Forex: EUR/USD Tests The $1.2950 Ahead Of Jobs Report- More To Come?

 |  Includes: ERO, EU, EUO, FXE, UDN, UUP
by: FXstreet

Mario Draghi took the scene after the ECB monetary policy meeting saying that the template is not a template, that country A is not the Country B, the eurozone's recovery will start its engines in the second half of 2013 if the risk is no longer a risk and that banking system is safe in the eurozone. Then markets considered that the single currency was too cheap compared to the Greenback or the Japanese yen and it was the fiesta.

The EUR/USD is closing the session near to the $1.2950 level after recovering more than 200 pips in the American session from the lowest level in 2013 at $1.2740. The movement came after the ECB's president Mario Draghi speech, but in the time between the interest rate decision and his speech, the EUR/USD declined 90 pips from $1.2830.

Another pair that joined the situation was the EUR/JPY with an impressive rally from $119.20 to reach the highest level since March 15 at $124.55. More than 535 pips in a one single session, the best since November 2008. the Yen was trading weak on the session following the BoJ's aggressive stimulus program.

The movement on the USD/JPY was impressive too. With around 370 pips from 92.70 to trade close to multi-year highs reached in march at $96.40, the dollar gained 3.40% on the day against the Yen. The Yen traded lower and lost ground against its major competitors. EUR/JPY (+4.10%), USD/JPY (+3.40%), GBP/JPY (4.15%) and AUD/JPY posting big advances.

Between ECB and NFP

Back to the euro, the EUR/USD is hovering over $1.2950 after a wave of buying interest lifted the cross from fresh 2013 lows around $1.2740. The unexpected boost was charged on short covering, but it was in the middle of the American session, when rising stocks finally triggered stops above $1.2880 and saw the pair accelerating towards $1.2950 price zone.

In the meantime, employment data disappointed again in the U.S., with weekly claims up to 385K highest level of the year, following Wednesday's ADP negative reading. One may suspect investors are already pricing in a negative NFP number.

"But until the report is released, the hourly chart shows price consolidating near the high, with indicators deep in overbought territory, and price showing no aims of correcting lower," comments Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik. As for the short term, Valeria points that "in the 4 hours chart, price broke well above 20 SMA and indicators head north above their midlines, which supports an upward continuation towards $1.3000, the next big figure. Bears will remain reluctant as long as price holds above $1.2880 level."

However, many experts are still bearish in the EUR/USD. Westpac's Global FX Strategist Sean Callow wrote recently that the bank is "short the EUR/USD at $1.3020" Callow states that "key longer term moving averages around $1.2900 should stymie the topside, but we are nevertheless inclined to tighten stops here (to $1.2950)."

In the same line, Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ analysts believe that EUR/USD looks neutral for the week ahead and they see spot moving between $1.2650 and $1.3050. Meanwhile, Citi analyst states that "$1.2260 is fair value for the euro."

According to Citi, the EUR/USD could fall to $1.2600 in the middle term and the best chance for the euro to outperform is a weak U.S. economic data or "Italy forces through stimulus measures in Europe."

The Employment day

Non farm payrolls, all is about the employment report in the United States. As BK Asset Management 's analyst Kathy Lien says, "the sustainability of today's rally in EUR/USD and USD/JPY will hinge on the outcome of this key report."

Market expectations go between 175K and 200K more payrolls for March. A decline from in the rate from 236K in February. Data seems to be pointing weak numbers but in the previous years, March was better than February in the U.S. labor market.

"If non-farm payrolls grow by 175K or less, USD/JPY could give slip more than 0.5%. The EUR/USD will rally initially in this case but whether the rally lasts will depend on how bad the number is and its implications for risk," points Lien. " Stronger payrolls on the other hand will fuel an additional rally in USD/JPY that should take the pair up to its March high of $96.70."

Moving on to Friday's docket, Italy will release its Public Deficit/GDP ratio for the fourth quarter ahead of the EMU Q1 GDP and Retail Sales. German Factory Orders will close the euro calendar.

Big day for the U.S. economy, as the NFP will be in the limelight alongside the jobless rate for the month of March. U.S. Trade Balance figures are also due, preceding the Consumer Credit Change.

- Eurozone GDP
- US Nonfarm Payrolls
- US Unemployment Rate

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