Earnings Preview: Sirius XM Radio

Sirius XM Radio (SIRI) is expected to report Q1 earnings before the market open on Thursday, May 7 with a conference call scheduled for 8:00 am ET.

Guidance

Analysts are looking for a loss of (2c) on revenue of $647.41M. The consensus range is (2c)-(1c) for EPS, and revenue of $645.61M-$649.2M, according to First Call.

Some analysts believe Sirius may not make revenue expectations as slumping car sales and some OEM deals bring revenue down despite higher priced packages. In an attempt to broaden its appeal, the Wall Street Journal reported, Sirius is planning an application for Apple's (AAPL) iPhone, which should be launched soon, and is also moving into online delivery of its service.

On the call: Analysts and investors will listen for comments regarding new projects as well as information on the recently announced merger deal between Liberty Entertainment (LMDIA) and DirecTV (DTV) that would spin off the merged company. In particular, they will listen for comments if Sirius anticipates its own merger with Liberty. Sirius has agreements with Liberty Media and its affiliate, Liberty Radio LLC, pursuant to which Liberty has invested an aggregate of $350M in the form of loans to Sirius, and are committed to invest an additional $180M in loans. In its recently filed 10K, Sirius said it believes its cash and available borrowings are “sufficient to satisfy” financial obligations through January 2010. This is changed from our earlier entry which said, "In February, Liberty Media (LINTA) agreed to lend $530M to the broadcaster of which it received $280M upfront, according to the Wall Street Journal. If Sirius wants the rest it will have to persuade holders of $350M in bank debt to extend it." Holders of bank debt have agreed to extend it.

Comments

[BigVinnie:]

I don't know what every one is arguing about. This stock will be above a $1.10 next year. We've bottomed out of this recession, and the credit markets are going to start readjusting. Short sellers need to understand that the predictability of this company failing is going to become slimmer and slimmer, each month. Long term investments will hold longer.

May 06 07:18 PM

[BigVinnie:]

Anyone that is knowledgeable enough knows that this stock will spike high in early morning trading, and then probably drop and hold at 50, to 51 cents after 2:00 O'clock. The short sellers are screwed tomorrow.


On May 06 07:16 PM jmsithy wrote:


> Overall Average: 88% - Buy
>
> Price Support Pivot Point Resistance
>
> 0.53 0.48 0.52 0.56
>
> If this tells you anything It will probably go to .56 then drop back
> to .50 / .51
>
> yesterday
>
> they mentioned that the threshhold was at .51 which it was

May 06 07:22 PM

[The finisher:]

I sure as hell hope that the stock will go up but the statements about turning on dead radios and and playing music with commercials to bring in new revenue not long ago to try to get people excited gives me fear about a bad earnings call as which i made with research in motion in november. -.07 to -.02 in one quarter is no joke, actually more like a longshot at the derby. People don't take advice from bloggers they are far from financial experts and will leave you with nothing more than I told you so or sorry and a bad burn. You should definetly at least come ot even if you have a profit and play with the rest until after the announcement as many financial experts would tell ya! good luck and dont decide your future by what happens tommorow because you will most likely be greatly dissapointed even if news is positive. Work hard and save!!!

May 06 07:33 PM

[wholesalecd:]

I would have to disagree with slight volitility tommorrow with this stock. There will be substantially high volume so I see volitility high for tommorrow.

jay boy billy


On May 06 07:22 PM BigVinnie wrote:

> Anyone that is knowledgeable enough knows that this stock will spike
> high in early morning trading, and then probably drop and hold at
> 50, to 51 cents after 2:00 O'clock. The short sellers are screwed
> tomorrow.
>

May 06 08:02 PM

[boston 1:]

I hear all the chatter and I do not understand why everyone is wondering wether the stock goes up or down. If you all bought in the single digits or pennies you should be playing with the house money and should be able to weather the ups and downs of this stock. I am a believer in this stock and have made plenty of money to not have any of my original money in it. So for me the belief in this stock has given me the faith to buy when it hit rock bottom and now am not worried about tomorrow. I also have been able to take some profits and have about 14,000 to invest on other stocks thanks to SIRIUSXM. So to the bashers eat my shorts.

May 06 08:14 PM

[jerrygs430:]

I think stuck will open at $.85, after 2pm will be at 1.55

May 06 08:33 PM

[kssmcs:]

Jerrygs430,

Only way that happens is if they report a Profit! Don't count on that yet.

IMHO, there are a couple of things that will make this stock move back to where it belongs market cap wise. 1st and foremost is if there is a hint that profitablility is in the cards, which by the way has never even been hinted at. And, there should be a pop when SIRI is re-introduced into the S & P 500.

I also agree with Relmor (from a couple of weeks ago), that the company wants some sort of R/S (too many shares), but again, that probably won't happen until profitability is right around the corner, or they are forced to by NASDAQ because of the under $1 rule, which there is still time on. No real worries.

Wholesale, BChargers - come on, please stop. Thank goodness Relmor is still here to put you in your place. The rest of the good old posters went elsewhere for good insightful conversations.

If your new to this board, and need reassurance about your investment / trade, I'd recommend going to where they are.... satwaves and siriusbuzz. Please correct me if I'm wrong about those sites. Good luck to all.

May 06 09:10 PM

[matty3000:]

I've finally figured it out. Wholesalecd, cd stands for crossdresser. He is the disgruntled founder of Sirius.

May 06 09:16 PM

[User 292014:]

The good news is that I have 500,000 shares that I averaged to .203. over the last 7 months since I had sold off all my shares and dove back in. Although I would be very happy if the stock hit $1 tomorrow, I believe it is highly unlikely. If it did, it would drop like a rock as everyone, including myself scrambles to unload and thank the gift horse. Sirius is a great stock to hold on to. Even at the current .52, it will fluctuate and keep falling a bit and then rising more just like the dow. Being long, I would rather see a steady climb with a solid base than a greed fueled spike and crash. Patience will pay off immensely. Get caught up in the hype tomorrow and you may get burned.

May 06 09:25 PM

[wholesalecd:]

And then you WOKE UP. I just heard some encouraging news that may sway the negativity tommorrow. We'll see but maybe the stock will move up slightly but I would definetely sell if that's the case. If that concurs Friday will definetely be a down day.

jay boy billy


On May 06 08:33 PM jerrygs430 wrote:

> I think stuck will open at $.85, after 2pm will be at 1.55

May 06 09:30 PM

[BigVinnie:]

I'm a strong believer in Satellite radio, I however will not start to lurk around at satwaves, or siriusbuzz.
Simply because the opinions are extremely one sided as far as the approach stance of the company goes. I have access to the SEC filings like any other share holder does, I can formulate what will happen from there. I don't want some opinions to put me in a position to make a misguided decision. If I listen to other peoples opinion other than my own I simply wouldn't be making my own opinion.


On May 06 09:10 PM kssmcs wrote:
> / trade, I'd recommend going to where they are.... satwaves and siriusbuzz.
> Please correct me if I'm wrong about those sites. Good luck to all.

May 06 09:31 PM

[kssmcs:]

Valid. Point taken.

May 06 09:40 PM

[wholesalecd:]

EXACTLY! Gotta have an open mind when doing due diligence.

jay boy billy


On May 06 09:31 PM BigVinnie wrote:

> I'm a strong believer in Satellite radio, I however will not start
> to lurk around at satwaves, or siriusbuzz.
> Simply because the opinions are extremely one sided as far as the
> approach stance of the company goes. I have access to the SEC filings
> like any other share holder does, I can formulate what will happen
> from there. I don't want some opinions to put me in a position to
> make a misguided decision. If I listen to other peoples opinion other
> than my own I simply wouldn't be making my own opinion.

May 06 09:45 PM

[eli09:]

so wholesalecd is CTIC still a good buy?

May 06 09:49 PM

[CoolHead:]

I second the comment by Kssmcs. Thank goodness Relmor is still here to put you in your place. The rest of the good old posters went elsewhere for good insightful conversations.

I wish the rest of the crew would come back.


On May 06 09:10 PM kssmcs wrote:

> Jerrygs430,
>
> Only way that happens is if they report a Profit! Don't count on
> that yet.
>
> IMHO, there are a couple of things that will make this stock move
> back to where it belongs market cap wise. 1st and foremost is if
> there is a hint that profitablility is in the cards, which by the
> way has never even been hinted at. And, there should be a pop when
> SIRI is re-introduced into the S & P 500.
>
> I also agree with Relmor (from a couple of weeks ago), that the company
> wants some sort of R/S (too many shares), but again, that probably
> won't happen until profitability is right around the corner, or they
> are forced to by NASDAQ because of the under $1 rule, which there
> is still time on. No real worries.
>
> Wholesale, BChargers - come on, please stop. Thank goodness Relmor
> is still here to put you in your place. The rest of the good old
> posters went elsewhere for good insightful conversations.
>
> If your new to this board, and need reassurance about your investment
> / trade, I'd recommend going to where they are.... satwaves and siriusbuzz.
> Please correct me if I'm wrong about those sites. Good luck to all.

May 06 10:27 PM

[wholesalecd:]

Let me give you a little scoop regarding CTIC. I have to admit their numbers alone aren't good. The incentive in buying this is their drug pipeline coming to form over the next 12 months. Bad numbers mean nothing for a drug company if their pipeline is fulfilled. The bad numbers can almost immediately turn positive post drug approval.

Furthermore, this company is Primed for an offer from a larger company from its promising pipeline.

I'm a buyer at this level.

jay boy billy


On May 06 09:49 PM eli09 wrote:

> so wholesalecd is CTIC still a good buy?

May 06 10:53 PM

[357519:]

Big Vinnie,
I agree with you for the most part, however, I could not lie and say I haven't frequented those sites. Because I have. I got there by following a core group of knowledgable investors/traders that vacated this place when they shut the lights out a few months ago. I owe a tremmendous amount to these guys because they have helped me look at things from different angles and have broadened my knowledge base. I miss the well rounded dynamics and passion that once existed on this site... It truley is not the same on these other sites. In my opinion; they are overrun with high schoolish behavior mixed with far too much senseless chatter, and the truly knowledgable that I followed over to there post less and less. Really is a shame. Better blog skin..sure, but better content...no way! It appears that now, like you, I will be flying solo. It is a turbulent path ahead, but I'm not afraid. Good luck to you.

On May 06 09:45 PM wholesalecd wrote:

> EXACTLY! Gotta have an open mind when doing due diligence.
>
> jay boy billy

May 06 11:12 PM

[Same as Poker:]

what do you guys make of the SEC filing today by the Senior VP / Controller? investor.sirius.com/se...

Could this be a positive sign for tomorrow's report?

May 06 11:31 PM

[relmar2003:]

only post by wholesalecd you will ever need to read. Heres an old post of his from april of 08..
"Just forget you have Sirius stock and then check it in a year......You will see you money invested probably triple......Don't watch this stock every day or it will drive you "mad." "
Sounds like a pumper on the way down, and a basher on the way up.
Man you shouldnt be lazy and not change your screen name when your switching sides.

May 07 02:00 AM

[Same as Poker:]

bye bye short sellers -

were getting minted today

May 07 07:39 AM