Bespoke's Commodity Snapshot (5/4/09)

Below we provide the year to date change of ten major commodities. As shown, copper is up the most in 2009 at 54.3%, followed by orange juice (21.81%), oil (18.61%), and platinum (17.71%). While platinum is up 17.71%, gold is up just 0.84%. Last year, platinum traded down to a 1 to 1 ratio with gold, even though the metal is much rarer than gold. So far this year, however, platinum is diverging from gold on the upside once again. Natural gas continues to be the big loser with a decline of 37.23% year to date.

click to enlarge

Below we provide our trading range charts of the commodities highlighted above. The green shading represents between 2 standard deviations above and below the commodity's 50-day moving average. When the price moves outside of this green shading, the commodity is considered overbought or oversold. Oil is pretty close to the top of its trading range, and the last time it moved above the green shading, it pulled back pretty quickly. Natural gas is the closest to oversold territory and continues to trend downward. Gold, silver, and platinum have broken their up trends recently and are approaching the bottom of their trading ranges. Copper, corn, wheat, orange juice, and coffee are closer to the top of their range than the bottom.

Comments

[Homer II:]

Don't forget the old saying: Platinum leads Gold.

May 05 12:51 AM

[Freya:]

it looks like the angles of decline in Nat.Gas are turning to a sideways motion. Meanwhile, Silver has a chance of retesting this year's high.

In General, it looks like the only real weakness was in NG.

May 04 02:45 PM