High Sirius Volume Begets... High Volume

Many years ago, I was looking for a stock to trade. When I checked the most active boards, I noticed a relatively low priced stock sitting at about a dollar a share that had the highest share volume on the NASDAQ. I decided to check into it and discovered it was a fairly new technology company that I had never heard of nor was I likely to have any interest in, aside from a financial one.

It just happened to be Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI). I got in at precisely the right time, because the stock was trading at over 2.00 just 1 week later. I had made enough money on it at that point to double up my position with a cost basis that remained substantially lower than the current pps. Several weeks later, it was trading at 3.00 a share. I can still recall the celebrations, but it didn't end there. I sold at over 9.00 a share. During that time, Sirius had one constant. Its share volume remained among the top 10 most actively traded stocks.

Just as I was able to see the triangle chart pattern developing before it completed, I'm getting that feeling of deja vu. I've been here before. I've seen this before. As volume spikes in an equity, it begins to show up on more and more radar screens. I'm not referring to retail investors and the day traders that have moved the stock in recent months. I'm referring to the large instutional money managers that have been noticably absent.

As more money managers go long the stock, less shares become available on the open market. Last week's trading brought with it a buy side order imbalance which hasn't occurred in years. Simply put, buyers outnumbered sellers.

High volume begets high volume as shares are frantically bought in the open market, which in turn has a positive effect for those long the equity. That doesn't mean it will go straight up, but buying the dips becomes more likely by smart money, so long as "the trend is your friend" remains the theme.

Disclosure: Long SIRI

Comments

[relmar2003:]

Too many people fail to realize how long "trends" can last. They look at price vs. time. Sorry. Time is WAY more important than price.(at least until its valued correctly). Timewise, this trend is still new, and developing. I hate to use the term "story", but this story of its recovery is still very new to most people. Some are still considering buying it for the first time. When these people become convinced, its lights out. We will shoot past valued, and go right to overvalued. Wow, to think SiriusXM might be overvalued in under a year gets me excited. Look at the year chart. We are on the right side of the trade this time. For all who held and added on the bottom, good job, you are about to be rewarded. Dont sell too soon, but dont bet this pig cant tank either. Be very nimble, and on your feet from here on out(over .50 cents.).

Apr 20 05:54 AM

[relmar2003:]

By tank, I feel .40 cents SHOULD be the new bottom. .42 area. That would be a tank for me now. If it broke and closed under .40 cents from here on out, I would be extremely surprised. When are those "takedown" attempts coming? Not until overhead resistances are hit a few times, and fail to break. So far so good.

Apr 20 05:56 AM

[SRK:]

siriusxm.ws DIG Deeper

Apr 20 07:51 AM

[GOPmatt:]

I bought at $.061 @ 100,000 with some leftover money that I got from selling a stock I took a beating on. So I figured eithers its gunna flop or ill get 5x my money. Well so far its a little over 900% I just don't know if I should sell or keep it for a while. Cuz I got back luck when it comes to waiting out to make more.... what do u guys think. Emai. [e-mail]

Apr 20 08:40 AM

[Neal Barkett:]

When I 1st got involved in buying Sirius it was at the 1.60 level years ago. I didn't even own a sat radio. But then when I became a sub, I fell in love w/ the product (a common scenario I'm sure). I played the ups & downs and made money. Then it hit 9.00 or so and I jumped in all the way when it dropped to around 7.00 (I bet w/ my heart not my head). I was a big Imus fan and he was ga ga over the stock once his buddy Mel jumped on board. So for years I've been buying more shares over the years as the sp dropped. I'm @ an average of about 1.50 a share. Even if this stock should hit the 1.50 again I'm sitting tight. I think Brandon is right on the mark. Although the dilution of this stock makes the hill up a steeper climb. This comes down to content and the future capabilities to reach more & more people. Yes there is competition and there always will be. Yet what they offer is still unique. The I-Pod is great! But it's not comparing apples to apples. It has no content of its own. The other new tech gadgets like Blackberries etc. will be part of our marketing capabilities. All arrows on the Sirius Xm control panel are pointing North. As this economy recovers this company is getting so well positioned that it will be unstoppable in its expansion. What we see know in the rising share price will be dwarfed when we look back a few years from know. But I will admit I was wearing “DEPENDS” a few months ago. But I’m proud to say I’m back to wearing “Big Boy Underwear” (but I stuck it out)! Don’t laugh, Nascar drivers wear them!

Apr 20 09:11 AM

[ScroogeMcduck:]

I LOVE HOW YOU ALWAYS BRAG AT THE START OF EVERY ARTICLE BRADON, ACTUALLY ITS RATHER PATHEDIC.

Apr 20 12:24 PM

[tech man:]

A LITTLE TESTY TODAY UH SCROOGEMCDUCK, BRAGGING IS O.K. IF YOU HAVE SOMETHING TO BRAG ABOUT. AND SIRI IS SOMETHING TO BRAG ABOUT. WE ARE FIXIN TO GO PLACES WITH SERVICE. SO, YOU NAYSAYERS, YOU HAD YOUR TIME,BUT YOUR TIME IS UP. NAB, YOU TIME IS SURELY UP. POOR CONTENT, ADVERTISEMENTS GALORE, STUPID TALK SHOWS WHO TRY TO BE FUNNY BUT FAIL TERRIBLY. IT IS TIME FOR SOME REAL RADIO, SIRI-XM IS THE NEW KID ON THE BLOCK AND HERE TO STAY. LOOK OUT BOYS AND MOVE OVER CAUSE HERE COMES THE BIG BOYS. T.M.

Apr 20 01:02 PM

[tivoboy:]

I bought it at .07, and sold it at .30, I should have kept it, but heck I couldn't go back in the .30's, but now I am ACTUALLY considering a re-entry with some of the proceeds. At a .05 price, it was an option play, buying 200K shares of anything is always a bit spooky, but heck, it worked out then.

Apr 20 01:42 PM

[yomann:]

Did we see a short squeeze today on inside info of the quartlery report being better than expected? yo

Apr 20 01:57 PM

[matty3000:]

What do you guys think of HAYZ? sorry to be off topic

Apr 20 03:38 PM

[connorport:]

Not a good choice right now! Maybe @ .05. Unless you want a lottery pick.


On Apr 20 03:38 PM matty3000 wrote:

> What do you guys think of HAYZ? sorry to be off topic

Apr 20 04:28 PM

[connorport:]

If you want a good lottery ticket try XDSL. They just invented the first battery with an indefinite shelf life that's also green. In the process they invented a glass that is self cleaning. Micro Tech companies have jumped on board and so has the insiders. Heavy insider trading tells me that they have faith in what they have invented. check it out.

Apr 20 05:07 PM

[matty3000:]

ty connor- unloaded my siri today at .62. I bought in at .16 so I've done well thanks to you all. I put a limit order for .45 hoping to ride the next wave.

Apr 20 06:07 PM

[Mrcody:]

How much did you make today Brandon?

Apr 20 07:01 PM

[Timeline St...:]

You can make a lot of money from people with goatees, if you just put your mind to it.

Apr 21 07:33 AM