My Sirius Gamble

On Monday I bought 25,000 shares of SIRI and wrote out the September $1 for $10 per contract (10 cents a share). My cost per share is 31 cents. Siri is about 35% off of its high reached about 2 weeks ago. I didn't go to Vegas with my friends last weekend, so I figured this was my gamble for the year.

click to enlarge

My reason for speculating with Sirius is I believe it may be ready to breakout again, as it looks like there is a falling wedge forming. As you can see major resistance comes in at around 38 cents, therefore I believe we'll get to 38 cents before we break out again. If you can see from the first falling wedge, SIRI was setting lower lows and lower highs, forming a falling wedge (a bullish pattern).

However SIRI held above 38 cents for almost a week before it broke out. If SIRI breaks below 38 cents (and stays below) I would take it as a bearish sign. However if it can hold resistance at 38 cents I think it is due for another breakout. The overall picture on SIRI is bearish, including the MACD and very light up volume. SIRI does not have significant short interest, therefore if the uptick rule is reinstated anytime soon it will not help too much. I guess time will tell how SIRI will hold up at $.38.

Disclosure: Long SIRI

Comments

[User 321:]

crappy siri

May 12 08:05 AM

[relmar2003:]

WHO THE HELL ARE YOU?

Are you frickin kidding me? You hold credance to a support level with this stock? So your saying the MM's are going to fill MILLION AND MILLIONS OF RETAIL SHARE ORDERS AT .40 AND .39, and THEN ITS GOING TO BREAK OUT. Dude what you smoking man? Do you not see that stack at .40? Do you really think going past .40 will cause a selling panic? No way. These stockholders left are iron.... Hard core. THey dont rattle. They take it now, or they have a lot more shares to buy higher than they want too.

May 12 08:09 AM

[relmar2003:]

Break down? So if it breaks .38 you see what? .32? So they are going to allow retailers to gobble up VERY LIMITED SUPPLY of remaining float at below .40 cents? O man, I actually really hope your right. That would be one of the greatest gifts the MM"s have ever given in its entire history. ANOTHER chance to load up at .30s? Wow, I would have to pinch myself. Id be a buyer from .40 all the way to whereever they come to their senses. Target .80 cents as the next leg up high. All my opinion of course..

May 12 08:12 AM

[burnout:]

How eloquently put. Well thought out, with so many facts to back up your viewpoint. Your debate teacher would be proud!


On May 12 08:05 AM 123455 wrote:

> crappy siri

May 12 08:12 AM

[burnout:]

If the author is looking only at the chart he provided he is not looking at the whole picture. I believe Sirius will be substancially higher before we reach September but not because of the very limited information he gives.

May 12 08:18 AM

[InvestBaboo:]

Ok, I am a chart reader and here is my take. What is interesting is there is a Bull-Bear struggle on the daily charts that makes it alternate between Buy and Sell while weekly charts have given a thumbs up as many as 8 weeks ago! I would be a buyer at this point in time with a stop loss at 24 cents. The reason I even have a stop loss is that if it breaks below 24 cents something horrible has happened or going to happen and the charts say the equity is toast (heading to zero which we know won't likely happen with SIRI).

May 12 09:04 AM

[fpcat1:]

charting, bull-bear theories or any study/theory are useless if a stock is being manipulated.

May 12 11:14 AM

[Mr. Stupid:]

You bought 25,000 shares so you must be bullish. I bet you're buying now since the iphone app will be finalized soon.

I'm buying too but chunks at a time just in case because this stock has a way of surprising me going up or going down.


Frank

May 12 12:07 PM

[User 321:]

Like I said crappy Siri.Today? .40 and falling. Blame it on the Auto industry,blame it on less subs(404,000....that's a lot? I guess, that's what I read)blame it on Liberty...maybe? I forgot they bailed them out. Blame it on the economy. Blame it on Mel. Blame it on the Shorts.Blame it on us the Shareholders for being Bullish.Blame it on Market Watch or any other post made about them. Good ones are really hard to find that's for sure.. Where is a positive. i phone deal? NOT yet. When I see it I'll believe it.Who runs Siri anyway? Probably Liberty. Money ,Money they got the money. By the way I am not Short selling and not bashing. Sorry fellas but when they say this stock is LONG it is LONG for sure. Maybe by the end of summer we will might see1.00 and that's wishful thinking.

May 12 01:22 PM

[Sherwyn:]

Go get em, Relmar..................

May 12 03:03 PM

[User 292014:]

I can not believe I have accumulated 526000 shares of this pipe dream. And I keep buying more. Why?... Because this stock is a fcukn' cash cow! Think about how many hundreds of millions of dollars this stock has generated for buyers and sellers in the past 4 months alone. I would feel completely different if the volume was steadily dwindling, but it is not. This means that this stock is continuing to generate interest among traders and will definitely nudge its way up through the seemingly endless trudgery. Although I do feel the frustration like the rest of you, I am a patient guy; and since I have a day job and don't have time to stare at the ticker, I just roll with it and let it ride. A common expression around my house for a while now has been me enthusiastically proclaiming "Sirius is up again honey" to which my wife replies "Yeah... Until it's not." So down it goes and I just add to my accumulation.

May 12 06:13 PM

[CoolHead:]

Relmar,
I think you are right that we are headed up (unless the bashing new hounds strike again which they probably will) but don't you think the next leg up might be closer to $0.62-ish? Why do you think $0.80? Just curious.....


On May 12 08:12 AM relmar2003 wrote:

> Break down? So if it breaks .38 you see what? .32? So they are going
> to allow retailers to gobble up VERY LIMITED SUPPLY of remaining
> float at below .40 cents? O man, I actually really hope your right.
> That would be one of the greatest gifts the MM"s have ever given
> in its entire history. ANOTHER chance to load up at .30s? Wow, I
> would have to pinch myself. Id be a buyer from .40 all the way to
> whereever they come to their senses. Target .80 cents as the next
> leg up high. All my opinion of course..

May 12 08:04 PM

[CoolHead:]

292014,

Wow! 526,000 shares, you ahve a huge upside potential on even a slight movement up like last week. By the way, what is your average cost per share?


On May 12 06:13 PM User 292014 wrote:

> I can not believe I have accumulated 526000 shares of this pipe dream.
> And I keep buying more. Why?... Because this stock is a fcukn' cash
> cow! Think about how many hundreds of millions of dollars this stock
> has generated for buyers and sellers in the past 4 months alone.
> I would feel completely different if the volume was steadily dwindling,
> but it is not. This means that this stock is continuing to generate
> interest among traders and will definitely nudge its way up through
> the seemingly endless trudgery. Although I do feel the frustration
> like the rest of you, I am a patient guy; and since I have a day
> job and don't have time to stare at the ticker, I just roll with
> it and let it ride. A common expression around my house for a while
> now has been me enthusiastically proclaiming "Sirius is up again
> honey" to which my wife replies "Yeah... Until it's not." So down
> it goes and I just add to my accumulation.

May 12 08:07 PM

[CoolHead:]

True!


On May 12 11:14 AM fpc wrote:

> charting, bull-bear theories or any study/theory are useless if a
> stock is being manipulated.

May 12 08:09 PM

[relmar2003:]

Todays bs drop past .40 was just that. Lets see what tomorrow brings. I like what that other guy says better. Buy sell signals.... hes right, this is a huge fighting line, and its not going down that easy. PM tomorrow will be huge. Should show its hand. I might actually have to write to apologize to this author...
hehehe...
My low is actually .38, then i step aside till .33. 80 cents is my next leg up, im not couting this corrective wave between .63 and .32 we are in now.... Yes we will have to hold above .63 before we target .80....
so .80 cents would be my next leg up target. Still a long way to go. If you can believe this, we have closed at or over .44 cents only 4 TIMES since it bottomed. Doesnt sound right does it... Most shares were still bought at these levels....bullish...

May 12 10:18 PM

[drekon:]

resistance below the current price? i thought that was support? regardless, charting penny stocks is useless. siri's price is based on speculation about auto/retail sales, financing its debt, and rumors. institutions are not playing this stock. there is no "support".

May 13 09:36 AM

[David Spence:]

I 100% agree. I say buy now avg down if it drops below .30 but bail if it breaks below .25

On May 12 09:04 AM InvestBaboo wrote:

> Ok, I am a chart reader and here is my take. What is interesting
> is there is a Bull-Bear struggle on the daily charts that makes it
> alternate between Buy and Sell while weekly charts have given a thumbs
> up as many as 8 weeks ago! I would be a buyer at this point in time
> with a stop loss at 24 cents. The reason I even have a stop loss
> is that if it breaks below 24 cents something horrible has happened
> or going to happen and the charts say the equity is toast (heading
> to zero which we know won't likely happen with SIRI).

May 14 01:36 AM