Apple's Media Tablet Will Cause the Stock to Rocket 45 comments
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To get an idea of the kind of impact Apple’s (AAPL) Media Tablet might have on Apple stock, let’s review the iPhone precedent. 2007 was a great year to be an Apple investor as the stock rose 31% prior to the unveiling of the iPhone, then it went up another 32% before the iPhone actually went on sale, and then it surged 62% between June 9th and Christmas day as iPhone sales surpassed expectations. Can lightning strike twice for investors? It happens all the time.
The coming Media Tablet may very well have the same positive impact on Apple stock in 2009 as the iPhone did in 2007. Apple is on the brink of adding another leg to its innovation empire as they prepare to introduce us to an entirely new product category. Manufacturing reports suggest that the Media Tablet will have a 10 inch touchscreen that could be even thinner than the iPhone. It will be the ultimate newspaper/magazine replacement catering to those Internet users looking for the perfect portable reading device. Wireless connectivity will further expand the dominance of Apple’s App Store as games, books, education and news software will finally function on an ideal piece of hardware. The Media Tablet will be the first computer with the capability to utilize the App Store platform that has already generated over 1 billion downloads since it was launched in July 2008.
According to the WSJ, Steve Jobs has been working on this Media Tablet from home during his leave of absence. Don’t be surprised to see Mr. Jobs back on stage to unveil the product when he is scheduled to return to Apple at the end of June. Also don’t be surprised to see him perform a demo of iChat on the new device. Apple has held off incorporating iChat onto the iPhone for reasons unknown, perhaps the Media Tablet will take this mode of communication to a new level of popularity.
Many have been wondering what Apple and Verizon (VZ) have been discussing in their confirmed meetings over the last six months; consensus speculation anticipates that Verizon might be on the verge of offering the iPhone as soon as AT&T’s (T) exclusivity deal expires. This doesn’t seem likely. Apple has been consistent in saying that it doesn’t want to build an iPhone for the limited Verizon network and I highly doubt the company will change its mind. It makes more sense to speculate that these talks are negotiations regarding the Media Tablet. To have a wireless internet connection available through both AT&T and Verizon would allow tablet distribution to far exceed the iPhone’s. Apple's product probably will require that the same phone number be used for your cell phone as well as the tablet, the tablet service will simply be added to your existing cellular contract. Service similar to the iPhone may also be part of the negotiations, thereby allowing Apple to offer low prices that no one can compete with.
Beyond the Media Tablet, Apple stock also responds to the health of the economy. For the last 18 months the economic data points have been getting worse, which has brought down Apple along with the rest of the market. However, now that the threat of bank failure has been taken off the table and economic data points are beginning to improve, Apple is poised to reap the benefits of its stellar performance throughout the recession. Since the recession began, Apple has doubled its cash on the balance sheet to $30 billion and it has substantially increased its market share among computers and smart phones despite the Steve Jobs health scare and despite the weak global tech demand. With such problems now in the rearview mirror and President Obama pushing his agenda to reignite the spirit of American innovation, it is clear that the economic environment is fertile to invest in Apple once again.
The iPhone stock trend shows us that the new Media Tablet could take this stock to $267 by December 25, 2009. This catalyst, along with the other catalysts in Apple’s future, could propel this stock towards $300 a share. These other catalysts include:
- Steve Jobs officially returning to the company at the end of June.
- The release of a new iPhone.
- The iPhone launch in China.
- Improved consumer confidence for the 2009 holiday shopping season.
Because of these recent developments, Apple is a better investment at $125 on May 1st than it was when it dipped into the $70s in January. True, this is a second half of the year stock and this year you might see some fireworks coming from Apple. I will diversify my position in Apple but my favorite play is the January 2010 Apple $200 calls which you can pick up for 1.55. The tech revolution is just getting started and Apple is the unquestioned leader.
Disclosure: Long AAPL.
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I am wondering why somebody does
not create a band-aid fix, add-on
invention of a new, newspaper and
magazine standard, USB smart
card product (key chain format),
for e-newspaper distribution,
using [standard family keys/
issue]. This will support:
1). 1 [unique public key pair/
subscriber].
2). remote download only to
authorized customers of 1
[family key encrypted media/
issue].
3). spot encrypted Web readers.
4). blocking out of Google and
Yahoo spiders or robot,
Web crawlers.
5). e-newspaper clip-outs, stored
inside the USB smart card.
6). electronic 'paid content,' with
archival storage and sharing
only by paid subcribers.
Sincerely,
Sam Stew
samstew0990@yahoo.com
ORLANDO, Florida--When it comes to the state of Apple Computer, everyone has an opinion.
And at the Gartner Symposium and ITxpo97 here today, the CEO of competitor Dell Computer added his voice to the chorus when asked what could be done to fix the Mac maker. His solution was a drastic one.
"What would I do? I'd shut it down and give the money back to the shareholders," Michael Dell said before a crowd of several thousand IT executives.
Dell's comments follow Steve Jobs's keynote address at the Seybold trade show last week in San Francisco, where the Apple cofounder seemed to win over attendees with his explanation of why he had made certain key decisions, killing the clone market and aligning more closely with Microsoft. The Seybold crowd--as well as some Apple employees--also seemed to be buoyed by the increasing role Jobs has taken on at the company as board member and interim CEO.
But others, like Dell, appear to think that Jobs's expanded role isn't helping. There is some concern that Apple will have a hard time recruiting a top-notch CEO because of Jobs's presence.
Others fear that Apple could end up completely in Microsoft's camp by deciding to use the NT operating system on its servers. Apple is reportedly planning to come out with network computers that would require high-end servers to function.
While many industry executives have offered opinions on how to right Apple's ship, no high-level executive has made as blatant a comment as Dell's.
For the record Mr. DELL.... I am forced use your computer on a daily basis and know why your company is in the shape it in right now. Your BUDDY Steve over @ MSFT ain't helpin' you any either.
APPL will be @ $300 in the not so near future. AAPL Long.
Re:"When something becomes too predictable, traders like to set up traps."
How does a trader set a trap?
On Apr 29 09:30 AM Techtrader10 wrote:
> No matter what Apple comes out with, there is a loud cry from the
> people expecting to be rich holding Apple stock, "the stock will
> go up". I love it, as I have been long and/or short Apple stock
> over the past two years and enjoyed trading it. However I feel a
> little sad for the people that have hoped they could just buy and
> hold it. Unfortunately, Apple stock is not like a mutual fund.
> You must put a little time and effort into when to buy, when to hold,
> and especially when to sell it. Be careful going into the next quarterly
> numbers report. The stock price usually goes up about two weeks
> ahead of the report, it has become very predictable. When something
> becomes too predictable, traders like to set up traps. Good luck
> trading everyone!
True...
However,
APPL is no longer as predictable as it once was for the trader.
This company should now be traded, invested in, bought, sold, shorted etc.. on it's FUNDAMENTALS... NOT via RUMORS & SPECULATION.
As far as the dividend it will happen @ some point. When? Only Apple knows the answer to that question.... as it should be.
Re: "However I feel a little sad for the people that have hoped they could just buy and hold it. Unfortunately, Apple stock is not like a mutual fund. You must put a little time and effort into when to buy, when to hold, and especially when to sell it."
$1000 put into Apple 5 years ago is now worth more than $7700. You feel a little sad for those that buy and hold??? When did you start investing?
On Apr 29 09:30 AM Techtrader10 wrote:
> No matter what Apple comes out with, there is a loud cry from the
> people expecting to be rich holding Apple stock, "the stock will
> go up". I love it, as I have been long and/or short Apple stock
> over the past two years and enjoyed trading it. However I feel a
> little sad for the people that have hoped they could just buy and
> hold it. Unfortunately, Apple stock is not like a mutual fund.
> You must put a little time and effort into when to buy, when to hold,
> and especially when to sell it. Be careful going into the next quarterly
> numbers report. The stock price usually goes up about two weeks
> ahead of the report, it has become very predictable. When something
> becomes too predictable, traders like to set up traps. Good luck
> trading everyone!
The days of Apple's stock price appreciating 700% over 5 years are over due to the size of the market cap (unless heli ben really gets inflation going and we get to $1000 ipods). I predict that AAPL will find itself in a trading range around 200 in 2010.
bought 420 @ $40 sold 210 @ $190.00...
bought back 210 @ $93.00..now I'm going to enjoy the ride.
The iPhone launch was far from perfect as the company had to cut price extremely quickly - so you can't call it the driver of the stock.
I was a VAR in 1990-1991. Windows XP NOW is where Apple's OS 9.21 was......THEN.. Vista? need I say more.. Windows 7? UM yeah OK! take a good look under the hood people... Slick Willy is @ work once again. I'm a very tech savvy power user. MSFT just do't have it anymore people.... the 90's are OVER.
I've seen the ups and downs of AAPL.... this time is MUCH different.
I work in a mixed environment and I must say MSFT is most vulnerable @ this point in it's short history.
Why? 2 words.... App Store
On Apr 29 12:54 PM Michael Comeau wrote:
> It's a bit unfair to attribute Apple's stock performance in 2007
> purely to the iPhone - the massive unit growth in Macs was a much
> bigger factor.
>
> The iPhone launch was far from perfect as the company had to cut
> price extremely quickly - so you can't call it the driver of the
> stock.
"Apple's Manhattan cube store, a place that sells iPods, is the 5th most photographed place in NYC—just in front of the Statue of Liberty..."
gizmodo.com/5232419/35...
On Apr 29 02:05 PM Anthony B wrote:
> It's a heck of a fad then:
> "Apple's Manhattan cube store, a place that sells iPods, is the 5th
> most photographed place in NYC—just in front of the Statue of Liberty..."
>
> gizmodo.com/5232419/35...
For one, if you have not noticed folks, our economy has been anything but healthy. Apple's numbers are solid right? RIGHT!... and to defend my position and to refresh peoples short term memories Apple is debt free, has $30B in the bank, has a world class OS (Certified UNIX), has just hired a brain child from AMD, not to mention 1 billion application downloads in 9 months, has control over both software and hardware decisions.....shall I keep going? This company LEADS ok. AAPL @ $125 even with the p/e ratio is a good buy. AAPL LONG.
Facts are Facts folks... The TRUTH will set you free..... MSFT is anything but....... keep nay saying all you want..... only time will tell....I was right before my gut tells me I will be right again.
ps. those who bash AAPL from my experience have never even used one.....what does that tell you?
If so, its impact will be explosive. That's why they should call it the "DynaMac." (Plus it’s a hat-tip to Alan Kay's visionary DynaBook.)
"The iPhone stock trend shows us that the new Media Tablet could take this stock to $267 by December 25, 2009. ... Apple is a better investment at $125 on May 1st than it was when it dipped into the $70s in January."
I think AAPL has a tremendous upside over the next five years. But I think $200-225 by year-end is more realistic. That's because I think that some of the upside from the DynaMac is already priced into the stock. I.e., I think that advance-word of the DynaMac's fantastic features must have leaked out and powered AAPL's recent 50%+ price rise. Nothing else can explain it. (Incidentally, this steep price rise--in the face of conventional-wisdom bearishness on the stock--bolsters your implication that the DynaMac will be insanely great, because its specs must have impressed early-bird buyers considerably.)
iJah wrote:
"I'm a very tech savvy power user. MSFT just don't have it anymore people.... the 90's are OVER. I've seen the ups and downs of AAPL.... this time is MUCH different."
Very good--that's exactly what I think. There's a strong technical basis behind Apple than many people don't appreciate. It's not just the flash and filigree of its user interface.