Book Review: Great Depression Ahead 94 comments
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Earlier this year the book The Great Depression Ahead by Harry S. Dent was published. Dent is one economist who has been willing to stick his neck out (and his reputation) and has been very specific on what he sees in our current economic situation and what he thinks will happen. He offers free e-mail updates for purchasers of the book, and I just received that update Thursday. This review of his views is offered as just that; give them what credence you will. I do respect Dent's opinions and feel they they should be considered. It is unfortunate that some will dismiss his views as extreme because he does think we are headed for a depression, and that is an idea that many just cannot accept. Time will tell if it is true.
In his Update #2, Dent says we are in the bear market rally which he predicts in the book. He thinks there may be a setback to the rally in late May, and then the rally pushes on to perhaps late July or August, reaching a high of about Dow 10,100. Dent says he would be entirely out of stocks by late July or August at the latest.
Dent says some of the causes for the decline in stocks in the fall will be real estate problems, such as rising yields on Treasuries, which will push mortgage rates higher, hurting any rebound in real estate sales. Other problems waiting to blossom, Dent says, are the credit card crisis and rising unemployment. Because of these issues, Dent thinks the stimulus plan works only to a point, but it does not lead to a return to robust economic activity.
All of this is happening, Dent points out, in a time of declining spending by the Boomer generation who will save more in coming months and years as retirement nears, and because their wealth has been negatively impacted by the current economic downturn.
Dent says late 2009 to late 2010 is the most dangerous time to hold equities. He predicts a collapse in stocks during that time period and the onset of a protracted depression in which government spending cannot reverse.
Dent's voice is one among many, but I think his dire view is one that should be considered in the endless mix of opinions/advice that bombards investors. I would suggest the book is a worthy read. The reader can then make his/her own conclusions.
Disclosure: No positions
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This article has 94 comments:
It's called being an opportunist.
On May 08 08:20 AM Cetin Hakimoglu wrote:
> Sorry, but I disagree with your article regarding the demographic
> analysis. There is a huge influx of young consumers in the United
> States from foreign countries who are contributing to the economy
> and compensating for spent boomers. There will be no appreciable
> showdown in consumption in the United States that can be attributed
> to demographics.
I will say that everytime I have seen log growth is stocks it has ended badly
Changes in spending will dictate the economic path for the US.
Millions of boomers are retiring and will be cutting back on spending due the decrease in their 401k accounts, and higher health care costs due aging. They are and will be downsizing their homes as children move out. Adding to the problem of growth is the fact Boomer children are marrying later and therefore spending less than their parents did at the same age. These demographic changes will cause slower to flat growth for the US. One will have to look to emerging economies for growth.
Regarding aging boomers - the boomer group is 18 years long (1946 through1963). The very first of the boomers just reached 62 in 2008. Many to most of the boomers are just now hitting or are in their highest income years of their lives, which normally occurs in people's 50's.
The downsizing and reduced spending referred to by others above will gradually occur, but in reality, it will be down the road a minimum of 5, perhaps 10 years before it will start to have any significant impact on the economy. Prior to that time, the continued growth in population (which grows by about 2 million people per year) will more than offset any cut backs by the boomers. And offset against that is that many boomers are still in the process of putting kids through college, paying for weddings, or paying off college bills of their kids. When that is completed, it will free up significant amounts of money for many of the younger boomer families.
The population growth is also why the housing crisis well self correct within the next 12 months - we add almost a million new households per year in this country, plus we take out close to a half million existing houisng units each year. Translation - as long as we are having housing starts at an annual rate of under 600,000, we are absorbing close to 100,000 units of excess housing inventory each and every month.
The wealth of the dollar is in its capital society. Because producing what you can sell is to be private both in your property and enterprise. A capitalist society will appreciate the dollar but depreciating the dollar is to produce nothing for the money. Because money printed up is nothing else but paper money until earned. All the government can do is print up and not earn the money. Anything else is a lie.
The difference is that the English government didnt pile on a bunch of debt to enslave the next several generations to the bankers like the US government has.
Of course considering that there were 76,968,012 baby boomers in 1990 who are now mostly medium to high income it would seem to take a lot of low income people from foreign countries to make up for that. However, ignore the income level and it would still take 76 million of them. I think thats a few more that have been traditionally counted.
So again we have here an opinion by Cetin formed solely to support a political goal.
On May 08 08:20 AM Cetin Hakimoglu wrote:
> Sorry, but I disagree with your article regarding the demographic
> analysis. There is a huge influx of young consumers in the United
> States from foreign countries who are contributing to the economy
> and compensating for spent boomers. There will be no appreciable
> showdown in consumption in the United States that can be attributed
> to demographics.
all the planets in the solar system will be alinged on that day.
no one seems to know if it will happen on the stroke of midnight or not
what shall we do? nothing !
what will be will be the future is not for us to see as the song goes.
As every opinion is out there in print, sooner or later a few of them will be right and timely.
They will become saints.
The rest will keep trying.
Meanwhile we will make our choices, and when we get it right we will be geniuses.
When we are wrong we will wail and gnash teeth.
American consumers, politicians and "experts" have totally discounted the FACT that our economy was 100% surviving on free, easy credit and that Congress took that away from us.
Right when the effects of offshoring over 5 million FAMILY SUPPORTING jobs was beginning to be felt.
For some of us, namely non-rich, non-executive @ huge corporations and non-government worker--we will be in a never ending depression as our small businesses are shut down by banks, taxes & regulations--thus guaranteeing that 50% of the population will be chronically unemployed and sucking the government bottle.
The other 50% (or less) get to pay for it. Good luck to us all.
The commentary centrally discusses whether non- public consumption (individuals and companies) will decrease or not.
It seems reasonable to assume that lower-income wage (with fewer people working with lower wages) and a heavy loss to the amount of personal assets will result in lower private consumption and consequently lower production and business investment. This means the same as saying lower non-public consumption.
Therefore the degree of recession or depression depends on the amount of public spending and the efficiency of such spending to stimulate consumption.
Since it is impossible to predict the actions of the Government and its effectiveness (other than the intention to inject big money into the economy) is impossible to be right on the intensity and duration of the current recession.
My personal feeling is that the recession will be deep and long because the injection of money is targeted mostly to Wall Street.
Let's hope it does not come down to the towns and cities needing to show up with a kevlar coated SWAT Team of unionized police each time they try to steal a home from a homeowner. T
bullish in 1999 " The Roaring 2000s Investor: Strategies for the Life You Want"
bullish in 2006 "The Next Great Bubble Boom: How to Profit from the Greatest Boom in History: 2006-2010"
bearish in 2009 "The Great Depression Ahead: How to Prosper in the Crash Following the Greatest Boom in History"
His books are selling well,because he is always writing,what people want to read...
On May 08 10:08 AM Econ 101 wrote:
> Everyone compares this economic downturn to the 1930s. The proper
> paralell is the 1870s when the railroad boom and bust caused cash
> shortages accross the country. It was also the point when the United
> States overtook England as the dominant country in the world. England
> didnt die, it just faded in power. That is what is happening to
> the US today while China is moving up.
>
> The difference is that the English government didnt pile on a bunch
> of debt to enslave the next several generations to the bankers like
> the US government has.
The Mayans were not the only advanced mathematical culture to map human cyclical behaviors. It appears that 2012-2021 would be turbulent if you combine further volcanism effects of earth shift and settle on axis and human cyclical behavior.
Each era shows improvement to mankind's quality of life then the previous one and each era grows shorter as technology accelerates. Live in faith, not in fear. That said, no harm in hoping for the best and preparing for the worst. Let's put it this way, I am not building a bunker anytime soon but am looking at some vacation property that is out of the way and could dual as safe place if civil unrest gets out of control. Lakeside properties in my neck of the woods are beginning to look very reasonable again.
On May 08 11:40 AM frankinstein wrote:
> this sounds to me like another doomsday prediction.there have been
> a lot of movies on cable TV reguarding December 21 2012
> all the planets in the solar system will be alinged on that day.
>
> no one seems to know if it will happen on the stroke of midnight
> or not
> what shall we do? nothing !
> what will be will be the future is not for us to see as the song
> goes.
On May 08 11:58 AM TeresaE wrote:
> Michigan is IN a depression and it is spreading across our country.
>
>
> American consumers, politicians and "experts" have totally discounted
> the FACT that our economy was 100% surviving on free, easy credit
> and that Congress took that away from us.
>
> Right when the effects of offshoring over 5 million FAMILY SUPPORTING
> jobs was beginning to be felt.
>
> For some of us, namely non-rich, non-executive @ huge corporations
> and non-government worker--we will be in a never ending depression
> as our small businesses are shut down by banks, taxes & regulations--thus
> guaranteeing that 50% of the population will be chronically unemployed
> and sucking the government bottle.
>
> The other 50% (or less) get to pay for it. Good luck to us all.
On May 08 08:59 AM dcb wrote:
> please provide supporting data
On May 08 08:20 AM Cetin Hakimoglu wrote:
> Sorry, but I disagree with your article regarding the demographic
> analysis. There is a huge influx of young consumers in the United
> States from foreign countries who are contributing to the economy
> and compensating for spent boomers. There will be no appreciable
> showdown in consumption in the United States that can be attributed
> to demographics.
With that said, it is certainly true that the Republicans were complicit and that all Washington ignored their fiduciary duty. But now we have a President that can do no wrong according to the media and because he can't do any wrong he will repeat the same wrongs that have been made before. Power corrupts and it will this time also. If you don't think so, then you are naive and ignorant of the world. I am from Chicago and I know how Chicago politics works. That is the only political system Obama has ever worked in.
On May 08 03:44 PM jr007 wrote:
Try to remember which CONGRESS and
> PRESIDENT caused all this... by their lack of oversight, deregulation,
> tax breaks, unfounded foreign wars, wild spending deficits, alienation
> of former allies.... and who enacted and passed the $750B original
> TARP money program.
> this sounds to me like another doomsday prediction.there have been
> a lot of movies on cable TV reguarding December 21 2012
> all the planets in the solar system will be alinged on that day.
>
> no one seems to know if it will happen on the stroke of midnight
> or not
> what shall we do? nothing !
> what will be will be the future is not for us to see as the song
> goes.
Of course the future is ours to see, all we have to do is use data in an objective manner and we can see much more clearly, though never perfectly.
An example would be in 2007 when all the data suggested that we had finally blown up the bubble to far and the market started to rumble and shake...time to get out!
Now?...well, it's easy to see that right now things are getting less worse but it seems clearer than ever, to me at least, that things will get worse once again before they get better. At the very least, when was the last time the stock market went up for any period of time while interest rates were going up? BTW, they're at ZERO...nowhere to go but up.
> Cetin never has and never will have any supporting data....
Cetin is a hoax. Or perhaps Larry Kudlow's love child? :-)
CN & IN are still neophytes in global military & diplomacy, even if they have a few $ or EUR.
with BZL a few steps behind.
and RU, NG, & VNZ just int'l gas stations.
On May 08 10:08 AM Econ 101 wrote:
> Everyone compares this economic downturn to the 1930s. The proper
> paralell is the 1870s when the railroad boom and bust caused cash
> shortages accross the country. It was also the point when the United
> States overtook England as the dominant country in the world. England
> didnt die, it just faded in power. That is what is happening to
> the US today while China is moving up.
>
> The difference is that the English government didnt pile on a bunch
> of debt to enslave the next several generations to the bankers like
> the US government has.
> Sorry, but I disagree with your article regarding the demographic
> analysis. There is a huge influx of young consumers in the United
> States from foreign countries who are contributing to the economy
> and compensating for spent boomers. There will be no appreciable
> showdown in consumption in the United States that can be attributed
> to demographics.
I'd really love to see a single comment stream on this site where you don't break up the intelligent dialogue with your ignorant and market cheerleading.
I hate to even debate you at this point since your dot-com-style conviction that the most recent market direction is the only relevant variable has made you immune to considering any facts that do not fit your worldview. However:
The LEGAL immigration figures are not significantly changing the population totals on an annual basis. There is a lot of ILLEGAL immigration as well, but I find it difficult to believe the 10-20 million illegal immigrants are magically going to "compensate" for "spent" boomers rather than struggling to get by just like everyone else.
As far as I'm concerned , Dent has been right on the money on all of his demographic predictions . In 2006 he predicted the 2009 Great Depression and here we are . By following his advise I was able to sell out in time and retired early . I've been retired now for 5 years and without Dent , I would be down and out broke like my old competitors who stayed to long .
TheReaper!
Have you noticed that there are a lot of this demographic going home because of unemployment? it doesn't matter where you are from, if you are out of a job it has the same effect.
On May 08 08:20 AM Cetin Hakimoglu wrote:
> Sorry, but I disagree with your article regarding the demographic
> analysis. There is a huge influx of young consumers in the United
> States from foreign countries who are contributing to the economy
> and compensating for spent boomers. There will be no appreciable
> showdown in consumption in the United States that can be attributed
> to demographics.
On May 08 08:21 AM VennData wrote:
> ...and a few years ago he wrote a book The Next Great Bubble Boom:
> How to Profit from the Greatest Boom in History: 2006-2010.
>
> It's called being an opportunist.
He also advised in his book to start going into real estate in the late 1990's and to lighten up on this investment sector in 2005. If you followed his advice on a macro level and injected a bit of common sense and tea leaf reading of your own on a micro level, then you were richly rewarded.
My own experience has been guided by his advice. I lightened up on tech equities and loaded up on resort real estate in the late 90' and early 2000's. I started getting out of real estate in 2005, albeit not as fast as I should have. I got out of the stock market in Jan. 2008 after events started unfolding just as Dent had described in his book 10 years earlier.
To Dent's critics I say, disregarding his fundamental analysis and macro economic prognostications will put your financial future in jeopardy.
Dent's one shortcoming is his inability to get the timing "perfect". However, as with most things in life, if you get it 80% right you are much further ahead. In my case, following Dent's model has translated into a few million dollars, starting with a very, very modest base.
As for people who poo-poo those who are not optimistic about our current economy I would say, stick with the politicians who are selling blue sky and false dreams and check back in 10 years for a review. My guess is their lives will be much less prosperous and they will still be searching for perfect solutions. Since that world doesn't exist, stick with that which over time has been more right than wrong. For me that has been Dent's musings.
Count me a believer.
On May 08 08:20 AM Cetin Hakimoglu wrote:
> Sorry, but I disagree with your article regarding the demographic
> analysis. There is a huge influx of young consumers in the United
> States from foreign countries who are contributing to the economy
> and compensating for spent boomers. There will be no appreciable
> showdown in consumption in the United States that can be attributed
> to demographics.
Dent gives us all something to look forward to, including:
** The Dow hitting 40,000 by the end of the decade
** The Nasdaq advancing at least ten times from its October 2001 lows to around 13,500, and potentially as high as 20,000 by 2009
** Another strong advance in stocks in 2005, with a significant correction into around September/October 2006
** The Great Boom resurging into its final and strongest stage in 2007, and even more fully in 2008, lasting until late 2009 to early 2010
On May 08 08:21 AM VennData wrote:
> ...and a few years ago he wrote a book The Next Great Bubble Boom:
> How to Profit from the Greatest Boom in History: 2006-2010.
>
> It's called being an opportunist.
The comments here are awesome! Some have ventured into immigration/population and unfunded liabilities like social sec and medicare. Just got through the book The Coming Generational Storm....its a few years old but still a shocker. I'm sure many of you have read it but WOW.....
As to the mkt going forward from here:
1. The trend is your friend, we'll see how prices respond to Dow 9100 and S&P 943 shortly, will it be acceptance or rejection?
2. Media should consider not equating a Dow level with economic health.
3. Has the mkt priced in all the uncertainty from last year?
4. Will 'Spending Exhaustion' allow the next round of troubled companies to fail properly and allow that uncomfortable but perhaps longer lasting process called 'creative destruction' to take over?
5. Will the Fed be willing to take action and monitor the Dollar to slow down the erosion of its reserve currency standing?
1. There is still over $50Trillion with a "T" of toxic CDS paper over-hanging the Financial Institutions that barely gets mentioned anywhere.
2. The Government is printing money like made. Hyper-inflation to follow.
3. The Banks are Bankrupt. The majors. The Fed and Treasury and FDIC are powder-coating the real numbers. The stress test was stressful for these liars, but they are getting over that as I type this.
4. Real Estate is not bottoming.
5. The Stock market is over-valued.
6. You might say that Baby Boomers were busted with the old adage, "The stock market beats everything in the long run." Well, YOU CAN TIME THE MARKET and those boomers bought into the buy and hold strategy pushed by Schwab and the rest.
7. There are 20 more right off the top of my hat....but, Boomers will be working until they are 80 to barely make ends meet due to number 2 above. They are in trouble. I am one of them, but got out of the Stock market in early 2007. My most brilliant move ever. Sold covered calls on GOOG and the rest, banked that cash and the rest of my holdings are in MMF and Bonds, with a few pieces of dead real estate.
I deduct from your bio that, like me your are a "geriatric parent"-lots of luck with that!
I remember Dent from the 70s when he was one of those guys touting gold, silver and acerage in Jojoba beans or like wacko investments. maybe this is his son?
On May 08 10:14 AM Larry House wrote:
> Thanks for the comments. I am not a disciple of Dent, but I find
> all opinions worth considering. I find it interesting that George
> Soros has called for the bottom of the downturn to occur in late
> '09, followed by a weak, flatline recovery extending for years.
On May 08 10:14 AM Larry House wrote:
> Thanks for the comments. I am not a disciple of Dent, but I find
> all opinions worth considering. I find it interesting that George
> Soros has called for the bottom of the downturn to occur in late
> '09, followed by a weak, flatline recovery extending for years.
percentages of young immigrants will take years to get to a spendinglevel beyond a new (used) pickup truck, candy and adornments to the body to show their new wealth. we have to go thru a 'period'.
be careful
On May 08 08:20 AM Cetin Hakimoglu wrote:
> Sorry, but I disagree with your article regarding the demographic
> analysis. There is a huge influx of young consumers in the United
> States from foreign countries who are contributing to the economy
> and compensating for spent boomers. There will be no appreciable
> showdown in consumption in the United States that can be attributed
> to demographics.
The numbers he throws out are useless and should be ignored but his overall understanding shouldn't be. If all you took from his book was the Dow would hit 35k you were missing his point.
Seem to have set a negitive record here ..... For good reason you just make stuff up as you go. Quantity and quality are two different things.
.00305 % is not a tidal wave of immigrants .888 total is not even outstanding compared to the past....... I have to wonder if your economy is on some other plant........
Demographic statistics from the CIA World Factbook
The following demographic statistics are from the CIA World Factbook, unless otherwise indicated.
[edit] Age structure
(2007 est.)
0−19 years: 27.4% (male 42,667,761; female 40,328,895)
20−64 years: 60.1% (male 89,881,041; female 90,813,578)
65 years and over: 12.6% (male 15,858,477; female 21,991,195)
[edit] Population growth rate
0.888% (2008 est.)
[edit] Population projections
(2008 US Census Bureau data)[48]
2010: 310,232,863
2020: 341,386,665
2030: 373,503,674
2040: 405,655,295
2050: 439,010,253
[edit] Immigration|Net migration rate
3.05 migrants/1,000 population (2007 est.)
[edit] Life expectancy
(source: Census Bureau, 2007):
total population: 78.10 years
male: 75.20 years
female: 81.00 years
The U.S. population is expected to rise to 420 million in 2050 and then 571 million in 2100.
In other words, Harry Dent claims he has a crystal ball and is able to predict the future? If he could accurately predict the direction of the stock market, he would be the richest man in the world, he certainly would be richer than Warren Buffett or George Soros.
Funny how I never heard of Harry Dent before.
If he i
Instead you should read people like Jeremy Gratham, Warrent Buffet who have been consistently right.
There is no question US is in tough situation. The consumption is not going to be what it used to be in the past 10 years. The effect is going to be short term rather than permanent because in the long term it is good people are saving more money than spending. The economy is resilient enough to adjust to the new equilibrium.
On May 08 09:07 AM Davmors wrote:
> Harry Dent has no credibility. Let's remember that this is the guy
> who predicted Dow 35,000 not too many years ago.
On May 08 02:58 PM WAKEUP wrote:
> NO credibility? Please, let's pull back on some of that armchair,
> smug, kneejerk rhetoric. Yes, Dent has missed some (and who hasn't?),
> but at the time his incorrect predictions were made, there were many,
> many other knowledgeable people who agreed, based on the data available
> at the time. And how about this? "In the late 1980s, Dent forecast
> that the Japanese economy, then the DARLING OF THE WORLD, would soon
> enter a slowdown that would last more than a DECADE. In the early
> 1990s, he predicted that the DOW would reach 10k. BOTH OF THESE PREDICTIONS
> WERE MET WITH MUCH SKEPTICISM, AND YET BOTH EVENTUALLY CAME TO PASS."
> No credibility? Wrong, and wrong. Better get out of that stock market,
> while you can.
>
> On May 08 09:07 AM Davmors wrote:
First the good news: The recession is over.Now the bad news: The Great Depression and Pain are about to begin very soon...
On May 08 03:44 PM jr007 wrote:
> TeresaE.. Sorry that you are suffering a depression in Michigan.
> I doubt that you will see 50% unemployment there or anywhere else,
> however because the current administration is doggedly trying to
> reverse this horrible situation. Try to remember which CONGRESS and
> PRESIDENT caused all this... by their lack of oversight, deregulation,
> tax breaks, unfounded foreign wars, wild spending deficits, alienation
> of former allies.... and who enacted and passed the $750B original
> TARP money program. I hope you can take advantage of some of the
> retraining or educational opportunities that are being provided and
> find another vocation. Please don't give up hope..it will get better.
>
>
>
>
>
Raise tax on top earner to 90s level is not going to wreck the economy. If it were to raise to much higher level, then I would agree.
The key point is whether it is stock market, politics, people tend to predict the two extremes - that's where you get attention, the reality comes to somewhere in between.
On May 09 06:32 PM CuriousMonkey5 wrote:
> You seriously think Obama and the dems are going to fix everything
> with their policies? How? With their shameful pork "stimulus" bill?
> By raising taxes? With inefficient massive spending programs in areas
> like energy and health care? Just because many voters are naive doesn't
> mean these are good things to do. More likely they are exactly the
> wrong things to do, especially now. Remember, the dems are not solving
> for "doing the right thing," that is just the pitch to voters. They
> are solving for controlling everything.
>
(That is why most people write books by the way. It is not to really help, inform or enlighten anyone)
I'd say he pretty smart in that regard.
What ever happened to the Texas Ratio? It's on Wikipedia and gives a good idea as to future Bank faiures.
Tico Charlie
On May 08 09:42 AM Prudent Man CFA wrote:
> The "Stress Test" claims the major banks need $35 billion. What happened
> to the $20 Trillion, with a T, of unsecured, toxic derivatives? Insofar
> as supposedly there is less that $4 Trillion of "sideline money",
> the numbers don't jive.
>
> As an agnostic regarding market direction, it is hard for me to see
> anything optimistic in the current economy. It appears that the Administration
> and their media are pushing hard, since they have gotten their controls
> from Congress, to talk up the economy. Considering the pessimism,
> which BHO used to push his Socialistic Agenda, has changed to optimism
> on a dime it must be questioned as to its veracity. After all our
> economy is now controlled by self-serving politicians. Only a Crony
> Capitalist would want to be a partner with them.
Google Texas Ratio.
Tico Charlie
Dent missed the real estate and commodity bubble.. But was DEAD ON for there being a monster bubble in the making.
Dents work is revolutionary and brilliant in my opinion. You just need to be able to read between the lines (something few college grads are able to do) The world needs more objective thinkers like Dent.
We're in for a 13 year bust and we'll sure as hell get it in my opinon.
On May 09 09:14 AM andypandy wrote:
> good call :
>
> Dent gives us all something to look forward to, including:
>
> ** The Dow hitting 40,000 by the end of the decade
>
> ** The Nasdaq advancing at least ten times from its October 2001
> lows to around 13,500, and potentially as high as 20,000 by 2009
>
>
> ** Another strong advance in stocks in 2005, with a significant correction
> into around September/October 2006
>
> ** The Great Boom resurging into its final and strongest stage in
> 2007, and even more fully in 2008, lasting until late 2009 to early
> 2010
On May 09 08:39 PM Donkey Kong wrote:
> I can opine on the veracity of your paper. So why can't you apply
> any quantitative analysis to your stock market prognostications?
> Seems like you rely on rudimentary technical analysis and momentum.
> This disconnect is troublesome and makes me think you are just another
> charlatan.
>
DO NOT waste your time with anything associated with this Cetin character.
He is either a fake or plagiarized that paper from elsewhere.
Cetin works at WalMart, dreams of being the lead character from the movie "Good Will Hunting", and posts non stop on Seeking Alpha to the tune of 99% negative reviews for one reason:
To promote his friends website.
(The one you see constantly linked to in his posts)
In the mean time I’ll can only hope that I continue to profit off the backs of institutional and especially retail, short-covering!
Cetin = Charlatan
On May 09 09:21 PM archman82011 wrote:
> Donkey Kong:
>
> DO NOT waste your time with anything associated with this Cetin character.
>
>
> He is either a fake or plagiarized that paper from elsewhere.
>
> Cetin works at WalMart, dreams of being the lead character from the
> movie "Good Will Hunting", and posts non stop on Seeking Alpha to
> the tune of 99% negative reviews for one reason:
>
> To promote his friends website.
> (The one you see constantly linked to in his posts)
a _calibrated_ crystal ball. Harry Dent and Peter Schiff got the
timing and direction of the big market move down.
Both have reasons that seem to make sense.
No one else that I've heard of came close.
-Bob
> The transition from the Fear trade to the Inflation trade is in progress.
To a certain extent, yes, but I think it's premature. The fundamentals are still strongly negative across the board and haven't picked up nearly enough to be considered positive.
If we see another major market correction (which I think is likely to begin between now and July 4), we'll see a revived Fear trade before we hit the bottom and revert to the Inflation trade.
Inflation also hasn't really started to hit yet, and seems unlikely to rear its head until late summer at the earliest, so betting on inflation right now seems premature.
> I'm glad I don't waste my money on obvious attempts like this to
> be outrageous for attention. Keep thinking the world is going to
> collapse; see what wonders that does for you…
>
> In the mean time I’ll can only hope that I continue to profit off
> the backs of institutional and especially retail, short-covering!
Not sure if you noticed, but we DID have a kind of a massive drop between October 19 2008 and March 6 2009 -- roughly a 56% drop in the S&P. Anybody who shorted that made a killing.
So, thinking the world was going to collapse was actually pretty smart starting around October 19.
It's likely to be smart again if the rally collapses between now and July 4.
oh really, does it?
fools the two of u.
this kind of garbage does not belong on SA.
On May 08 01:18 PM Jason Rines (iThinkBig) wrote:
> The earth settles on it's axis every 26,000 years. People don't understand
> that it is a slight accelerating event a decade to and a decade after
> that the shifting creates volcanism, earthquakes and tsunamis. Mankind's
> behavior patterns in archeology seem to reflect the event. What will
> happen on December 21st 2012? Nothing. But in general, it is an ending
> of one era and the start of another one. Mankind's progress never
> moves in a straight line.
>
> The Mayans were not the only advanced mathematical culture to map
> human cyclical behaviors. It appears that 2012-2021 would be turbulent
> if you combine further volcanism effects of earth shift and settle
> on axis and human cyclical behavior.
>
> Each era shows improvement to mankind's quality of life then the
> previous one and each era grows shorter as technology accelerates.
> Live in faith, not in fear. That said, no harm in hoping for the
> best and preparing for the worst. Let's put it this way, I am not
> building a bunker anytime soon but am looking at some vacation property
> that is out of the way and could dual as safe place if civil unrest
> gets out of control. Lakeside properties in my neck of the woods
> are beginning to look very reasonable again.
In any case, I do believe we are into bad times – Govt. actions are going to make everything much worse. Govt. is trying to manipulate markets, bailouts, Chrysler bankruptcy issues, BofA/Merrill merger issues, money printing…. This thing is going to end every badly, if not a Depression we definitely will have a great Recession. In words of Microsoft CEO Steve Balmer- “we have been suffering through is no normal recession, but rather a reset to a lower level, a kind of severe rejiggering of the economy that Ballmer says has happened just four times in the past 200 years.”
I am not buying into equities for a long time.
On May 08 09:07 AM Davmors wrote:
> Harry Dent has no credibility. Let's remember that this is the guy
> who predicted Dow 35,000 not too many years ago.
I see very tough years ahead of us and I cannot see any reasonable solution except to pay the bill now.
Stress test? Political play. Who has to much overcapacity and cannot sustain itself should close down. Bofa should not be there anymore. If we don't allow this our problems will just get bigger and burst out of control in the future.
Immigrants with high tech skills? Seriously?
Is there a hidden city somewhere in the US where Mexican chemical engineers are coming up with radical new advances in science that will propel us all out of this morass?
Granted, I'm only going by anecdotal evidence here, but I think the only business in the US that benefits from our immigration policy is McDonalds.
The vast majority of our immigrants work for minimum, or less, wages. Most of these send the money they make flipping burgers at McDonals back home to Mexico. What's left over is spent dining at McDonalds.
Although I'm sure you can point out exceptions, as a rule our immigrant population is about as far from "high tech" as they could possibly be.
Perhaps you weren't aware of his book "The Great Bubble Boom" released in 2004, or his Dow 20,000 book a few years earlier. Dent is like the rest of the mainstream media hams who steer you suckers in the poor house. And you deserve it because you're too ignorant and lazy to do proper due diligence on these snake-oil salesmen. The same goes with Peter Schiff.
These guys are markers; that's all they are. And if you listen to their "advice" you will lose more than if you listen to the perma-bulls.
Fact: you will NEVER find a REAL EXPERT with VALUABLE investment guidance on TV or wityh a book in the top 10. For those sheep who think I am wrong, ask yourself this question...if I am wrong, why do you all get blasted in the market?
If you kids want to ever have a chance at avoiding being taken advatage of you need to stay away from the guys who hit the mainstream media because they hit the mainstream for a very good reason - to steer you people into financial destruction.
Those who ignore track records and pay attention to the clowns in the mainstream media deserve to lse everything. I've lost my tolerance with sheep. They are beyond help. And most likely, thevast majority of those who read my post won't get it.
On May 08 11:58 AM TeresaE wrote:
> Michigan is IN a depression and it is spreading across our country.
>
>
> American consumers, politicians and "experts" have totally discounted
> the FACT that our economy was 100% surviving on free, easy credit
> and that Congress took that away from us.
>
> Right when the effects of offshoring over 5 million FAMILY SUPPORTING
> jobs was beginning to be felt.
>
> For some of us, namely non-rich, non-executive @ huge corporations
> and non-government worker--we will be in a never ending depression
> as our small businesses are shut down by banks, taxes & regulations--thus
> guaranteeing that 50% of the population will be chronically unemployed
> and sucking the government bottle.
>
> The other 50% (or less) get to pay for it. Good luck to us all.
(for reasons for another post)
On May 10 07:38 AM yellowhoard wrote:
> Cetin,
>
> Immigrants with high tech skills? Seriously?
>
> Is there a hidden city somewhere in the US where Mexican chemical
> engineers are coming up with radical new advances in science that
> will propel us all out of this morass?
>
> Granted, I'm only going by anecdotal evidence here, but I think the
> only business in the US that benefits from our immigration policy
> is McDonalds.
>
> The vast majority of our immigrants work for minimum, or less, wages.
> Most of these send the money they make flipping burgers at McDonals
> back home to Mexico. What's left over is spent dining at McDonalds.
>
>
> Although I'm sure you can point out exceptions, as a rule our immigrant
> population is about as far from "high tech" as they could possibly
> be.
Dent belongs to the CNBC sheep herders. and he is a hack for Wall Street and the mutual fund industry.
But you see, since the masses are very ignorant and gullible, most people cater to their stupidity, greed and desperation. In the end, these snake-oil salesmen are the only ones who makes money, whether they are right (rarely) or wrong (almost always) because you don't research their track record and you can't spot their agendas (although they are too apparent). Instead of paying someone (or buying their books, newsletters, etc.) who has been right, fall for their BS because they've sold you, just like the infomercial kings, Kevin Trudeau or Carlton Sheets.
Experts, guys that really know how to make money don't speand their time on TV telling you how they can make you money. And they don't roll out a new book every 3 years changing their mind about the stock market like Dent. Heck Harry, the market can only go two directions - up or down. You should have been able to cover that in 2 books rather than the 5 or 6 you've written in the past few years.
Oh and by the way, I heard Dent recently bought a new Maserati (no joke). And he wants to thank you suckers who helped pay for it.
On May 08 09:29 AM accountant wrote:
> I agree that one has to take a look at Dent's history before placing
> a whole lot of credibility on his current book. He seems to pretty
> much get it totally wrong with each attempt.
>
> Regarding aging boomers - the boomer group is 18 years long (1946
> through1963). The very first of the boomers just reached 62 in 2008.
> Many to most of the boomers are just now hitting or are in their
> highest income years of their lives, which normally occurs in people's
> 50's.
>
> The downsizing and reduced spending referred to by others above will
> gradually occur, but in reality, it will be down the road a minimum
> of 5, perhaps 10 years before it will start to have any significant
> impact on the economy. Prior to that time, the continued growth
> in population (which grows by about 2 million people per year) will
> more than offset any cut backs by the boomers. And offset against
> that is that many boomers are still in the process of putting kids
> through college, paying for weddings, or paying off college bills
> of their kids. When that is completed, it will free up significant
> amounts of money for many of the younger boomer families.
>
> The population growth is also why the housing crisis well self correct
> within the next 12 months - we add almost a million new households
> per year in this country, plus we take out close to a half million
> existing houisng units each year. Translation - as long as we are
> having housing starts at an annual rate of under 600,000, we are
> absorbing close to 100,000 units of excess housing inventory each
> and every month.
On May 08 09:57 AM Gem Hudson wrote:
> If making the money is earning the money, earned money is than capital
> money. Because you have sold what you have produced.
>
> The wealth of the dollar is in its capital society. Because producing
> what you can sell is to be private both in your property and enterprise.
> A capitalist society will appreciate the dollar but depreciating
> the dollar is to produce nothing for the money. Because money printed
> up is nothing else but paper money until earned. All the government
> can do is print up and not earn the money. Anything else is a lie.
Even if you claim not to be a PROPONENT of algorithmic trading, you clearly posted that you had formula that showed how the market moves and a formula for finding the probability of a stock or index hitting a certain price level. I assume that is how you are generating the returns you claim. Put up or shut up.
In the interest of accuracy, I have never seen you reference anything close to fundamental analysis. Please just tell the truth and admit you simply believe in price momentum.
YIC
Donkey Kong
On May 10 05:44 PM Cetin Hakimoglu wrote:
> I never claimed to be a proponent of algorithmic trading. The vast
> majority of my posts allude to fundamental analysis with a few technicals
> spliced in.
>
> Somewhere you said you would ignore my posts, but you just can't
> resist, huh?
>
> On May 10 05:33 PM Donkey Kong wrote:
Liberals don't understand how to grow the economy...they only understand how to grow government....so you may be right - this existing government will "suffocate business" with "restrictions and taxes" that may actually cause a real depression ....
On May 08 11:58 AM TeresaE gwrote:
> Michigan is IN a depression and it is spreading across our country.
I think it is cruicial to understand that four powerful factors are at work AGAINST a sustained and strong economic growth going forward:
1) demographics (Dent)
2) delevarging (households, banks, corporations)
3) huge government interventions and deficit spending which leads to inefficient use of funds and sucks up a ton of savings that will not be available for corporations
4) increasing expenditures for food and energy even amid a very weak economy (Obama's cap and trade tax, peak oil, growing shortfall in world agricultural commodities)
I may add 5) a society that follows an absolutely unsustainable way of life leading to diminished natural resources, unhealthy and even outright toxic nutrition, an ever increasing end reinforcing spiral of diseases, meidcal treatments of symptoms, new diseases etc.
Of course, if poit 5) doesn't get reversed on a global scale, money and stock prices will not matter at allö anymore 100 years from now. mankind will simply have killed itself . life, though will go on - the universe couldn't care less for just another species that extincted itself due to its own ignorance and aroogance
On May 08 08:20 AM Cetin Hakimoglu wrote:
> Sorry, but I disagree with your article regarding the demographic
> analysis. There is a huge influx of young consumers in the United
> States from foreign countries who are contributing to the economy
> and compensating for spent boomers. There will be no appreciable
> showdown in consumption in the United States that can be attributed
> to demographics.
Ken Lewis doesn't look happy.
On May 09 11:33 PM Missing_Link wrote:
> On May 09 09:40 PM DonFurio wrote:
Even adjusted for immigration the 35-50 age group will be 6 million fewer people than the previous years. Fewer people just can't spend more than more peple who were fueled with debt.
On May 08 08:20 AM Cetin Hakimoglu wrote:
> Sorry, but I disagree with your article regarding the demographic
> analysis. There is a huge influx of young consumers in the United
> States from foreign countries who are contributing to the economy
> and compensating for spent boomers. There will be no appreciable
> showdown in consumption in the United States that can be attributed
> to demographics.
* Cetin Hakim...: says (( Sorry, but I disagree with your article regarding the demographic analysis. There is a huge influx of young consumers in the United States from foreign countries who are contributing to the economy and compensating for spent boomers. There will be no appreciable showdown in consumption in the United States that can be attributed to demographics. ))
I think your ideas here are flawed. Many of those young consumers in the United States from foreign countries have already begun to go back home , as they were some of the first to lose their jobs when companies began to cut back. This will negate your theory, at least to some degree.Besides, many of these from other countries that you mention, hold lower paying jobs, so won't be able to contribute as much as you seem to think.
We as a collective whole , have lost so much wealth in the past 2 years, it will be difficult for the American consumer to restart that which held us up for so many years.Lost Money in the Stock market(i.e. Retirement Funds) Lost wages(i.e. Lost Jobs)Lost Income from depreciating home values, has left the general public with only 1 choice. Savings . We must , and will begin saving more, which translates into less spending and a much slower economy,for many years to come.Can we Say Japan(Lost Decade)?