent Crude and unleaded gasoline end-of-day spot prices (GASO). WTIC closed Monday at 97.07, up 6.78 over the past four weeks.
The volatility in crude oil and gasoline prices has been clearly reflected in recent years in both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE). For additional perspective on how energy prices are factored into the CPI, see What Inflation Means to You: Inside the Consumer Price Index.
Click to enlarge
The chart below offers a comparison of the broader aggregate category of energy inflation since 2000, based on categories within Consumer Price Index (commentary here).