Sirius Poised to Benefit from Auto Sector Upgrade

They say the wheels of justice turn slowly. The same can be said of Wall Street these days. Reinforcing an article I wrote several weeks ago, Goldman Sachs has called a bottom to the US auto industry.

Goldman Sachs upgraded the U.S. auto sector to "neutral" from "cautious," citing the likelihood of a bottom in auto sales, and also raised its rating on Ford Motor Co ((F):$3.80,00$0.11,002.98%) to "buy" as it expects the company to benefit the most from structural changes within the sector.

The firm's analysts agree with my assessment that Ford is best positioned to take market share from GM and Chrysler. This bodes well for Sirius XM (SIRI) because the Ford contract is much more beneficial to the company than the GM contract.

Goldman also increased its projected yearly auto sales estimate by up to 1 million units, putting the projected run rate at 11,000,000 units, based on the Obama administration's auto scrappage plan (which I also wrote about several weeks ago). Estimates in January were as low as 8.5 million units.

This is of paramount importance to Sirius XM investors. The January estimates could very well have resulted in negative subscriber growth for 2009. The newest estimates, if realized or exceeded, will certainly help Sirius XM reach their stated goal of achieving positive EBITDA before capex this year.

On a personal note I don't mean to sound egotistical, yet I have come under attack recently from people who don't put themselves out there in nearly the way that I do. They don't analyze or forecast. They don't report on any due diligence. Instead, they report on the news that I research. Everyone's got to make a living I guess.

Sirius XM shares were up nearly 10% Wednesday morning on the news.

Position: Long SIRI, F

Comments

[Neal Barkett:]

Brandon, U Got Spunk!!! I Hate Spunk!!! Just kidding, good job. If Redford & Hoffman (just like in "All the President's Men") were younger they could play You & Tyler's roles in the upcoming movie STOCK SHOCK! You do take some heat but you are not afraid to throw some interesting views out there. It makes for great debate and gets everyone thinking.

Apr 23 08:39 AM

[El Guapo jefe:]

Thats a spawn kill..... well played sir.

Apr 23 11:02 AM

[tech man:]

brandon, thanks for the info. i like your daring attitude. its people like you that get the job done. i am an investor and rely on accurate information to help me make decisive decisions. thanks for the research that you and tyler do. keep up the good work. techman.

Apr 23 11:38 AM

[163888:]

Brandon, it is our own DD, that gives us reason to attack you. It is our research that shows many of the articles you put out are far fetched and just plan guess work. The last one for instanse was so wrong on so many levels. You say you did research on it but if you would have looked deeper into the agreement you would have never came to the conclusion that the Liberty deal could now be reversed.

Apr 23 02:00 PM

[hernje:]

Brandon, You have the talent to make it to the next level; however you will never do so, if you allow others to cause YOU to lose focus. Critics will always be out there, and you can bet the better you get, at your job, the more there will be. The best of the best not only have talent, they also have thick skin. I enjoy your articles. Good luck.

Apr 23 04:45 PM

[163888:]

hernje, One thing is clear. That will never happen as long as he does not take the time to do the research that should have been done many times. Then again I guess the authors of all the other articles that had SIRIXM going bankrupt because of Feb debt are respected next level authors also, right. He has a long way to go and he has already made way to many mistakes. I believe even you would agree that knowing what you are talking about and being right about it according to all the avaible facts out is one of the most important things to being even a marginal writer, right. Well Brandon missed that on three articles in the last 2 months. You know I have been reading Tyler for a long time and I dont think he has had it wrong that badly in 2 years, to say nothing about two months.


hernje, the problem I have with people like you is that you incurrage him to keep putting out that kind of garbage. You help in his short term memory. I say that because most after screwing up about that bankruptcy article after phase one of the Liberty deal was complete (off a boiler plate statement), would have made dam sure his ducks were in order before doing it ever again. But no what did we get next from him a article about SIRIXM lossing 2 MILLION net subs in 2009. He made a simple math error, that is something a average writer would try to get right. Then we have this mess about being able to totally reverse the Liberty deal. All he had to do is check the full agreement and not stop at a short version on the 8-K. Now what do I see, his mindless followers saying thats ok Brandon thats ok give us another shoty article. I say mindless because many of those same people were just bashing the WSJ, Barrons, ect., ect., ect., about them putting out those false articles. Even Bradon himself had a article here about the last bankruptcy article (that came out not to long ago) being bull crap. Basically they are cheering him on for doing the same crap they were bashing the other authers for doing. Now forgive me but if you cant see the illogic in that then you to are a idiot.

Apr 24 03:13 AM