A Particularly Bad Time for a Pandemic 26 comments
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There are many more pandemic threats than there are pandemics, and so I hope and expect that swine flu will run its course fairly quickly and without too much damage being done. Still, it's difficult to overstate how bad the timing is here.
Not that there's ever a good time for a pandemic threat, but this particular point in the worst recession since the Great Depression is an especially bad time, for a couple of reasons. One is that people are certain to overreact, in ways that will be almost uniformly bad for the economy. Mexico City has become like a ghost town, it seems, with people staying indoors, and gathering places -- shops, restaurants, and bars -- closing their doors. It's unfortunate that the things which facilitate economic activity -- namely, the bringing of people together, are also the things that feed pandemics.
The other problem is that the appropriate government reaction is immediate overkill. Tyler Cowen quotes a study of the Spanish influenza epidemic, which reads:
Cities that instituted quarantine, school closings, bans on public gatherings and other such procedures early in the epidemic had peak death rates 30 percent to 50 percent lower than those that did not.
But these activities are in direct conflict with the goal of boosting the global economy. We want people to travel, gather, and spend. It's no wonder that markets seem a little nervous about the prospect of an outbreak. The human cost of a pandemic would be significant, but the economic costs of even the threat of pandemic could be nasty. So I really, really, really, hope this passes quickly.
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let's hope that there is no more outbreak coming this year
And no, you can't get it from eating pork.
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By Tom Randall
April 28 (Bloomberg) -- The World Health Organization, acknowledging the growing threat of swine flu, raised its global pandemic alert, saying the disease is no longer containable.
The alarm is at its highest level since the warning system was adopted in 2005. The emphasis for health officials worldwide should be treating patients and strengthening preparations for outbreaks, said Keiji Fukuda, assistant director-general for health security and environment. The Geneva-based WHO isn’t recommending travel restrictions.
Swine flu cases in the U.S. doubled to 40, and Mexico’s toll of flu-related deaths reached 149. Fears among global health officials about other outbreaks spurred an emergency meeting of the WHO. U.S. officials yesterday recommended that nonessential travel to Mexico be avoided, the European Union has told travelers to avoid outbreak areas, and Australia, Japan, Singapore and South Korea are screening air passengers.
The increased threat level “signifies that we have taken a step closer” to pandemic, Fukuda said in a conference call with reporters yesterday. “It is also possible that as the situation evolves over the next few days we could move into Stage 5.”
A pandemic is an unexpected outbreak of disease that spreads from person to person across borders. Pandemics occur when a new influenza A-type virus, to which almost no one has natural immunity, emerges and spreads internationally.
Not Inevitable
The raised level indicates health officials need to prepare for a pandemic, though it’s not inevitable, Fukuda said. This is the first time pandemic risk has risen above level 3 on the WHO’s six-step alert system since the United Nations agency adopted the current scale in 2005.
Production of influenza vaccine for seasonal outbreaks, which U.S. health officials have said is ineffective against the new flu, should continue, Fukuda said. WHO is working with partners to prepare for a swine-flu vaccine, and would help produce such a vaccine if the outbreak becomes a pandemic, he said.
“You don’t know going into an outbreak what it will look like in the end,” said Richard Besser, the acting head of the U.S. Centers for Disease and Prevention. “I wouldn’t rest on the fact that we have only seen cases in this country that are less severe. I would expect that the spectrum of disease will expand.”
No Vaccine
“We don’t think that any of the existing vaccines are effective,” Besser said.
MarvinMBA says that NNVC.OB has a product in development that works.
For those that don't know, a small company up in Washington state called Veratect was one of the first to identify that something was going on in Mexico. Anyhow, their blog and twitter account is a good source of quick updates.
However, the post below - posted about a half hour ago - caught my eye because of the words "involuntarily isolate" Anyone get an image reading that of government men in white suits knocking at your door and telling you that you are about to be placed in a top secret lab for further study? Just struck me as an odd phrasing.
twitter.com/Veratect
North Carolina: Health officials involuntarily isolate an unspecified number of suspected cases and test for swine influenza.
This will be great for GILEAD SCIENCES (GILD), any other plays to trade on?
On average, 20,000 - 55,000 Americans die annual from influenza. Did ANY of you know that? Or care? In a nation of 300 mln, flu death is not a major concern (and not because we can get a flu shot - that's no silver bullet either); in our lives, Granny & Old Neighbor Jim aren't either. We deal with personal loss, then move on to the business of living.
Pandemics are scary because they kill hardy & health young people. But why should we freak out with an extra 5-10k deaths from a cyclical & unavoidable catastrophe? Consider the 40,000 US residents who die in car accidents (mostly AVOIDABLE deaths) each year - are you going to stop driving?
Global hysteria over SARS or Avian Flu (quick - tell me how many died!) and blithe ignorance about normal flu deaths should give us pause... then look at Dow!
It's true, between the Chinese doctors' first reports (11/26/02) and the next low (3/11/03) the DOW dropped -13%, but there's ZERO indication that was at all SARS related.
Between the time WHO issued their FIRST global alert (3/12/03) and the actual decline in reported SARS deaths (6/27/03), the Dow RALLIED +19.25%.
So tell me: was the real SARS epidemic Bullish for stocks, yes or no?
Rahm Emmanual, no?
Homer II, no?
On Apr 28 01:53 AM analyste de boston wrote:
> I am willing to entertain any & all theories, but CRITICALLY.
>
>
> This will be great for GILEAD SCIENCES (seekingalpha.com/symbo...),
> any other plays to trade on?
>
> On average, 20,000 - 55,000 Americans die annual from influenza.
> Did ANY of you know that? Or care? In a nation of 300 mln, flu death
> is not a major concern (and not because we can get a flu shot - that's
> no silver bullet either); in our lives, Granny & Old Neighbor
> Jim aren't either. We deal with personal loss, then move on to the
> business of living.
>
> Pandemics are scary because they kill hardy & health young people.
> But why should we freak out with an extra 5-10k deaths from a cyclical
> & unavoidable catastrophe? Consider the 40,000 US residents who
> die in car accidents (mostly AVOIDABLE deaths) each year - are you
> going to stop driving?
>
> Global hysteria over SARS or Avian Flu (quick - tell me how many
> died!) and blithe ignorance about normal flu deaths should give us
> pause... then look at Dow!
>
> It's true, between the Chinese doctors' first reports (11/26/02)
> and the next low (3/11/03) the DOW dropped -13%, but there's ZERO
> indication that was at all SARS related.
>
> Between the time WHO issued their FIRST global alert (3/12/03) and
> the actual decline in reported SARS deaths (6/27/03), the Dow RALLIED
> +19.25%.
>
> So tell me: was the real SARS epidemic Bullish for stocks, yes or
> no?
No, its not - its PANDEMIC FLU. People have lived with seasonal influenza and cyclical pandemics longer than we've been homo sapiens. The question is "How many additional deaths will likely occur?"
In 1957, the last major global pandemic, an EXTRA 70,000 people died in the USA. In today's terms, without adjusting for AGE or healthcare distinctions, that would be +125k deaths over the 36k baseline 'avg annual deaths.'
That's right: between 20,000 - 55,000 American normally croak from the flu each and every year. Did you know that, End-of-Days?
Unlike the regular seasonal flu, a pandemic has the potential of putting millions of people across multiple countries in beds/hospitals at the same time. If you're really sick, you can't work. If you're entire office is really sick, you may lose a bit of $$.
We are not near, YET!