Jim the Realtor: San Diego New Homes Selling Briskly 19 comments
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As far as I’m concerned the jury is still out on the housing market but I’m not going to ignore some signs that things may be turning around.
The preponderance of foreclosures in the existing sales numbers has led a lot of analysts to suggest that bargain hunters and investors are driving the market and once the inventory clears out the sales numbers will fall off. If you look at the non-distressed component of existing sales there’s reason to believe that but it’s only a thesis and won’t be validated until the foreclosure inventory tails off. That doesn’t appear as if it’s going to happen anytime soon.
So, until yesterday morning I was in the wait and see camp. Jim the Realtor’s report (via Calculated Risk) on a new home subdivision in San Diego tells me that there may be more going on than people suspect. He paints a picture straight out of if not the boom years then certainly from a more healthy market. Take a look:
Interesting isn’t it? By the way, if you haven’t been following this guy you might want to think about doing so. He’s becoming something of a cult figure.
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Following the advice of 95% of the Realtors out there is like taking the hook, line and sinker...Do your due diligence and make your own decisions on your r.e. investment.
Forewarned is forearmed!
We are most likely close to a bottom in housing but it's not because of what realtors say, it's because housing at the present prices is getting back into the range of fair market values. Which just goes to show how overpriced it was three years ago.
t-bird, thanks, good to see there are still some honest realtors.......
(P.S. Thanks for the honesty t-bird)
On May 04 09:04 AM t-bird wrote:
> I am a Realtor and member of NAR...
>
> Following the advice of 95% of the Realtors out there is like taking
> the hook, line and sinker...Do your due diligence and make your own
> decisions on your r.e. investment.
>
> Forewarned is forearmed!
I tore apart one of the print cartriges. The "restet" button was nothing more than a plastic tab used to line up the plastic parts.
IOW, One video does not the truth make, and things in videos are not always what they seem.
San Diego was a retirement mecca for decades before the housing boom. Many recent house sales seem to be purchased by New Yorkers/Angelenos/Fran... downpricing and newly retired professionals spending their severance packages. Even if true, this is not evidence of a bottom - yet.
The problem in San Diego was that none of the boom was sustainable by local employment. There were so many realtors that there were barely five properties for each to sell. Add to that traffic, lack of parking, and generally poor infrastructure, and you simply cannot sustain high dollar properties on recently retired executives. I have to wonder what sort of homeowner dues are in this place, and if they will double (or more) if they don't sell all the units.
You want a better picture, visit downtown San Diego, and notice over a few nights how few lights are on in the condos. Then talk to people about how there are so many foreclosed places that the banks are not even releasing them on the market, lest they devalue everything. Some places have so many foreclosed properties they don't even have enough people to go around and change the locks. Even more fun is the planned communities that went bankrupt.
This video is either clueless, a paid shill, or made by a complete idiot. There is NO market recovery in San Diego real estate, and anyone who lives here more than one week (and is not involved in real estate sales) can tell you that.
On May 04 12:51 PM henarl wrote:
> Wonder how much the developer paid Jim for this hype. San Diego
> is a big city in southern CA so maybe there really are a few people
> there stupid enough to pay 800 grand for one of those burb boxes.
> Only in lala land! For that much you could buy about 1,000 houses
> in Detroit.
On May 12 09:26 PM Market Sniper wrote:
> Been in real estate all my adult life. As a salesman, a broker and
> also an appraiser on Southern California. My only advice is NEVER
> just buy real estate. ANYBODY can do that. You STEAL real estate.
> If you can't steal it, you do not want it. As an investment, it must
> stand on its own. NEVER count on appreciation, if it happens, it
> is bonus time. NEVER count on the tax benefits. Politicians change
> tax policy like we change underwear (hopefully, daily! lol). All
> real estate markets are local, albeit with national trends. Want
> to know how to judge a bottom in your local market? Fairly simple
> when it comes to single family residences. When the total costs of
> owning that residence after a "normal" down payment are roughly equal
> to the fair market rent for that residence, you are reasonably close
> to a price bottom. Combine that with affordability index and you
> should be ok. That would be for a residence you live in, as a rental,
> you will need a nice discount from that as we NEVER buy real estate
> without positive cash flow. NEVER. As Dear Old Dad Used To Say...son,
> making money is easy. When nobody wants it, you buy it. When everyone
> wants it, you sell it to them.......
The fact is housing is no different than food to our basic survival. Imagine if getting all of our other survival needs was in the hands of middlemen or brokers who facilitated huge bubbles for us to stress endlessly over in order to simply eat decent meals or our quench or thirst. Imagine if as gainly a profit could be made in such essentials as food or water as we see now made in real estate . If basics such as these were controlled by brokers and agents and appraisers who bought and flipped any lot of food or salt or clothing that they had scoured the markets for and deemed underpriced, then ramped up the sale price as high as possible and pocketed the profit, how would we then want to see this ?
You may not believe it, but land was once sold and traded very casually, much like we sell things at yard sales. One would have some extra lot or parcel and run into someone else looking for land. In little more than a casual conversation such deals were followed up by a simple county recording and a pair of signatures on a title. A parcel of land or a livable home was often traded for goods or a work contract or tools or several season's worth of firewood.
When homes cease to be seen as a source of huge investment vacation, leisure or retirement income only then will the commercial business surrounding them diminish. And the immense burden and complexity of high priced real estate that infects our society, driving many of us from seeking the simple satsisfactions we may love in life to the ruin of endless worry over material things, all go away. We created the home and property investment hassle and we are obliged as human beings to see it done away with or at least changed drastically.