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The US President is not yet a subscriber to my newsletter. But given his attention to Mexico and Cuba this week, one wonders that he somehow got a copy of my March issue: Saga North America: How The North American Oil Crisis Will Force Ottawa, Washington, and Mexico City to Confront One Another As Never Before.

In that report, I forecast the next oil crisis will unfold as Mexico loses the ability to export oil, starting sometime in late 2011.

obama-chavez

North American oil production was at its highest levels this decade in 2003, when oil traded in the 30’s. But then, over the next 6 years as oil rose to 150, North American oil production fell each successive year into 2008 to its lowest point in the last 10 years. And it’s still falling.

In this light, it would make sense that leaders in North America would start thinking about South America. And that means Brazil, and Venezuela. While I remain quite critical of Obama’s Energy and Economics Team, from Steven Chu to Jason Grumet, I have to believe the new administration is quite aware that Mexican oil production is on a collapse path, and that Canadian oil production has stalled.

Or perhaps not. Caption contest to the above photo:

Obama: Hey Hugo, did you ever think destroying your oil industry was not such a good idea? You know, kicking out all the big oil companies? Which you still need to develop your heavy oil in the Orinoco, by the way. You know, The Or-in-o-co?

Chavez: Don’t look at me, man. What about you with all this carbon and climate stuff? That’s gonna take out your army of stripper wells, which together account for nearly 20% of your production.


Photo: Pool photo by Mariamma Kambon via NY Times. Summit of the Americas, this week.
Source: Oil Production in the Americas