Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL) is expected to report fiscal first quarter earnings on Tuesday, April 23rd. The whisper number is $0.06, in-line with the analysts' estimate. DAL has a 71% positive surprise history (having topped the whisper in 5 of the 7 earnings reports for which we have data).
- Beat whisper: 5 qtrs
- Met whisper: 0 qtrs
- Missed whisper: 2 qtrs
Our primary focus is on post earnings price movement. Knowing how likely a stock's price will move following an earnings report can help you determine the best action to take (long or short). In other words, we look at what happens when the company beats or misses the whisper number expectation.
The table below indicates the average post earnings price movement within a one and 30 trading day timeframe:
The strongest price movement of -4.7% comes within 30 trading days when the company reports earnings that beat the whisper number, and -6.3% within 30 trading days when the company reports earnings that miss the whisper number. While the strongest price moves are negative, the overall price movement is inconsistent through 30 trading days when the company reports earnings that top the whisper number. When the company beats the whisper number, there is a limited negative price move in one trading day, positive price movement from five to 20 trading days, and negative price movement within 30 trading days.
The table below indicates the most recent earnings reports and short-term price reaction:
In the comparable quarter last year, the company reported earnings one cent ahead of the whisper number. Following that report, the stock realized a 5.6% gain in five trading days. Last quarter, the company reported earnings in-line with the whisper number. Following that report, the stock realized a 3.9% gain in five trading days. Overall historical data indicates the company to be (on average) a negative price reactor through 30 trading days when the company reports earnings, with exception between five and 20 trading days when the company tops the whisper number.
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Since 1998, WhisperNumber.com has been tracking and publishing "crowd sourced estimates" for earnings. We call these earnings expectations whisper numbers. Our whisper numbers are gained from individual investors and traders just like you that have registered with our site. While the whisper number itself is an important part of our analysis, a company's "price reaction" to beating or missing the whisper number expectation is the key. On average, companies that exceed the whisper are "rewarded," while companies that miss are "punished" following an earnings report.