WASDE: Lower Than Expected Stocks For Corn And Soybeans

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 |  Includes: CORN, SOYB, WEAT
by: T. Marc Schober

Domestic corn ending stocks increased by 125 million bushels in the April WASDE, which was a reflection of the March 28 Grain Stocks Report, although the increase was 50 million bushels below pre-report estimates. The same story can be said for soybeans as the USDA has ending stocks unchanged for a second straight month; pre-report estimates had an average 9.6% increase.

Corn

U.S. ending corn stocks for 2012/13 were increased to a total of 757 million bushels; analyst's pre-report estimates were 836 million. Although there was an increase of 50 million bushels of corn used for ethanol, lower than expected feed use and residual disappearance decreased domestic corn use by 100 million bushels. The USDA projected a 25 million bushel decrease in corn exports due to slow pace of shipments and expected competition from Brazil and Ukraine. The season average price range was lowered 20 cents at the midpoint to $6.65 to $7.15 per bushel.

Global coarse grain supplies in 2012/13 were estimated higher due to an increase in global production. Brazil's corn production was raised this month, due to favorable weather conditions, by 1.5 million tons and is on pace to produce a record corn crop of 74 million tons.

Soybeans

For the second straight month, U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2012/13 remain at 125 million bushels. U.S. Soybean exports were increased to 1.35 billion bushels, a 5 million bushel increase. Due to the March 28 Grain Stocks Report, residual use was reduced to 5 million bushels, a 25 million bushel reduction from last month. The projected season average price range was unchanged at $13.80 to $14.80 per bushel.

Global oilseed production in 2012/13 was increased by 2 million tons to 468.8 million tons due mainly to increases from Paraguay and Uruguay.

Wheat

U.S. wheat ending stocks was estimated at 731 million bushels, a 15 million bushel increase. Domestic seed use for the upcoming planting season has been raised 1 million bushels due to the planting expectations from the March 28 Prospective Plantings Report. The season average wheat price for 2012/13 was narrowed $0.05 at both ends to $7.70 to $7.90 per bushel.

Outlook

At roughly this time last year the weather in the Corn Belt was warm and farmers were in the field planting the 2012 crop, but this year is a different story as much of the Midwest is either covered in snow or too damp to get into the fields. The outlook for the next 10 days is more snow and rain throughout the Corn Belt. We will be keeping a close eye on weather patterns as a late planting can adversely affect the 2013 crop.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.