We Lost Half a Million Jobs! Hooray!

A slowing rate of job loss isn’t the same thing as job growth.

- James Picerno, “Still Hoping….”, The Capital Spectator, May 8

Stocks gapped up Friday morning on a better than expected April Jobs Report. Non-farm payrolls declined by 539,000 in April - better than the 600,000 expected by Wall Street economists. The official unemployment rate rose to 8.9%.

Also, there were 66,000 new jobs created by the Federal Government. A lot of commentators are saying that is related to the Census. Take those out and we have 605,000 job losses.

Call me a cynic but I always thought job losses were bad. Especially half a million of them - which would result in a 4% increase in the unemployment rate if sustained for a year.

Comments

[masf:]

I wish I could disagree.

May 09 05:43 PM

[UbuTranscen...:]

Greg,

It is refreshing to see your joyful headline celebrating the kind of news that drives our Bizarro markets up. Clearly, we are only another 3 million layoffs from Dow 12,000.

You may pose as a cynic, but I know you are simply cheering the forces that will bring the restoration of the pre-crash values of the 401k accounts that the unemployed will soon need to empty.

Hooray, indeed! Ubu.

May 09 06:36 PM

[PastTense:]

Well, some of us would be happy to see headlines about big-time banking/Wall Street types joining the unemployment lines.

May 09 07:53 PM

[dybydx:]

the only ones that can fire the banking/wall street crooks are their board of directors who are selected by the shareholders of which obama has defacto control over most of the shares outstanding, who was in turn elected by YOU.

that being said, most of the CEO's responsible for this mess have already been fired from their jobs. Merill Lynch sacked their CEO in Nov 07, long before the fallout of Bear Stearn and AIG. It is sad to see however that these CEOs are still entitled to ridiculous compensation to be paid out by their failing companies.

On May 09 07:53 PM PastTense wrote:

> Well, some of us would be happy to see headlines about big-time banking/Wall
> Street types joining the unemployment lines.

May 09 08:11 PM

[Market Sniper:]

Yes indeed. Less bad is now good. Also need to redo the math here. Have you noticed that after these "statistics" are released, they are later, very quietly revised? Ever notice that the revision is NEVER to the better? Benjamin Disraeli had it right...There are three kinds of lies. Lies, damn lies and statistics.

May 09 08:11 PM

[melpol:]

A jobless rate of only 13 million is good news. There are over three hundred million people living well. Until we hear of one case of starvation there is no need to be concerned. Enjoy!!

May 09 08:12 PM

[Buy and Hol...:]

Very well thought out and logical article. We have a patient that has been removed from the DNR list. It's still in the ICU.

That is an improvement but we shouldn't be planning on the patient coming home any time soon.

May 09 08:35 PM

[ed233:]

The thing that has to make you laugh are the pundits. You know the interpretators of the unemployment statistical figures,"It's bad but we thought it would be a little worse." Wow!!! All of a sudden the market goes wild because unemployment figures dropped miserably but a little less than they (pundits) predicted. Who are these pundits? A group of economists who couldn't tell the back side of a door from the front? If they're so brilliant and trust worthy then why couldn't they have determined the danger before the financial crises blew up in the first place? Did they say, we have a warning, a storm is on the horizon, a bubble that could affect the financial stability of the world arising out of the USA financial industry. Or were they saying, "Oh we thought the financial burst would have been a little worse than it really was." Personally I don't think they have a clue about any bubble. There were I admit a couple of doom sayer economists who predicted this financial chaos but their warnings were dismissed by wall street and government because it would be admitting to themselves that they were at fault. But apart from those brave economists, what about the others, the banks economists, research economic groups (funded by you know where), government economists and the media economists who failed or refused to examine factually statistical data that would have clearly pointed to the danger. Those economists I call the weather-men. Those you see very visably on the front lines spewing off on CNBC, CNN, Bloomberg and other media outlets who bring no more certainty about their conclusions then the average joe on the street but who are mainly pawns for wall street and the government. Predictibility on the downside doesn't provide much solace unless it's more than just an opinion. It doesn't take a rocket scienist to determine that if you don't have fuel in a rocket it's going to crash to the ground. Of course, they use guages for rocket ships like economists use statistical data. Why are economists not using their gagues instead of guessing as to the amount of fuel needed to sustain the health of the economy? There is a quantative answer that determines the danger points. Look back at statistical data concerning housing, disposable income, mortgage availability, credit lines, employment and deravitives. It's all public record. There is a quantative answer by extrapolation for determining danger points. Did they exercise this quantitative process? Again those same economists are now predicting the time when we're probably getting out of this economic mess. Is it their best estimate or a quantative process to their conclusion? The general public makes their decisions based on the reliability of their predictions. But I'm no economist but I have a warning. I'll bet all of those economist's predictions will be revised many times before we see the light at the end of this financial turmoil. LOL Looking after you money.

May 09 09:29 PM

[Jasper M:]

dybydx -
"obama has defacto control over most of the shares outstanding, who was in turn elected by YOU"

What you mean "We", white man?

May 09 10:08 PM

[Gob:]

[Call me a cynic but I always thought job losses were bad]

Not with The One in office. Now every data point must be spun, spun, spun to the positive side by his adoring media buttboys.

BTW, why are we even talking about this? Have you seen Michelle's arms? They're so TONED!!!

May 10 12:20 AM

[Fighting Yoda:]

Wall Street can spin anything any which way- better than expected, less worse, 2nd derivative- rate has slowed down. And of course everyone has become a botanist now and can see ‘green shoots’ everywhere.

Wall Street has been taken over by the Plunge Protection team, to facilitate the capital raisings of the banks - as needed. This rally will quickly die as all other recent rallies – fundamentals are horrible – no end to job losses for next several months.

May 10 01:39 AM

[Jasper M:]

Missing,
Dave your breath. He is impervious to all of our scorn. He is above all that. Like he is above our thinking. And our capacity to construct a cogent argument.
Our own Goldilocks Zombie is like SA's version of The Terminator -

"You can't talk to him! You can't reason with him! He doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And he absolutely WILL NOT STOP!"

But (again) I am forced to defend a tiny portion of his ideology: a lot of these jobs Are inefficient. That is an unavoidable side effect of credit inflation: too much money, chasin gtoo few sound business opportunities. The excess flows into crap. Which fails.
But not before asking for handouts.

May 10 01:44 AM

[notsosmart:]

i guess at least 10% of all lost jobs wont come back.how much of the "lost" middle class will come back? i did not vote for obama but i laugh at all the sorelosers who expect this guy to correct one of the biggest messes ever left by an outgoing pres. of course this guy collected 100 million for his "spin" library in 100 days.tell you anything-dumb-dumbs?

May 10 11:25 AM

[trader_murf:]

Thanks Fierman for stating stats without the spin. I feel like watching the media CNCB is like watching some big propaganda machine - green shoots my butt. I mean I hope they are right because I am a capitalist gal at heart. But reality around me says something far different and I know at least some of those 13 million referred to by our colleague "melpol" are deeply in credit card and home equity debt with that waiting to hit the fan. I don't even have to go into the housing sales up - all those foreclosures. Then there are bunches of us are like deer caught in head lights with increasing expenses (inflation? what inflation - must be a figment of my car insurer, mass transit and utilities raising rates). Also 300 million living well? Some of them working for half of what they used to make, working less hours, part-time, working for all benefits taken away. Employers are telling them be grateful you still have a job never mind a paid day off or health insurance. Then there are those who are completely lost to the discouraged workers stats but happy days are here again. Pardon my skepticism.

May 10 11:30 AM

[Ranger:]

Listen, you idiot: a 6% unemployment rate is desirable. Anything under that is inflationary--always has been. We are 3% above 6% now...whoopee, big deal. With marginal decline having now appeared. What is the matter with you?

May 10 11:55 AM

[Al-USA:]

Ranger, before you call people by your most desired surname, educate yourself on the manipulation of government statistics, especially the calculation of "official" unemployment by going to

ShadowStats.com

Have fun...

May 10 01:01 PM

[ebworthen:]

Agreed.

I get a little upset when people say over and over that unemployment a lagging indicator?

I think it depends on what kind of economic cycle you are in.

Unemployment was the leading indicator in the early 1930's and the market was lagging.

So our current crisis was caused by a debt bubble but people losing their jobs not being able to pay debts is a lagging indicator?

HELLO. The market isnot going to recover with 10%+ unemployment, deficit spending, trillions in cash flooding the market, and encouraging more debt (have you seen the home equity adds popping back up?).

Can you say Spring of 1930?

May 11 04:57 AM

[kohalakid:]

I'd concur that celebrating the loss of half a million jobs as "not as bad as we expected" is a little silly. During the Bush administration, the airwaves were filled with those who said if we didn't create 180,000 new jobs per month we were falling behind and the Bush Economy was built on a foundation of sand. Now we lose half a million and, well, somehow it's OK. Many of those job losses will translate into home foreclosures. This "recovery" looks very shaky
and the reporting of it looks even worse.

May 11 01:23 PM