Cramer's Stop Trading! The Bears' Big Bluff (4/17/09)

Stocks discussed on Jim Cramer's Stop Trading! TV Program, Friday April 17.

Google (GOOG), Masco (MAS), JP Morgan Chase (JPM)

Cramer insists the market is not going down and pointed to Google and Masco which are performing well in spite of a weak housing starts number. "Everybody wants this market to pull back," Cramer said. He went on to discuss a "game of bluff" that was going on with the bears trying to bring down financials; "They are not even willing to read the story before they are telling you how bad things are. But it is not working out for them." Concerning the banks, Cramer predicts the good banks are going to buy up the bad banks and JP Morgan is going to use the opportunity to build up a national network.

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Comments

[ECONOMICS 101:]

I don't agree with Jim Cramer on this. Things will get worse,

Too many people are unemployed.

Johnathan Vrozos
johnathanvrozos.ca

Apr 19 08:36 AM

[johmw:]

Cramer is wrong so often why would anyone listen to him, to quote Mr.Ruibini "Jim Cramer is a Buffoon" He was wrong last year about financial stocks and even a stand up comedian like Jon Stewart could see how he misinforms his viewers. I pity anyone that would take advice from Cramer, my friends and I read his picks just as a form of comic relief.

Apr 19 08:58 AM

[wharfrat1940:]

I agree with Jim Cramer! The market is has been extremely strong over the last 6-7 weeks and it doesn't want to go down. While I think there are certainly risks, individual stocks are making a powerful rebound and I am buying. I am also making sure that I include "stops" and take some profits along the way.

As for the banks, I really think Jim makes a good point. There are some very strong banks out there that would have survived this mess and didn't want or need Government money.

RAT

Apr 19 09:00 AM

[BrunoT:]

"It doesn't want to go down" ? This is a market, not a living entity. It doesn't "want" to do anything. It reflects the expectations and conditions that exist, that's all.

Apr 19 09:14 AM

[p church:]

Well put Bruno T. Cramer can give give a good account of the attitudes of a segment of the population. Not usually the segment you would want to be in sync with but hepful to trade when you see how one group is thinking. If he can help pump up the current rally a little more, I can continue to sell into it. The summer months of 2000 and 2001 (periods of pessimism not even rivaling the current attitudes) provide a possible clue for what is coming and that should be a pretty good pullback.

Apr 19 10:27 AM

[curious cat:]

dear brunot,
mr market has feelings, you know. next, you'll be telling kids there is no santa. think, man. what will happen to all the fat, alcoholics? where will it end? are we to turn out the astrologists, the technicians and the hat passers, too? don't we have enough unemployed? society has conventions for a reason. it makes it easier to talk about our impaired family members. i beg you to play along. don't look behind the curtain.
sincerely, the great and powerful oz, i mean, "OZ!"

Apr 19 10:45 AM

[ifuwish2:]

well you finally said something that i agree on,,the banks will do good no matter what and the markets will keep going, they will have their pullback but the market will keep going

Apr 19 10:48 AM

[AuGod!:]

The Banks will do well and buy up other banks. Sure, why not? They aren't lending and need something to do with their "bailout" money after they profit from this rally which they instigated. As for the rally itself, it is a bear rally and smart money will bail in advance of the big sell off, probably in June, leaving the dummies holding the bag. As for Cramer, though factually correct enough here in this instance, he is just a shill. But it is fair to observe that the market will survive although much diminished even from its present lamentable state and banks are integral to our monetary system. Do the math. Take profits. Sleep well.

Apr 19 11:40 AM

[107Sid:]

Most of the "smart" money is saying that stocks remain very cheap on a long term basis, but because of the recent run-up they would not chase the market now. However they want to initiate or add to positions on pullbacks; in other words they have money on the sidelines that is looking for an opportunity to get in. The odds are that the longer the underlying trend remains upwards, more and more of them will capitulate and add to long positions (even if at higher levels).
Smells like the classic "climbing a wall of worry".

Apr 19 11:52 AM

[InvestBaboo:]

Cramer is right on the money but unfortunately many will not listen to his advice. That is because he is like the kid from that story who cried wolf once too many times and when the real wolf did show up no one heeded his calls.

Cramer is correct when he says that the market will not pull back to give those that missed an opportunity to get back on the bus. If you just sit and watch the buy and sell programs hit the NYSE you will notice that anytime a decent magnitude Sell program hits sending the indices lower soon there is a corresponding Buy program hits sending the indices back higher. That is because a small section of those that missed the rally see every little correction as a buying opportunity. Also, the previous market lows were driven by fears and rumors of an imminent banking collapse which have proven to be simply not true. Therefore, you will not see a pullback or a correction to this rally. What you are likely to see is that the market exceed what is a fair valuation (which by some measures may be as high as Dow 9000 and S&P 950) -- overshoot those by 5 to 15% -- and then pull back giving an opportunity for those that missed the ride to get on the bus. So the most prudent course of action ofr those on the sidelines to get on the bus NOW because this ride is far from over.

Friends, ride the trend till the bend at the end and as I have been saying repeatedly there ain't no bend I have seen as of yet.

Apr 19 12:40 PM

[unrepentent:]

Cramer has to be taken with a salt lick! How many followers were creamed last year by his 'I ran a real Hedge Fund' Expertice? OR 'I have a personal relationship with Company Pres/CEO Blah Baggs and he always is 100%, a guenuine person to be trusted ! We can trust him!" Normal stock pickers are restricted from going that far...not this guy (NBC Lawsuits?)!!!!

He argues for gold stocks at the top. Doesn't shift to bonds and equity cash balance are often trashed before he says...I advised viewers of The Street .com (which I dreamed up and am Chairman of) some time earlier that we should sell _____ and ___, which are simply my honest mistakes.

He should be on another Channel (Comedy Channel after Colbert) ...You listening NBC ? The CNBC 'Panel of Traders' should be risk enuff for NBC.

Apr 19 02:39 PM

[FourBrane:]

I'm no Cramer fan, but even a stopped clock is right two times a day. The bears here sound too confident and certain that they "know" what's going to happen and that's an alarm bell.

Unemployment numbers don't matter as much as some here seem to think. 90% of the newly-unemployed were barely making a living to begin with as, sadly, the first to go are always the ones who can afford it the least. Fat cats never lay themselves off, so the impact is always disproportionately directed to low-pay jobs. Hence, the economic impact is less than you might think.

The consensus appears to be that we'll be seeing an upturn in the economy by the fourth quarter, even though unemployment won't come down until much later next year. But the unemployed don't buy airplanes, new co-generation units, etc.

A summer pull-back, if seen, will be nothing more than the usual "everyone's-away-at-th... thing that happens every year.

Apr 19 05:39 PM

[Brent C.:]

I agree with those who say the market isnt going to have a major correction. Any time there is a pull back there is new money jumping in. New money is also going in to laggard stocks that have been slow to take part in the rally.

The bears have been touting a major pull back for the past month and the press has been giving them lots of air space to make their case.There is great irony in the fact that this bearish noise has kept the rally constrained and orderly and has prevented panic buying that can lead to strong reversals. It has also kept expectations extremely low so that "better than expected" results are the norm.

I encourage the bears to keep up their negative rants.

Apr 19 06:04 PM

[Dustinian:]

Cramer is an idiot.

Apr 20 01:11 AM

[BadCompany:]

Can someone point to a link or a clip in which this market clairevoyant, Cramer, predicted the crash?

Apr 20 02:12 AM

[default1:]

Cramer is such a doosh bag. When the market was tanking in March he was blaming Obama. When the market rallied, 'Obama is the man'! When this latest rally fails and we eventually head back down, who or what is he going to blame ? I guarantee we will get another one of his rants, ie. 'they know nothing'. Mr. Cramer got to go.

Apr 20 12:02 PM

[Responsibility:]

One way to look at the situation is from value point of view:
1. Is there value to keep cash that is bringing in only low income, so low that any devaluation and/or inflation will wipe out any such income, particularly if the economy gets worse?
2. Is there value to buy commodities that will drop in price if the economy gets worse?
3. Is there value to buy gold at current high price if the market capitalization gets worse, making gold at such price to be unaffordable just like oil at $150 a gallon?
4. Is there value to invest in reasonably good companies with responsible management to revitalize the economy?
5. Is the management of the financial markets is being corrected from past excesses, including effective restriction of uncontrolled short selling by speculators?
6. Is people realizing the problems associated with their indulgence in wasting resouces, greed, speculative trading, unaffordable living styles, etc, etc?

The market has hope if we hear more "no" to questions 1-3 and more "yes" to questions 4-6; I am beginning to think so.

Apr 21 11:50 AM