China Looks to Electrify Our Cars 36 comments
-
Font Size:
-
Print
- TweetThis
At the bottom of a recent New York Times article about China's burgeoning electric vehicle market, I found quite a few hostile comments. Most seemed to be nationalistic in tone, and questioned why we should rely on China for electric cars when GM, Chrysler and Ford (F) are all developing their own electric cars right now.
GM, Chrysler and Ford are all expected to have new electric vehicles in the showrooms within the next 2 to 3 years. And the truth is, if they can keep costs under control, I'm optimistic that demand will be strong. But it is also understandable that some folks are threatened by a potential Chinese electric fleet.
Look at it like this...
More than a decade ago, Honda (HMC) and Toyota (TM) moved forward with their own hybrid offerings, while Detroit arrogantly disregarded future demand. Some even went so far as to offer inferior hybrids in an attempt to disprove the hybrid advantage when it comes to fuel economy. The 2004 Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra hybrids are the perfect examples. These vehicles only added about 1 to 2 additional miles per gallon. Now who the hell is going to shell out all that extra money for a 1 to 2 mpg increase? Hardly anyone. And I suspect that this is exactly what the Detroit automakers were banking on. So today, it's no surprise that Toyota and Honda have sold more hybrids in the U.S. than our own domestic automakers. And while Detroit is now boasting its 41mpg Fusion Hybrid and its 29 mpg Malibu Hybrid, Toyota is celebrating 50 mpg with its 2010 Prius model. Certainly the Fusion has some advantages over the Prius, like more room and a potentially smoother ride – but folks looking for fuel economy are likely to hone in on that 50 mpg more than anything else.
The point is, Japan beat us to the punch on hybrid technology – and now they pretty much run the hybrid show. So when we hear about China potentially taking the reins on electric vehicle development (the next logical progression in fuel efficient vehicles), how could Detroit supporters not feel threatened?
After all, while the first plug-in hybrid electric vehicle manufactured by Detroit won't be available for at least another year, Chinese automaker, BYD (HKG:1211) began sales of its first mass-produced plug-in hybrid electric vehicle last December in China. It's called the F3DM, and it can drive 62 miles on a single charge, with a top speed of about 100 mph. Now it's only available in China right now, but the company does expect to bring it to Europe and the U.S. by 2011 or 2012.
Of course, BYD isn't the only automaker making waves in China. Just last week, the Renault-Nissan Alliance announced a partnership with China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology to bring Zero Emission Vehicles to China. Under that plan, Nissan (NSANY) will provide a blueprint for a charging network and programs for marketing electric vehicles, while the Chinese government moves forward on its pilot program to roll out new energy vehicles to the public transport sector in 13 different cities.
This is also the same alliance thats working to develop an electric vehicle infrastructure in Tennessee, Oregon, California and Arizona too. It's not just China that wants to electrify our cars, folks.
Japanese automaker, Mitsubishi will begin selling its electric vehicle, the iMiEV in Japan this July. That vehicle has an all-electric range of 80 miles, with a top speed of about 80 mph. The company also recently announced a partnership with Portland General Electric to help test these vehicles here in the U.S.
And don't forget about that electric vehicle juggernaut, Project Better Place. This is the organization that wants to implement its own electric car infrastructure in an effort to further electric vehicle development. Last November, Better Place announced that it plans to set up a network of charging stations in the San Francisco Bay area by 2012. And in December, the state of Hawaii and the Hawaiian Electric Company endorsed a plan to build a new electric vehicle network with Better Place.
Then there are all those aggressive start-ups that have already developed, tested or sold electric vehicles. These include, but are not limited to Tesla Motors, Phoenix Motorcars, and Aptera.
Competition is healthy, my friends. It promotes excellence, and weeds out mediocrity. I am certainly hopeful that Detroit will take a significant chunk of the electric vehicle market. But it will have to do so in a highly competitive marketplace. That's just a fact. And while some pro-Detroit consumers wave American flags and cast stones at foreign automakers, they would be wise to remember that few things are more patriotic than a responsible, free market system.
So will China take the lead in electric vehicle development? I have no idea. China is certainly not without its own issues. From sometimes questionable manufacturing practices to lack of oversight and regulatory systems in place (and enforced), China's not going to stroll into the U.S. market without extreme scrutiny. Moreover, China's competition will not be limited to Detroit. This is a global trend that will only continue to grow and evolve over the next few decades. And bottom line: It's not going to be where these things are made that determines the leader. It's all going to boil down to which company can bring a superior product to market, and at a reasonable and competitive cost. Everything else is just smoke and mirrors.
Related Articles
|
-
The Seeking Alpha 100
See allThe top 100 stock
market authors
selected for publication
Seeking Alpha 100 » -
Fastest Climbers
Authors with the largestSee all
increase in followers
in the last 7 days
Fastest Climbers » -
Top Commenters
Top commenters,See all
as ranked by their peers
Top Commenters » -
Top Instabloggers
The 100 most active
Instabloggers.-
1
David Fry
-
2
TraderMark
-
3
Don Dion
-
4
Cliff Wachtel
-
5
Mike Havrilla
Top Instabloggers » -
1
-
Top StockTalkers
TopSee all
StockTalkers.
Top StockTalkers »
This article has 36 comments:
Given a choice between providing E2W mobility 20 to 30 of its citizens or providing EV mobility to one of ours, the Chinese will always satisfy their home country demand first. So while we may be able to get excess capacity from China for a while, it will never be a long term supplier, particularly if the resource limitations that Jack Lifton has recently discussed are accurate.
seekingalpha.com/autho...
However, that battery technology is key to hybrids and plug-ins. China does not have the breadth of R&D that the U.S. has, but they will eat our lunch in important areas by duplicating leaders and throwing long term government money at these strategic technologies.
It looks like the U.S. under Obama is finally moving in the right direction with billions to support useful technologies, infrastructure etc., but it will be a race between this and potentially rapid decline brought about by income inequality, continued recession, protectionism and ruinous debt.
For a local runabout, or for people who live, work, shop in their own small area, batteries might be useful, but for those of us who actually spend time driving, it's not cost effective and it wastes time better spent having fun.
Also, BYD has a lot of work to do to improve safety, reliability, interior ergonomics (make it nice for first world customers), etc. So, I don't see BYD to be competing effectively in the US for a minimum of 5 years, though you may see some very low volume sales.
> jack
The Chevy Volt I'm sure, has all the parts of a normal gas car plus the electric parts, and maybe some more thrown in, so they'd have no problem selling you that $40,000 boondoggle.
With an all-electric car think of all the parts you won't need...Exhaust system,I remember the car I used to have that needed a muffler and tailpipe every year, Starter, alternator, radiator and hoses, water pump, emissions system, computer and related sensors and wiring, thermostat, oil and filters, and all the engine problems we used to have, we won't have because...no engine!
It's no wonder Detroit doesn't want to sell electrics, they can't fleece you as bad!
What arrogant fools these are that distroyed the diesel car market in the US in the late 80's with their remanufactured Olds gasoline engine/diesel engines. They think that we can't try another diesel to gain mileage with clean diesel technology developed since.
I don't want us to go out of the auto business because there are fools running the great auto manufactures in this country and I don't want to abandone the American made car. I applaude the efforts of the Obama administration with the tough love treatment they are giving Ford, GM and Chrysler
The Chinese will have the same problem but I doubt they care as they India and Europe will keep them busy.
We'll be very SAFE--even more so, as we cut our driving down to what we can afford---which will all go to Ford and Exxon.
Here's why: EVs depend on a robust power transmission grid. In the US, the grid is not only outdated, but fragmented in terms of ownership (anyone, seriously, can own part of a grid if they pay enough). States will not permit the fed's to exercise eminent domain for the new rights-of-way. Ergo, no grid.
Rick Perry and Texas are very much aware that the Texas Interconnect is an independent grid that they could control were the state to secede. The threat of secession and the resulting stress on the remaining North American grid will force Congress to let Texas do whatever it wants to. Reality check: EVs in territories with strong central governments: Asia, EU, Russia. Dream on, everyone else.
At $2 per gallon gas, and driving 12,000 miles per year, it would take 26.0 years to pay off the premium cost for the Prius. At $4 per gallon, it would take 13 years, of course.
An even better comparison would be the Honda Civic and the Hybrid Civic. The regular Civic gets 29 mpg and the hybrid 42. There is a $7545 difference in base price. Using the same calculations it would take 29 years to pay off the premium.
If you want to save the world, by all means, drive a hybrid. If you just want to save money....not a smart idea.
1. Where will the electric companies get the extra "clean burning", low sulfur coal without jacking up everybody's home electric bills?
2. Doesn't burning coal emit more CO2 per KWH energy generated than burning, say natural gas?
3. If electric companies start burning natural gas, won't that make the home natural gas bills go up?
Buy American, even if it does cost you a few extra bucks !
We need as many EVs and plug-in hybrids as we can get as fast as we can get them. There is a huge market for EVs waiting for them to be sold. Tesla, BMW (Mini E) and Aptera will be first to market here, but starting in late 2010, both the Chevy Volt and Nissan's hot new EV will hit the market and will sell as fast as they make them.
If you think an EV is not right for you, fine, keep burning gas and polluting your kid's air. However, there are millions of Americans who understand that pollution kills Americans and we don't want to do that anymore.
As for the grid's ability to handle the extra load, a recent Energy Dept. study concluded that there is enough excess capacity at night to charge over 180 million EVs without adding any new power plants. Most Americans waste more electricity every day than what they would use in an EV. If they just got efficinet and quit throwing energy away, they could use that energy to power their cars and never go to a gas station again.
I've driven my EV 70,000 miles over the past 6 years and every mile was driven on energy generated from a 3 kW solar system on my house. My electricity bill averages about $100 year and that's for the house and the car. None of my money goes to the opil companies, or by extension, the Saudis. Remember, it was oil money that funded those assholes who flew their planes into the towers and Pentagon. Every time you buy gas, you give them a little more money.
Like crushing the EV-1 and burying NiMH EV scale batteries, this is the hundred year GM corporate philosophy that can not be changed by bailout.
Most of the complaints about China's product quality are being made on PC's containing their chips, batteries, plastics, etc...
^You guys might want to read this........this is nothing but a chess game that China is playing against the world. Soon, it's going to be checkmate.
home.comcast.net/~bpayne37/pnmelectric...
False. Outdated grids have the following characteristics:
• Extremely high variable costs per kilowatt-hour.
• Large subsidies for residential users.
• Spotty coverage or unreliable voltage during non-peak hours.
In the “centralized” areas of the European Union, Asia and Europe you have any combination of those characteristics. In the U.S. and Canada there is none of that. But if you think paying 72¢ per kilowatt-hour is the sign of a great power grid, I’d love to know the name of your utility company.
Is that competition? Does that help the U.S. economy and American workers? Does it even help the average person in China gain a higher standard of living? Or just enrich the Chinese government and the new Taipans of China?
On Apr 19 10:24 PM User 142738 wrote:
> coreopsis: “In the US, the grid is not only outdated…”
>
> False. Outdated grids have the following characteristics:
> • Extremely high variable costs per kilowatt-hour.
> • Large subsidies for residential users.
> • Spotty coverage or unreliable voltage during non-peak hours.<br/>
>
> In the “centralized” areas of the European Union, Asia and Europe
> you have any combination of those characteristics. In the U.S. and
> Canada there is none of that. But if you think paying 72¢ per kilowatt-hour
> is the sign of a great power grid, I’d love to know the name of your
> utility company.
It would be best if you had some business background, particularly as a line manager, to understand the global dynamics in the auto industry.
Japan, as a domestic market of some 125MM people, had no alternative to expanding its highly profitable and high quality coachbuilding but to first, export, and then manufacture offshore.
China, with more than 10 times the population (excluding HK and Taiwan), has vast unfulfilled domestic demand.
It is possible that, eventually, the Chinese automakers will export in quantity or build in the US, but it is highly doubtful as this market is moribund. Those of us in business like growth, not negative growth.
The EV story is different and certainly the one to watch if you're interested in potentially cataclysmic change.
On Apr 20 07:09 AM Tim Miles wrote:
> The Chinese will benefit once again from their low cost labor and
> huge domestic market and then significantly underprice U.S. and other
> foreign firms in the world market. In a replay of what they did
> to assist Japanese automakers, Southern governors will help the Chinese
> auto industry establish a U.S. base in their states by giving them
> substantial tax breaks and other financial incentives and access
> to non-unionized workers.
>
> Is that competition? Does that help the U.S. economy and American
> workers? Does it even help the average person in China gain a higher
> standard of living? Or just enrich the Chinese government and the
> new Taipans of China?
3000 Lb Rav-4 EV and Nimh batteries (1/3less capacity than Lion) did easy 120 miles per charge and are still on the road today . That means if you were to stick Lion batteries in that old Rav4 EV it should do something like 360 miles on the single charge.
Did someone say Chevy Volt will do 40 miles on the single charge, or toyota Prius plugin will do 10 miles per charge on the state of the art Lion batteries. Where is the logic? This is nothing but smokescreen by major automakers. If China can produce real product, so be it. It is ashame that so many people will loose their job because GM an others have no vision. But then GM president and other management still will collect their multimillion dollar salaries even if their go chapter 11
Right away for those of not familliar with toyota Rav- 4 Electric, you can check it on Youtube and other sites. there is tonns of videos and other info ......That car really exists
What kind of profit margin do they have on these hybrids?
On Apr 19 10:11 AM a. palmer jr. wrote:
> Thanks for the well thought out story. I agree with the author on
> what he's written. American car companies are reluctantly bringing
> hybrids to market and are VERY reluctant to bring an all-electric
> car to market. The reason is because a well built electric car won't
> break down very often and Detroit won't be able to suck you into
> their dealerships for repairs and parts.
> The Chevy Volt I'm sure, has all the parts of a normal gas car plus
> the electric parts, and maybe some more thrown in, so they'd have
> no problem selling you that $40,000 boondoggle.
> With an all-electric car think of all the parts you won't need...Exhaust
> system,I remember the car I used to have that needed a muffler and
> tailpipe every year, Starter, alternator, radiator and hoses, water
> pump, emissions system, computer and related sensors and wiring,
> thermostat, oil and filters, and all the engine problems we used
> to have, we won't have because...no engine!
> It's no wonder Detroit doesn't want to sell electrics, they can't
> fleece you as bad!
I for one am sick and tired of being slapped down because I work in the automotive industry and my way of life differs from what you think it should be. For example – I don’t’ want an electric car…and neither apparently does anyone in or outside of California or Toyota would have jumped on the bandwagon and there wouldn’t be any discussion about who killed the EV1- so stop talking about it. Your market was the test and you failed…failed to promote it…failed to provide the infrastructure needed to support it…just plain failed because to few of your people were interested in them at the cost that would make them profitable to manufacture. On one hand you berate us because of the financial condition of the industry and on the other, you berate us for making the decision to cancel a program that clearly was not a going concern at the time.
I’m sick of hearing about the Prius….I don’t want one of those either. They are small expensive unappealing cars that will not meet my needs. I don’t just drive to work everyday with nothing more than a bag of golf clubs like the TV ads profess Californians are doing. In fact, I dare you to go stand in the middle of any one of your states boat launches and count the number of Prius’s towing and launching boats. Go to campgrounds in your state and count the number of Prius’s hauling travel trailers or snowmobile trailers in the snow covered mountains, or lumber and landscaping materials of any size and weight from the local Home Depot. Those are the things that the rest of us do in our spare time…so quit trying to shove the Prius down our throats. What I do want is an SUV, cross- over or truck that will meet all of my needs and at the same time be fuel efficient or flex fuel to reduce emissions and dependence on foreign oil. We have those…they are readily available in our own domestic fleet. They are Chevy’s, GMC’s, Fords, and Dodge and have been on the market for 10 years. The transplant car companies….aren’t there yet. They are still focusing on cars that burn gasoline. A car that gets 60 mpg still burns 17 gallons of gas every 1,000 miles versus a car that gets 20 mpg using E85 (my Chevy Impala) that burns 7.5 gallons of gas every 1000 miles. In my mind – the Prius is not the benchmark, my Impala is because it significantly reduces emissions and oil dependency. That’s where we should be investing our money. The infrastructure/R&D needed to produce Ethanol efficiently and economically whether it’s from our own rubbish, wood chips, switch grass or corn (coskata.com). Instead – we wait to see what some other country develops and ships over here thinking that they have our best interests at heart. How stupid and lazy of our leaders to think “ let someone else figure it out” is the answer.
I’m sick of being told we are idiots because we still build cars and trucks that pollute the earth that no one wants. The reality is that those ships in your harbors…yeah…those are the real polluters – (University of Colorado at Boulder (2009, February 27). Commercial Ships Spew Half As Much Particulate Pollution As World's Cars). Yet you say nothing about the fact that the 51,000 ships that traverse the earth daily bringing in imported goods including oil to our country emit the same amount of pollution as fifty percent of the total number of cars and trucks on this planet! And by the way – those Prius’s that you want us to buy…are manufactured overseas and you guessed it…shipped here and are sitting in your ports.
So the way I see it…the ships in your ports not only pollute the earth…they bring in goods from foreign countries that practice economic protectionism instead of reciprocation and ultimately cost us jobs. Did you know that Toyota will not allow your NUMMI assembly plant (Toyota/GM joint venture) to export the Toyota Carolla/Tacoma to Japan? Does that bother you? It should. The practice has a direct impact on California’s economy. As for building cars no one wants – the March sales numbers are out and the Detroit 3 outsold the Transplant 5 with Toyota behind General Motors and only slightly ahead of Ford by 8,000 vehicles. Did you really expect the domestic auto industry to maintain marketshare when we opened our market to free trade without first getting commitments from those other countries to open theirs?
At the end of the day – what California elected officials are doing is grandstanding and puffery at the expense of the rest of us and I’m not sure why. The ailing domestic auto industry has nothing to do with the economic state of California. On the other hand – the buying habits of Californians have everything to do with the economic state of the rest of the country…as we go…so do you. If I’m not working…I’m not buying…investing…or contributing and eventually via the trickle…. neither are you.
On Apr 20 10:22 PM slowdown wrote:
> With respect to the Californian elected officials and other critics
> that seem to be hell bent on telling the rest of the country what
> we are doing wrong – look in the mirror.
> I for one am sick and tired of being slapped down because I work
> in the automotive industry and my way of life differs from what you
> think it should be. For example – I don’t’ want an electric car…and
> neither apparently does anyone in or outside of California or Toyota
> would have jumped on the bandwagon and there wouldn’t be any discussion
> about who killed the EV1- so stop talking about it. Your market was
> the test and you failed…failed to promote it…failed to provide the
> infrastructure needed to support it…just plain failed because to
> few of your people were interested in them at the cost that would
> make them profitable to manufacture. On one hand you berate us because
> of the financial condition of the industry and on the other, you
> berate us for making the decision to cancel a program that clearly
> was not a going concern at the time.
> I’m sick of hearing about the Prius….I don’t want one of those either.
> They are small expensive unappealing cars that will not meet my needs.
> I don’t just drive to work everyday with nothing more than a bag
> of golf clubs like the TV ads profess Californians are doing. In
> fact, I dare you to go stand in the middle of any one of your states
> boat launches and count the number of Prius’s towing and launching
> boats. Go to campgrounds in your state and count the number of
> Prius’s hauling travel trailers or snowmobile trailers in the snow
> covered mountains, or lumber and landscaping materials of any size
> and weight from the local Home Depot. Those are the things that
> the rest of us do in our spare time…so quit trying to shove the Prius
> down our throats. What I do want is an SUV, cross- over or truck
> that will meet all of my needs and at the same time be fuel efficient
> or flex fuel to reduce emissions and dependence on foreign oil. We
> have those…they are readily available in our own domestic fleet.
> They are Chevy’s, GMC’s, Fords, and Dodge and have been on the market
> for 10 years. The transplant car companies….aren’t there yet. They
> are still focusing on cars that burn gasoline. A car that gets 60
> mpg still burns 17 gallons of gas every 1,000 miles versus a car
> that gets 20 mpg using E85 (my Chevy Impala) that burns 7.5 gallons
> of gas every 1000 miles. In my mind – the Prius is not the benchmark,
> my Impala is because it significantly reduces emissions and oil dependency.
> That’s where we should be investing our money. The infrastructure/R&a...
> needed to produce Ethanol efficiently and economically whether it’s
> from our own rubbish, wood chips, switch grass or corn (coskata.com).
> Instead – we wait to see what some other country develops and ships
> over here thinking that they have our best interests at heart. How
> stupid and lazy of our leaders to think “ let someone else figure
> it out” is the answer.
>
> I’m sick of being told we are idiots because we still build cars
> and trucks that pollute the earth that no one wants. The reality
> is that those ships in your harbors…yeah…those are the real polluters
> – (University of Colorado at Boulder (2009, February 27). Commercial
> Ships Spew Half As Much Particulate Pollution As World's Cars).
> Yet you say nothing about the fact that the 51,000 ships that traverse
> the earth daily bringing in imported goods including oil to our country
> emit the same amount of pollution as fifty percent of the total number
> of cars and trucks on this planet! And by the way – those Prius’s
> that you want us to buy…are manufactured overseas and you guessed
> it…shipped here and are sitting in your ports.
> So the way I see it…the ships in your ports not only pollute the
> earth…they bring in goods from foreign countries that practice economic
> protectionism instead of reciprocation and ultimately cost us jobs.
> Did you know that Toyota will not allow your NUMMI assembly plant
> (Toyota/GM joint venture) to export the Toyota Carolla/Tacoma to
> Japan? Does that bother you? It should. The practice has a direct
> impact on California’s economy. As for building cars no one wants
> – the March sales numbers are out and the Detroit 3 outsold the Transplant
> 5 with Toyota behind General Motors and only slightly ahead of Ford
> by 8,000 vehicles. Did you really expect the domestic auto industry
> to maintain marketshare when we opened our market to free trade without
> first getting commitments from those other countries to open theirs?
>
>
> At the end of the day – what California elected officials are doing
> is grandstanding and puffery at the expense of the rest of us and
> I’m not sure why. The ailing domestic auto industry has nothing
> to do with the economic state of California. On the other hand –
> the buying habits of Californians have everything to do with the
> economic state of the rest of the country…as we go…so do you. If
> I’m not working…I’m not buying…investing…or contributing and eventually
> via the trickle…. neither are you.
On Apr 20 03:19 PM jerrion wrote:
>
>
> What kind of profit margin do they have on these hybrids?
On Apr 21 12:35 AM hondaicivic wrote:
> Let me guess.....you're a United Auto Worker and you've just been
> laid off? You drink Budweiser and watch Nascar and eat hamburger/stead
> on a daily basis don't you. Now I know why you're angry. I think
> you got the "white angry male syndrome"
and no...I haven't been laid off yet and I like chicken better than beef. What the hell does any of this have to do with my post?
On Apr 21 12:35 AM hondaicivic wrote:
> Let me guess.....you're a United Auto Worker and you've just been
> laid off? You drink Budweiser and watch Nascar and eat hamburger/stead
> on a daily basis don't you. Now I know why you're angry. I think
> you got the "white angry male syndrome"
On Apr 19 11:13 AM JET1C wrote:
> Anyone remember that Ford, I believe it is, that has a very successful
> diesel car in Europe which they won't bring to the US because they
> think that people here are anti-diesel.
>
> What arrogant fools these are that distroyed the diesel car market
> in the US in the late 80's with their remanufactured Olds gasoline
> engine/diesel engines. They think that we can't try another diesel
> to gain mileage with clean diesel technology developed since.
>
> I don't want us to go out of the auto business because there are
> fools running the great auto manufactures in this country and I don't
> want to abandone the American made car. I applaude the efforts of
> the Obama administration with the tough love treatment they are giving
> Ford, GM and Chrysler
After the Nova was totalled in a head-on collision, I decided to give Mazda a try and bought the GLC. It was a "Great Little Car". That's when Detroit lost me as a customer. Since then, I have owned Honda Accord & Civic and Toyota Sequoia. Prior to buying the Sequoia 3 years ago, I looked at Fort Expedition and Explorer, inquired about Chevy Tahoe. I finally decided on Sequoia because of overall quality and finishing.
For work, I used trucks from all Detroit 3. Generally, Ford was the best, Chev & GMC in the middle and Chrysler/Dodge was the worst. I will never buy Chrysler truck.
I believe the decline of Detroit began when they gave up the small car market. The foreign brands seized the opportunity and never looked back since. The same thing happened in TV & stereo. I have seen it happen in other industries when the leading local firms gave away the less profitable sector of their business to the newcomers and live to regret it. I personally admire Microsoft's "take no prisoner" approach to business domination. Never give the newcomer to get established and take business away from you. Detroit 3 will have to fight hard to win back customers. By the way, I like Corvette. Just may buy it for my retirement car.
I think the automobile industry is in for major re-alignment and may even shrink in the coming years. Cars just last longer. My Accord lasted me 15 years before I sold it after the kids left home. Sequoia is 7 years now and is still going strong. Civic is 3 years old, It should last a long time as it is only for running around town.
As for electric cars, the transistion will take a long time. I am quite sure I will still be driving gasoline powered car for the next 20 years. Only time will tell whether the local or transplant manufacturers will prevail. I don't believe Chinese manufacturers will be a factor in the foreseeable future.
On life cycle computation of carbon footprint, some studies have shown that hybrid is not much better than regular gasoline powered cars.
In China, the locals actually prefer foreign cars if they can afford it. When I was there, Buick & Jeep were doing quite well. Buick was actually considered mid- to high end. So did Honda, Toyota, Nissan & Mitsumishi. Many of these foreign cars were assembled locally. I believe Chinese government has either reduced or eliminated import duties on foreign cars since joining WTO. According to government's number, 10% of Chinese have achieved middle class and that is 130 million people. They like to buy things. One of them is car. So, car market is growing like crazy. I have not come across any electric cars when I worked there.
As for comment about the condition of highways & inner city roads in China, please be advised that they are for the most part at par with those in developed country. They may be even better because they are new. I know because I worked there for 3 1/2 years and travelled fairly extensively. These roads are quite often full of vehicles just like LA.