I have not written about Mosaic (MOS) since December when it was trading at just under $55 a share. The shares have moved up some 8% since then but things are starting to turn up for this major fertilizer maker. Since I covered its competitor Potash (POT) yesterday, it seems appropriate to provide an update on Mosaic as it is impacted by some of the same dynamics:
Recent positives for MOS:
- The company recently reported third quarter profit that rose 26% Y/Y on higher and potash sales (up 37% Y/Y).
- The 37% rise in potash sales confirms BMO Capital Markets' thesis that potash is the sweet spot for fertilizer manufacturers and why it is bullish on Mosaic and Potash.
- TheStreet reiterated its "Buy" rating on the stock last week (Price Target:$69)
- Deutsche Bank just raised its price target to $64 from $62 as it expects stock buybacks to pick up in 2014 by more than $1.4B over its previous estimate.
The Mosaic Company produces and markets concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients for the agriculture industry worldwide.
4 additional reasons MOS still has upside from $59 a share:
- The stock sells at just over 13x trailing earnings, a significant discount to its five year average (19.3).
- The 12 analysts that cover the stock have a median price target of $85 a share on MOS, substantially above its current stock price.
- The company has a solid balance sheet with over $2B in net cash on the books and the stock sells for less than 11x forward earnings.
- MOS sells near the bottom of its five year valuation range based on P/S, P/CF and P/B. The shares also yield 1.7%.