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FIRST COVERAGE WEEKLY SENTIMENT (April 21, 2009)

First Coverage
Market Sentiment:
Bearish
First Coverage
Index:
48.5
Weekly
Change:
+0.8%
Sell-Side Certainty:
Positive
Bullish
Industries (3,+1)
Neutral
Industries (2,-2)
Bearish
Industries (5,+1)
Weekly
Sentiment Change
Basic Materials (-)
Bearish
Consumer Goods (-)
Bullish
Consumer Services
Bullish
Financials
Health Care
Bullish
Industrials (-)
Oil & Gas
Technology(+)
Bullish
Telecommunication (+)
Utilities
Bearish

Watch that first step - it’s a doozy!
Last one out of the rally turns off the lights ‘cause this party’s over! Or, at least the sell-side still believes.
Like a rolling stone gathers no moss and something in motion stays in motion, we need to wait for the sell-side to demonstrate a larger shift to the upside (of at least more than 1.0%) to determine they have started getting bullish in discussions with their buy-side client base. Movements in sentiment less than 1.0% historically have meant to stay in the same direction you previously were and that is short the market according to the sell-side.
If you have to be something…then be short! If you can just pocket your 30% run-up and go to cash, all the better! But, whatever you do, the sell-side is still convinced (as they were last week) that this market is going down.
Same rules apply at the industry level, but here the sell-side, servicing their clients that have to be long in this market, are offering up some clearer insight as to where to allocate their capital. Industries that were bearish last week, but have turned bullish by more than a full percent indicating a shift in sentiment direction to the upside, include Consumer Goods, Health Care, Oil & Gas and Technology. Industries that were bearish last week, and continue to be bearish this week, include Basic Materials and Utilities.
For those wondering what specific stocks the sell-side is suggesting to their buy-side clients in a down market, wonder no longer. Here are the top five going into Tuesday’s market open:

Ranking

Symbol

Company

1

JPM

JP MORGAN CHASE CO

2

ORCL

ORACLE CORP

3

TEVA

TEVA PHARM INDS AD

4

SNDA

SHANDA INTERACTIVE

5

SY

SYBASE INC

Last week’s top three, Dollar Tree, Visa and Wal-Mart have now fallen to 6th, 15th and 26th most bullish by sentiment respectively.
And for the more bearish amongst you the five stocks with the most bearish sentiment surrounding them this week are:

Ranking

Symbol

Company

1

GRMN

GARMIN LTD

2

BBT

BB&T CP

3

WFC

WELLS FARGO & CO NEW

4

FSLR

FIRST SOLAR, INC.

5

CA

CARREFOUR

Source: First Coverage Weekly Street Sentiment: April 21, 2009