S&P/Case-Shiller Housing Numbers

The February S&P/Case-Shiller median home price numbers are due out tomorrow, and below we highlight the current declines from peaks for the 20 cities tracked. As shown, the Phoenix median home price is down the most from its peak at -49%, followed by Las Vegas at -46% and Miami and San Francisco at -43%. Ten cities are down more than the Composite 20-City index, while ten cities are down less. The Composite 20-City index is down nearly 30% from its peak. No cities are down less than 10% anymore, as Dallas and Charlotte have moved to -11%. New York still ranks as the 4th best city, with a decline of only 16% from its peak.

click to enlarge

Below we highlight historical charts of the year over year monthly percentage change in median home prices for the 20 cities tracked by S&P/Case-Shiller. Phoenix is also down the most year over year at -35%, while Dallas, Denver, and Cleveland are down just 5% year over year.

Comments

[Rohan C. Pease:]

Thanks for the charts, your advisory group helps me as an investor as I tend to focus on visuals for research.

However I just want to point out that fundamental research is paramount to investing, you must use both tools, I just happen to learn better through visuals.

Apr 27 06:42 PM

[nym:]

Caution: it's hard to compare cities here because the vertical scales are different.

Apr 28 01:02 AM

[jeandit75:]

What ever using fundamentals or visuals, I don't see much of a "second derivative" improvement here.

Apr 28 02:14 AM

[Dabbio:]

There is a second derivative improvement. The questions is, is it permanent? It could be a turnaround, but I believe it is just a shelf.

Apr 28 10:08 AM

[cynewulf:]

I believe, I believe.

Apr 28 11:04 AM

[mrresponsible:]

I am wondering how "peak" was determined. Denver, for example, did not ever appreciate as much as most other cities, in fact it began its decline (inflation adjusted) starting in early 2000's. Denver's peak was probably much earlier than other cities. So, Denver's decline could be equivalent to other cities if the time line was stretched out.

The fact remains that there is a glut of housing. And it is not out of love for one another that people are moving in together! In addition, housing replacements costs are going down and home ownership costs are increasing - increases of property taxes and fees do affect the affortability. All this hope could be just "dribble" but I sincerely hope it isn't.

Apr 28 01:36 PM

[Jimmy K:]

I agree with the Charlotte comments, WAKEUP. I have been watching & waiting for Charlotte pricing to drop. looked at houses with Realtor, 5 out of 6 homes for sale are vacant... empty. I expect a huge drop within 6 months...

Apr 28 04:06 PM