Harvard Winters
Long/short equity, growth at reasonable price, value

When Will People's United Financial's Stock Rise?

People's United Financial, Inc. (NASDAQ:PBCT) is a $4.2 billion market cap thrift headquartered in Bridgeport, CT. As I discussed in an earlier report, PBCT had converted from a mutual thrift to a publicly-traded mutual holding company ("MHC") in July 1988, and then into a fully-public thrift in April 2007. That conversion increased PBCT's book value per share ("BV-PS") materially, from $4.55 (all figures are from SNL Financial LC) in Q1 2007 to $14.97 in Q2 2007, and its tangible book value per share ("TBV-PS") from $4.20 to $14.62. Investors had anticipated this conversion, and as a result PBCT's share price increased rapidly beginning in mid-2006. PBCT's all-time high closing price of $21.80 occurred on February 21, 2007....

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