Job Numbers from the Bureau of Spurious Statistics 52 comments
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"We're leveling off! We're leveling off!"—so is the hope of TTT, Helicopter Ben, Larry the Wall Street Lackey and the rest of Team Obama. "This recession is leveling off!"
No it's not: The unemployment figures just released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics are totally cosmetic: We lost a whole lot more than 531,000 unemployed.
- First, the "seasonal adjustment", which is a black box that can tweak me into looking like Dumbo the flying elephant. They're knocking off ±65,000 workers for no clearly discernible reason.
- Second, notice that the Census Bureau hired 60,000 people last month. Those workers (by definition) are temporary, and are a net cost to the economy, as they will not be adding marginal utility to any economic sector, the census being merely a social expenditure.
Those two items alone turn 530,000 new unemployed into 655,000.
Now notice how, once again, previous months' figures have been readjusted. This time, the readjustments weren't so bad — a mere 30,000 more unemployed in February, turning that month's official totals to 681,000, and another 30,000 for March, making that month's official number 699,000, just shy of that magic 700,000 monthly number (BTW, remember back in the good old days when 300,000 monthly unemployed was"shocking"?)
But notice too: When those more realistic numbers were released, the markets were more or less copacetic — at least they weren't nervously contemplating another suicidal round of cliff-diving, as we currently are. Ever since the October '08 release of Sept. '08 unemployment, when arguably the BLS numbers had a role in triggering the sell-off of that very nasty month, the unemployment numbers have been generally rosy whenever there's been general nervousness in the markets around the time of the number's release. I know this sounds crazy-man paranoid, but bear with me: Every time the markets have been nervous, the BLS numbers look pretty good, or at least not that bad, relatively speaking — and then the next month the figures are very quietly revised, sometimes by as much as 35% on the upward side.
I will bet one double Quarter Pounder with cheese and bacon that next month, the revisions of the April numbers will be on the order of an additional 85,000 unemployed. My guess is that, discounting the Census Bureau hirings, April saw 680,000 newly unemployed workers.
That would mean that unemployment isn't accelerating — but it's still growing fast enough to scare the hell out of anyone sane. And anyway, what industry or sector of the economy will be able to absorb all of those unemployed workers in the near-term future?
Now wait for May and especially June numbers, when 2 million new college grads can't find steady work.
This baby ain't over yet.
Ruminations compliments of Gonzalo
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On May 08 01:02 PM Cetin Hakimoglu wrote:
> Why is everything a hoax or a conspiracy? Why can't we accept that
> maybe things are improving?
It seems you just don't understand that it is time no matter who is at fault to stop the BS. Remember this administrations references to transparency. That essentially means "truth". Spin is not truth. Unless we want to spin the meaning of "truth". It seems like you are saying because the last administration (republican) did it, it is OK. NO, it is time to stop the BS. And the consumption game "won't feed the bulldog". Stop defending the status quo BS and demand more of your government. I am a democrat and am disgusted with this administration. I am about to say Bush was better. Are you sure you don't have some pompoms in your closet?
www.bls.gov/news.relea...
I guess the conspirators need to work on the visibility angle...
On May 08 01:02 PM Cetin Hakimoglu wrote:
> Why is everything a hoax or a conspiracy? Why can't we accept that
> maybe things are improving?
On May 08 01:56 PM theobannion wrote:
> Cheer up, Yo', Obama's gonna retrain the unemployed to flip burgers.
>
>
> Best,
> SOB.
It becomes even more suspect with the monthly backfill that continuously increases prior unemployment numbers.
And just to make things worse, we don't even count disenfranchised workers in the unemployment statistics because they are "not in the labor force." By comparison, our unemployment rate might be closer to about 15% if we included everyone in Detroit who decided to stop looking for work and sell drugs.
At least during the Depression era the government counted everyone who couldn't find a job.
No, having been a statistical analyst and economic forecaster, I side with Tyler on this one. The Larry Summers of the Obama administration are blowing smoke up our butts in a public sector Bernie Madoff scandal that will be uncovered shortly.
On May 08 11:37 AM cyclingscholar wrote:
> Reminds me of the articles which were carping during the Bush years
> that the 'inflation rate is actually 10% annually instead of the
> reported 2%," whining about hedonic price adjustments.
>
> The trials and tribulations of seasonal adjustments are discussed
> at length in ANY FRESHMAN STATISTICS course, and I suggest Durden
> and his tail of toadies take one.
>
> Better yet, since the BLS is supposedly so 'biased,' why not just
> get rid of the agency all together?
>
> cyclingscholar
Oh and I am a union member by force not choice and I am a college grad.
unemployment, infation, banking, defecits, national debt, trade imbalace, BAILOUTS.....maybe i will make that tin foil hat.
our founding documents are more important than ever. restoration is a long hard task but worth the effort. if this seems far-fetched give them a read. much of what is wrong was built in direct opposition.
On May 08 01:02 PM Cetin Hakimoglu wrote:
> Why is everything a hoax or a conspiracy? Why can't we accept that
> maybe things are improving?
If I own a company that is losing $1 million a month and then I manage to slow the losses to $800,000 for one month, that still doesn't do me much good... as the owner I'm still losing money and that is still negative no matter which way you swing it.
When job losses reach 0, or we start to see positive employment numbers then there will be something to be happy about.
Excellent Idea !!! Any Reduction Of The Federal Government Outside Of Its Constitutionally Mandated Powers Would Be A Welcome Improvement.
Toadies - He He. Both sides have toadies. Tyler's "Toadies" do not tend to be easily led.
Stats Can Be Skewed By What Is Included And Excluded In The "Polling" or "Data Set". What is of note with governmental statistics is usually what is Excluded.
There Is More To Know Than Can Ever Be Known.
One Pixel Does Not A Picture Make.
On May 08 11:37 AM cyclingscholar wrote:
> Reminds me of the articles which were carping during the Bush years
> that the 'inflation rate is actually 10% annually instead of the
> reported 2%," whining about hedonic price adjustments.
>
> The trials and tribulations of seasonal adjustments are discussed
> at length in ANY FRESHMAN STATISTICS course, and I suggest Durden
> and his tail of toadies take one.
>
> Better yet, since the BLS is supposedly so 'biased,' why not just
> get rid of the agency all together?
>
> cyclingscholar
> a conspiracy is 2 or more working in collusion for deception.
> unemployment, infation, banking, defecits, national debt, trade imbalace,
> BAILOUTS.....maybe i will make that tin foil hat.
> our founding documents are more important than ever. restoration
> is a long hard task but worth the effort. if this seems far-fetched
> give them a read. much of what is wrong was built in direct opposition.
AMEN - To Assume Benevolence Is Foolish !!!
Not All Are Corrupt Just As Not All Are Benevolent !!!
Check out the Governmental Accountability Office reports if you want some "More Realistic" information on current conditions.
Watch Cuomo (New York AG) for the front line in this battle of corruption.
"Nationwide, about two-thirds of people eligible for food stamps receive them. But just 21 percent of poor children get cash welfare; 30 percent of eligible households get subsidized housing; and 44 percent of the unemployed get jobless benefits. "
So if only 44% get benifits, what is the real number of unemployed?
"Nationwide, about two-thirds of people eligible for food stamps receive them. But just 21 percent of poor children get cash welfare; 30 percent of eligible households get subsidized housing; and 44 percent of the unemployed get jobless benefits. "
So if only 44% get benifits, what is the real number of unemployed?
When the Obama administration first took over, their new BLS liars first reported the January unemployment numbers at 596,000. Later on, they quietly revised this figure upwards to 741,000. That is a 24% deviation. I'll bet they underestimated the resultant outcry and it humiliated them into toning it down going forward so that now they try to "only" hold back 10-15% of the true totals when they report the previous months numbers. At that rate, it means we can get under-reporting of around 100,000 when the true numbers are at least 675,000.
On May 10 01:58 AM oldtrdr wrote:
> Cetin,
>
> You forgot to mention the part about, when after training for that
> high tech job, hoping that its not out-sourced to Mumbai.
It already has been. Hmm, maybe we will be turning from being "a nation of immigrants" to "a nation of emmigrants"? Give it about 20 years?
HardToLove
all the silly politicians in germany, be it SPD or CDU or whoever are really small fish compared to paulson, Geithner, Bernanke, Greenspan, GWB, Rumsfeld, Frank Dodd - I could go on for hours!
have you ever seen executives of banks, oil companies getting straight to top government posts in germany over the past 30 years?
Now, compare that to Condie, Cheney, Paulson and all the others crooks...
On May 08 01:18 PM West Coast Commentator wrote:
> Here is a little prospective from a German engineer living here in
> California's beautiful Bay Area: The U.S. unemployment numbers are
> actually quite good. Why?
>
> Because last month 4,375,000 U.S. jobs were NEWLY CREATED. It is
> only because more were shuttered, that the net effect is negative.
> Hey - wake up: This is a vibrant economy, highly flexible and with
> a fundamental growth bias (with a healthy birth rate and high net
> immigration - and unfortunately an attached disregard for the environment).
> It is a bit like a garden in spring - you pull some weeds (sorry
> for offending unemployed readers) and a week after you cannot even
> see the gap - the good plants have used that clearing to spread out
> their leaves. Every month about 4% of the job market turn over -
> an envy of the world.
>
> Case in point: Manufacturing and associated services (e.g. design
> and analysis engineers like us). Of 271 industries, 28% were hiring
> in April, up from 20% in March. And I can tell why as an insider:
> Our customers have either cut too much, or artificially stopped hiring,
> so we contractors have to pick up the workload. Haven't had a free
> weekend in four weeks, and the next one is no exception. As an investor
> who got out in August 2007 when the market just started to dip and
> the housing bubble clearly had popped, I just got back in Yesterday
> 100%. I missed the bottom in March (and the 30% gain since) and I
> might just have gotten in at the middle peak of the "W" market this
> year, but the turning tide of the job market numbers has convinced
> me. Good luck betting against that momentum in the next half year,
> Tyler. Usually there is no such thing.
>
> My old Heimat Germany on the other hand is encrusted in levels of
> regulations and bueraucrats! An average hard-working head of a family
> has to fork over more than half of his/her income to the vultures
> and if he makes the mistake to venture into a shop after that "happy"
> experience, he is allowed to bleed again to the tone of 19% sales
> tax. Any economic growth comes from exports, and they are falling
> hard to the tune of -20%. There you get a really disproportionate
> ratio of new jobs created versus layoffs! The forecasts are another
> million lost (on top of 4 million already) this and next year, and
> this at only a 30 million strong workforce.
>
> So where is all that quickly approaching half of GDP going? New freeways
> in the former communist East (to empty business parks where unemployment
> is at 30%+) and institutionalized layers over layers of buerocracy.
> 4 million state parasites, eh "servants" suck the lifeblood out of
> Germany's future. And as a warning to the U.S. (on a similar track!):
> Once you got to this level, self-preservation is the name of the
> game. You will not find a single (!) politician that critisizes that
> system. Case in point is the socialist's (S.P.D.) head contender
> for chancellor this fall, foreign minister Steinmeier. A buerocracy
> child par excellence - but no intention whatsoever to cut the apparatschiks.
> Worse - no they are proposing an additional "rich tax". I stay here.