Jim Sinclair: Gold, Swine Flu, Communal Emails 26 comments
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As I have mentioned before, I am on the mailing list of Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp.'s (TRE) CEO and noted gold analyst, Jim Sinclair. Now, this gentleman has been in the gold sector trenches and at war with the CoT 'Commercials' since near the beginning of time, but I still do not find the following to be helpful.
My critique is as follows:
1) People calling themselves 'Comrades in Golden Arms' are setting themselves up for disappointment and a weak handed position due to the 'at war' imagery. That is because emotion enters through this image and in war there are winners and there are losers. To me, if you have fought the gold wars long enough, you still lose even if you one day 'win' as your hyperinfaltionary ship comes in. You lose because the constant 'at war' stance has degraded you, taken chunks out of your being. In short, I do not think it is healthy. Also, gold is a tool. We do not want to worship golden idols here. We want to avoid the damage being inflicted by a corrupt and bankrupt system. Gold is not the be all and end all. It is a means to an end.
2) Gold is simply a throwback to honest money. If we are confident in that simple concept, then why get all worked up at what the 'evil' cabals, banksters and global conspirators are doing? Truth wins in the end. Have confidence.
3) Getting behind a leader, maybe especially a grizzled, experienced and charismatic leader in the gold wars promotes a herd mentality. It stunts the process of coming to understand oneself and gaining confidence in one's own decision making process.
4) All too often I find honest money being wrapped up with negative things like Bird Flu, a tenuous Pakistan, SARS, general Middle East and oil conflict and now, Swine Flu. The worst global terror to me remains the Keynesian debt paper experiment that is trying to exponentially expand even now, as it threatens to deflate. Gold pays no dividend because it is not levered against any of these scams. That is really all you need to know in my opinion. The terror, war and pandemic angle is counterproductive.
Here is the most recent email going out to the 'gold community':
Dear Comrades In Golden Arms,
Stay Focused.
The first fallout casualty of the Flu panic today is a $50 billion dollar request to the IMF by Mexico. Quantitative Easing is going to shift into high gear everywhere.
The COT are such a lucky bunch that are perfectly positioned to hammer gold from unchanged into the hard negatives since about 5am today.
If you throw away your gold protection, as some of you are right now, you might as well take off your mask on the Swiss train car with the exploding virus vials or run up to someone in Mexico City and say please sneeze on me a few times.
Keep your eye on the ball.
Respectfully yours,
Jim
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This article has 26 comments:
2) Jim Sinclair doesn't rail much against the evil cabal. Mostly he just treats it as a fact of life. Maybe you're confusing him with GATA. He'd probably agree with GATA's analysis, but his tone is different, often similar to your "truth" and "confidence" outlook. That said, the financial system does not lack for execrable things that merit some vituperation.
3) A herd mentality is dangerous, but I don't see Sinclair trying to set himself up as a leader. His site has a large following because it is educational, insightful, and free.
4) Sinclair discusses other topics because they could significantly affect the gold price.
Freya, with regard to the Barron's piece, they interviewed Sinclair, so "Mr. Sinclair did not return phone calls" is misleading. So what if he buys tranches? He's not getting a discount, and it's much better than him taking a ton of options, which most senior management teams see as some kind of entitlement. If he sells some of his shares, so what? I believe he has provided well over $10M in financing so far. You can't believe everything you read, and Barron's is no friend of gold companies. Previously, they ran a hatchet piece on RGLD by someone who was a major short! Royalty companies like RGLD and TRE have far less risk than straight mining plays, but the market doesn't always account for this, which can lead to buy-outs at healthy premiums, like when NEM bought Franco-Nevada.
His conduct with own company, Tan Range, should be an example for the industry. He puts his money where his mouth is rather than loading up with free paper to dump into every rise.
Wow, I'm on several Nigerian mailing lists.
Freya, slow down. You're way off base on your post here. All shares issued in TRE, private placements included, must be registered and approved before issuance. There are NO shares in the woodwork. NONE.
Go to sedar.com to look up the exact status of the company. You are dealing with a fine company here, with expert management. What's different is that it is a royalty company which acquires and explores good ground and then brings in joint venture partners for development. The company retains a residual royalty that will pay, forever, off the top, a smelter royalty off every ounce mined under whatever agreement is signed. It's an excellent, long-term play on gold and, as I understand, other minerals as well as mineral rich Tanzania. All it requires is patience.
Barron's should hang their head at their ignorance, if not slander. I don't know Jim Sinclair but suspect he would forgive you as being one of the victims of the disinformation he has tried so hard to defeat.
Disclosure: I own no shares, none at all, but have been waiting for an opportunity to buy a few. Thank you, Barron's and Freya, for an opportunity. And for you, Freya, a word of advice in gold. It takes an average of fifteen years to move a prospect from discovery to mining. A share in Tan Range is an option on future Tanzanian gold.
On Apr 29 05:19 PM Freya wrote:
> GrassRanger: whatever works for you.
>
> Gmiki: Do you know what Private Placements are?
>
I too have followed Mr. Sinclair's website, his admonitions, analysis, and Tanzania Royalty since its inception. I'm also a shareholder of TRE.
In my opinion his honesty and management ethics are above reproach and set a standard for the mining industry. His selflessness in attempting to educate on his website at his own expense, has assisted me in making extremely productive investment decisions over the years of this current precious metal's bull market.
Not only is he a self-made man and multi millionaire, having refused an inheritance from his father and thus created his own fortunes, but once made a statement that he has donated more money to charities than he has kept for himself.
I ask anyone who doesn't know the meaning of respect and is critical of him, what are your accomplishments and who are you to be judgemental of this man or his company?
Stewart Thomson
gracelandupdates.com
Jim Sinclair IS to gold what Ben Bernanke is to the Fed....
In conclusion, Jim Sinclair has taught me more about building, preserving wealth, technical and fundamental analysis than any other single person. He has done all this FOR FREE and PUBLICLY DISPLAYED. I have read him daily for years. He is far better than the multitude of two-bit newsletter writers out there. Gary Tanashian is just another wannabe. He comes across as a feminized New Ager to me. Just another TA guy who makes predictions based on the rear view mirror (he calls it a windsock I think). I think he's just a windbag now. I never had much respect for him because he hasn't done anything to earn it. He's like most of these self-declared gurus. You might as well flip a coin.
I agree whole heartedly with your comments on the article and especially about the author. My efforts to politely hold back resulted in falling short of calling a spade a spade. Some things simply must be spelled out to accurately describe what is an ill-informed sour-grapes "wannabe."
Thanks for saying what many of us were obviously thinking goldrealmny.
On Apr 30 02:12 AM Freya wrote:
> Even the best have failed, no one is perfect.
------------
I agree. Just look at all the folk who are still holding GM shares. My perspective of TRE is that its most recent decline was inspired by a short seller, not any fundamental change in the company's prospects. Barron's appears to have become a conduit for this type of hatchet job to give a short seller the opportunity to get out of a vulnerable position. Investment in a gold exploration play is always a speculation so you bet on integrity of management and the prospects of their land base. If TRE goes to zero, it won't be the first for me but it will average out with some that have gone up 9:1.
Although I respect Gary Tanashian and read his blog regularly, I disagree with his negative characterizations. My bet is still with Sinclair and TRE.
Jesse Livermore called the crash of 1907. In 1929 he went short and made $100 million, probably equivalent to $10 billion today. Jim Sinclair has been taught by men with the best pedigree in the history of making money, or capitalism. Do you fully understand the talent at hand? Of course not, you all continue to bash Jim without FACTS. The Barron's author who works for maybe $150K annually is a pimple on an elephant's ass in the world of finance. What the hell does he know about gold, starting a publicly held company, mining, networking with leaders of nations, Presidents of nations? In 1980 Jim was a celebrity. The entire media outlets wanted to know what he was doing, like a gentleman, he said sell (at the top) and gold will not see these highs for 15-20 years. Even his current staff did not follow his advice and lost entire fortunes. I assure you when Jim advises the community to sell. I'LL SELL AND NOT LOOK BACK FOR ANOTHER 20 or 25 years. Back again, the Barrons author knows NOTHING, that is why he hides behind a desk writing about companies. If this man had any substance he would start his own business and become a successful financier like Jim Sinclair, an accomplished man not by opinion but FACTS. I suggest the author accept a job with the Government. They are looking for cookie cutters, yes men, trend follower, yep, again pussies, no backbone or creativity need apply. Has the author started and sold a hugely profitable company like Sutton? Is he a respected figure head on Wall Street? Did he graduate from Whartons, like Jim Sinclair? Did he control the largest amount of gold trading in 1980, like Jim Sinclair? Did he advise his staff like Jim did, to sell gold between 850-875 in 1980 to the day of the peak? The answer to all the above is HELL no.
Jim Sinclair is a honorable man of integrity, LOYALTY, and will fight you till death. I remain a loyal shareholder since the early days and will remain when we're the most popular traded stock on our respective index. I suspect either Barrick or Royal Gold will purchase TRE, simply my opinion.. I know my net worth and future financial security rests in a man that will make his shareholders dreams come true.
Respectfully submitted,
Michael Pfeiffer
In all of TRE's years...
How many properties do they have that have a NI 43-101?
Likely reply "But TRE Is a royalty company, we don't actually drill any property." Fine. Which leads me to my next question...
How many joint ventures has TRE been involved with?
Has TRE ever produced an ounce of gold in all their years?
89 million shares and nothing to show for it. Think about that for a second and ask yourself why you would continue to hold shares in a company like TRE?
Thank you, Mr. Sinclair.
Arial
Loyalty and respect should not get in the way of making a profit. Would you consider Jim Sinclair to be an Insider of TRE?
I certainly do. None of the shares he receives in these Tranches are listed. I've looked wherever I could. There are Zero shares in Insider Hands.
If one of you could point out where another 248,000 shares went with the Latest Tranche, it would be most welcome.
I'll go with with my Charts, you can fight the tape.
I do not know if View Systems is still alive but I do know that the SEC raked its Chairman over the coals for Issuing more shares than authorized.(this decade)
I had no problems with Sinclair until I was slamdunked for posing a divergent opinion and asking a simple question.
And absolutely none of you have offered anything at all to contradict what I said about: Jim's first paragraph.
Actions speak louder than words, why isn't TRE moving Up? Any of you that bought shares during 2006 or 2007 is still underwater, Big time for some of you. The chart sucks. If it manages to hold the lows on the next big move to the downside, I'll look at it again.
Meanwhile, that's what I believe is in store for you, Mid $1.50s if you are lucky. Commodity stocks have been on a tear to the upside in Mar./Apr., TRE has been dropping.
Gmiki: Do you know what Private Placements are?
TRE has about 89 Million shares outstanding listed.
Personally, I do not know how many are Authorized but Private Placement shares are not registered.
That means the actual amount outstanding could be 200 million shares but the public would not be informed until they started coming out of the woods.
Theoretically, the total, both public and private should stay within the confines of the number authorized. If they believe they are running out of shares, They issue a statement that they are increasing the number of shares authorized, you think its good, maybe they will use shares to make an acquisition. Nothing happens, you forget about it. They continue with the Private Placement Program.
The process is perfectly legal. Somewhere in the 10K there should be a footnote about it.
I have been following TRE for years, buying used equipment, getting great properties, just about to actually mine, etc. But never, ever actually Mining.
I ignored it, even before Barron's confirmed my suspicions. Then I saw the Title of this article.
Paul Harvey:"And thats the rest of the story".
I gave a rather concise summary of the Barron's article from memory.
Warlike stances? the only "war" I see is in the Article above. I chose not to comment on the "Stance" taken. As a matter of Fact, the only question I had which remains unanswered is "Mexico was given a line of credit of about $48 Billion from the IMF about 10 days ago, have they requested another one?"
I did not make any kind of judgement and instead said "Don't get rid of your insurance but don't believe that gold can only go in one direction either."
The only Warlike Stances taken have been form the rest of you.
But if you want a Warlike Stance: Jim's first paragraph is an outright, total distortion of Reality.
The Mexican Flu had not Appeared when the Line of credit Was given. His statement was made to provoke.
The Conclusion was that it appeared to be a Scheme to them. J. Sinclair provides Funding Tranches to TRE, gets shares, goes and sells those shares to private investors and provides more funds to TRE. Meanwhile, TRE has yet to find a Commercially viable discovery. Mr. Sinclair did not return calls.
My comment dated, April 20th to Yellowhoard regarding same.
Meanwhile, a couple of Central Banks within the ECB sold about $1.1 Billion worth of Bullion in the week ended Apr. 24th and at the End of the Indian Gold Festival a couple of days ago Gold dealers were trying to get rid of their wares by offering discounts.
Don't get rid of your Insurance but don't believe that Gold can go only in one direction either.