Bookies Favor Apple for a Twitter Buyout

Believe who you want. Twitter may or may not be possibly in late stage discussions with Apple (AAPL) about an acquisition (we’re going with no, though some have said otherwise). Now how about putting some money on it?

Last month we covered a Panama-based company called BetOnline that’s doing exactly that, allowing users to bet on which company (if any) will be acquiring Twitter in 2009. Things are apparently going well for the company, because it has just opened up another round of betting, updated with a new set of intial odds. And the money is currently on Apple, which is a 2-1 favorite for gobbling up the micromessaging startup sometime this year.

The figures are based on the closing volumes of bets from the first round ‘twitter acquisition’ market, along with input from BetOnline researchers who apparently are putting a lot of faith into the Apple rumors (or they know something we don’t).

Google (GOOG), which was at even money for the last round, has fallen to 5-to-2 odds in the new round. Microsoft has jumped from 10-to-1 odds to 5-to-1. And apparently the bookies believe that someone is going to buy Twitter soon, because the odds for ‘no acquisition’ have gone from 2.5-to-1 to 4-to-1.

Here’s the full list of intitial odds. Note that these will change over time, so now might be your chance to jump on this if you have any inside info.

Apple +200 – (2-to-1)
Google +250 – (5-to-2)
Microsoft (MSFT) +500 - ( 5-to-1)
Time-Warner (TWX) +800 – (8-to-1)
Yahoo (YHOO) +1500 - (15-to-1)
Field +600 - (6-to-1)
No Sale +400 (4-to-1)

Betting on startup acquisitions is cool enough, but the BetOnline team is doing something even more awesome. They’re currently climbing Mount Everest, where they’re going to place the first online bet to be taken from the highest point on Earth. And they’re going to be giving away $20,000 to the charity that receives the most ‘@’ reply votes on their Twitter account before they make the top. They’re about half way there, with plans to make it to the summit in the second half of this month. Wow. And may The Force be with you guys…

Original post

Comments

[PalinTologist:]

i am a nobody from nowheresville but i do believe IF (see how big that 'if' is in a relative sense?) twitter founders are inclined to sell to aapl then it will happen. i don't think aapl would be willing to be held over a barrel or engage in a bidding war with goog or msft, cuz that's not how they roll, but at a price that works for aapl, i think it will happen and i think it totally makes sense/fits.

May 06 11:13 AM

[LA Tech:]

Apple isn't stupid enough to purchase a passing fad like Twitter!

May 06 12:04 PM

[jack dee:]

"cuz that's not how they roll," , are you off your rocker, aapl would bid just like any other company. They would pay right up to the very last penny they felt the company was worth to them. Just as msft goog gm or any company.

AAPL is a for PROFIT company ( see how big the "PROFIT" is)

May 06 12:51 PM

[Nonsense:]

Ebay will buy Twitter, just after they sell of their last catastrophe.

May 06 05:27 PM

[PalinTologist:]

I don't this we disagree on this. Where did i imply that aapl wasn't for profit or that they wouldn't pay the price that works for them?

What i meant by my post was:

1. I think twitter is a good fit for aapl
2. Because I have respect for aapl mgmnt, I think they have a price in mind they are willing to pay and are willing to walk away from a deal precisely because they ARE a for profit company and won't do a deal that doesn't pencil out.
3. I think aapl mgmnt's appeal to twitter would be along the lines of how great (read PROFITABLE for the twitter owners) they would be together and if they convince twitter that, with twitter, 'twapple' will rule the world and in the long going with aapl will make them trillionaires then I think twiiter would be inclined (or give aapl the upper hand in a competitive bidding situation) to sell to aapl.
For this reason, I don't think they need to be "high bid", if it came down to a bidding war.

Who would/could beat aapl in a bidding war? 1. msft, but c'mon, twitter aint going to bed with 'the man' 2. goog but goog is becoming 'the man' and their could also be antitrust questions raised, among other issues.

Since you stated the obvious ("they would pay what they felt the company was worth to them") Let me sum up what I was trying to say in my initial post in an equally obvious statement:

Aapl will establish what twitter is worth to it and will not pay a penny more than that.

See? We agree! Izzzz alllllll goooood!

Hope this clears things up or if not, makes you as angry as my first
(what I thought was benign) post seemed to make you.


On May 06 12:51 PM jack dee wrote:

> "cuz that's not how they roll," , are you off your rocker, aapl
> would bid just like any other company. They would pay right up to
> the very last penny they felt the company was worth to them. Just
> as msft goog gm or any company.
>
> AAPL is a for PROFIT company ( see how big the "PROFIT" is)

May 06 06:14 PM