Market Outlook: Why I'm Pulling Back

by: Toro

I continue to hedge down my positions and am now primarily in cash, with some long exposure remaining. Over the next few days, if the market plays out the way I think it will, I will get net flat or perhaps even short. If I am wrong, then I will reverse my positions and become more aggressive. I have not sold any of my stocks bar one, and expect to add to positions on a downdraft.

This is just a trade, and I might change my mind Tuesday. I do not believe this is the beginning of a new leg down to lower lows. To hit lower lows, another cataclysmic event must occur, probably even bigger than what has already happened, an event I believe is unlikely. (There is one thing that worries me immensely, which I will address over the next few days.) I think the economy is repairing itself, and economic growth will surprise to the upside in the not too distant future.

But we have come far, fast, and the risk that the market takes a breather and retraces some of the gains is high, in my opinion.