Sirius on the Move: Purely Technical? 52 comments
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With the earnings call only 2 days away, Sirius XM (SIRI) appears to be making a strong move to the upside. Likely, the move is more technical than anything. The range between 40 cents and 60 cents is “no-man's-land” and gives the stock a window to move through with relative ease, with strong support at about 40 cents, and the first real resistance at 60 cents.
Typically these stocks have not responded well to conference calls. It seems that no matter what the news is, there have always remained enough question marks that the equity has found a way to sell off after the call. Time and time again we have seen a pre-earnings run up in what seems to be a sentiment that THIS will be the quarter where everything gels.
The next logical question is whether the Liberty (LCAPA) stake in the company will give people the confidence they are seeking as to the direction of the company. So far Liberty has made some bullish statements. This is good, but it needs to be combined with clear direction from Sirius XM in this call.
I have oft been critical of the fact that without guidance and without a clear understanding of how the merger synergies will pan out, investors simply have many questions. With the financing issues well under control, it is, in my opinion, important that the street get a good sense of the road-map to success for Sirius XM Radio.
The handful of analysts that still cover the stock are looking for a loss of 2 cents on revenue of $647 million. In my opinion, the revenue will not meet those expectations. Even with the addition of higher priced packages, the slowed car sales and structure of some OEM deals will bring the revenue line down.
I stated in our Q1 preview that the subscriber number will be negative. This is due to slightly higher churn combined with fewer gross additions. Watch for the company to concentrate on the adjusted EBITDA and whether they are on pace for $300 million in that metric for the full year.
In my opinion, for the stock to maintain and keep any gains, there needs to be a clear path on guidance and what investors can anticipate from Liberty. The continued troubles in the OEM channel will continue to make offering guidance difficult, but it is something that is needed. Investors, the street, and analysts need to be able to build models and understand how all of the various metrics tie out. Unless there is a core understanding of the metrics, confidence can not grow.
Seeing the stock appreciate on technicals is one thing. Seeing it improve on performance and metrics is another. At this point, investors want more than technicals to drive and influence the price per share.
Position - Long Sirius XM, No Position Liberty
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On May 05 05:46 PM wholesalecd wrote:
> Satrad is a service, not a product. Those who go out and spend $1000
> for an unlocked blackberry are the same one's that will complain
> about a 15/month service. It's the same thing as a lady driving around
> in a Bentley and at the same time complaining about the costs of
> a latte.
>
> jay boy billy
>
> On May 05 05:33 PM connorport wrote:
On May 05 05:46 PM wholesalecd wrote:
> Satrad is a service, not a product. Those who go out and spend $1000
> for an unlocked blackberry are the same one's that will complain
> about a 15/month service. It's the same thing as a lady driving around
> in a Bentley and at the same time complaining about the costs of
> a latte.
>
> jay boy billy
>
> On May 05 05:33 PM connorport wrote:
On May 05 06:25 PM Neal Barkett wrote:
> I think Tyler is being cautious but more realistic than anything
> else. I'm hoping most of all for guidance & clarity. I'm probably
> a quarter early, but I'm hoping to hear some solid announcements
> on a few subjects such as a plan for the millions of idle radios
> (free commercial based format), the used car market & last but
> not least the announcement of the new application they have been
> promising before the end of this quarter. I think the numbers could
> be blah (maybe not) but just as important are they going to be on
> the cutting edge of innovation with this great product. If the numbers
> show a little "pop" and some innovative guidance then watch out!
> This stock will be the Sirius Buzz on Wall Street. I'm throwing out
> a rough guess that if the stars align (including economic recovery)
> like I've stated, this stock could rise at a clip that would be on
> the same par as fast as it fell, with the exception of calculating
> in the percentage for the dilution of shares.
If Mel would have purchased @ .05 on the BK talks it would have signaled what could have been misleading trading. Kind of like Jeff Immelt in GE. He reported GE's Dividends would be intact while he dumped his shares and then finally announced they would cut them sending the stock down to 5.73. The insiders then quickly moved back into position upping their stakes even further and now they find themselves in a lawsuit from the shareholders that bought in around the time of the first news.
On May 05 05:58 PM dbcs wrote:
> I'm in with 40,000 at just under a dime, So I'm happy to sit. My
> question is.....why were there not ANY insider trades at $.05? I'm
> not a sophisticated investor at all, and there may be great reasons
> for this. But, It seems to me that they would've bought if it was
> legal.
If Mel would have purchased @ .05 on the BK talks it would have signaled what could have been misleading trading. Kind of like Jeff Immelt in GE. He reported GE's Dividends would be intact while he dumped his shares and then finally announced they would cut them sending the stock down to 5.73. The insiders then quickly moved back into position upping their stakes even further and now they find themselves in a lawsuit from the shareholders that bought in around the time of the first news.
On May 05 05:58 PM dbcs wrote:
> I'm in with 40,000 at just under a dime, So I'm happy to sit. My
> question is.....why were there not ANY insider trades at $.05? I'm
> not a sophisticated investor at all, and there may be great reasons
> for this. But, It seems to me that they would've bought if it was
> legal.
jay boy billy
On May 05 05:58 PM dbcs wrote:
> I'm in with 40,000 at just under a dime, So I'm happy to sit. My
> question is.....why were there not ANY insider trades at $.05? I'm
> not a sophisticated investor at all, and there may be great reasons
> for this. But, It seems to me that they would've bought if it was
> legal.
On May 05 07:02 PM wholesalecd wrote:
> Duh, Don't you think that would raise "RED FLAGS."
>
> jay boy billy
>
> On May 05 05:58 PM dbcs wrote:
All the negative signals are robust and offer a more analytical logical outcome for Thursdays events.
jay boy billy
I suggest you do the same.
jay boy billy
On May 05 07:08 PM connorport wrote:
> Heavy trading up after hours should put us above .50 to open. Should
> close up 7-10 cents tomorrow. We shall see.
On May 05 05:49 PM boston 1 wrote:
> FM in the 50's more like the 70's the mustang my dad bought had all
> the modern upgrades and FM was not avalaible in 67. I bought an FM
> converter in 77 and here we are 30 years later. I do agree sat radio
> will do to FM, what FM did to AM. However it will take time and patience,
> but the rewards will be worth it. JMOP.
On May 05 07:10 PM wholesalecd wrote:
> Yeah you're right..The masses are unloading and taking profit
>
>
> I suggest you do the same.
>
> jay boy billy
jay boy billy says sell now and buy back at .30 or lower.
On May 05 07:41 PM Pull the Plug on the SEC wrote:
> I believe many will be surprised with the numbers reported on the
> new subscribers in the 1st quarter. Don't be surprised to see a jump
> in the number from the 4th quarter and MLB coming to their senses
> and realizing that the future of baseball needs the interest of the
> young and having baseball on radio will increase that interest. SAT
> radio within the year will be available everywhere and no other sporting
> event lends itself to the radio like Baseball. MLB must start thinking
> outside the box or they will have dwindling interest down the road
> which will lead to more empty seats in the ball parks. Be ready for
> the numbers that no one anticipates. It should be a wild ride at
> 08:00 am on Thursday.
jay boy billy
On May 05 10:12 PM wholesalecd wrote:
> Don't be surprised to see a substantial drop down to .40 tomorrow
> the day before the results. The market will react early as the market
> will have a better understanding of the negative numbers coming out
> on thursday.
>
> jay boy billy
(Logo: www.newscom.com/cgi-bi... )
SIRIUS XM will hold a conference call at 8:00 am ET on Thursday, May 7, 2009 to discuss these results. Investors and the press can listen to the conference call via the company's website, sirius.com and on its satellite radio service by tuning to SIRIUS channel 126 or XM channel 90.
Funny how some people that try to tell all how smart they are cannot even read a press release.