If you've played the roulette wheel and watched red numbers come up over and over in a row without a break, you ask yourself before the next spin - "It can't possibly come up red again, can it?" That's been the Las Vegas housing market over the past two years.
TraderMark wrote an excellent piece on the Las Vegas market this week - "Las Vegas Homeowners Lose Their Bets as Home Prices Fall" - that spurred me to support his writing with some more market data reflecting current conditions as of May 1 in Las Vegas.
Inventory has leveled out in recent months, though much of the inventory exiting the market is likely to be foreclosed homes that become part of the "shadow inventory" sitting on banks' balance sheets and rentals (something discussed in a look at the Phoenix housing market - "Spring Cleaning in Phoenix.")
This is visible when you consider that prices continue to decline despite the slower rise in inventory throughout 2008. TraderMark referenced a median home price of $144,000, so the slightly elevated ask prices below fall right into the 95% list-to-sale ratio in Las Vegas.
There's also a pretty close correlation to the number of new homes entering the resale market to those exiting, which makes sense considering the inventory plateaus we're seeing:
Over the past 45 days or so, the price of homes entering and exiting the market are also quite close, which would indicate that sellers are responding to buyer activity and starting to "price right."
But don't despair... Even places like Sacramento are starting to show early signs of a turnaround:
So if you're a betting man (or woman), and wondering when black is going to hit on the Las Vegas wheel, there's promise that eventually it will turn.
Disclosure: No positions
