Does Palm's Pre Have Anything on the iPhone or Storm?

With the release of the Palm Pre on the horizon, heavy questions are being asked if it will have any effect on Apple (AAPL) iPhone or the BlackBerry (RIMM) Storm Sales? The most likely answer is no, because the Pre is exclusively for Sprint (S) in the U.S. for the time being, Storm for Verizon (VZ), and the iPhone is exclusively for AT&T (T). But what if the Palm Pre gets better than expected reviews and becomes "celebrity status"? Will it be able to steal the iPhone and Storm's thunder? Let's face it (and I am sure I will get some heat for this one), Apple sells a trend. The birth of the iPod was Apple's second coming. 100% credit given to Apple as I doubt the "i" craze could have been done better by any company. The iPod has also spurred Mac sales, which is helping Apple take market share away from Microsoft (MSFT).

Anyway back to celebrity status... What if the Paris Hiltons of the world suddenly had a Palm Pre instead of the iPhone, would it be able to gain market share better than people expect? My answer to this is yes, I believe if celebrities are caught on camera, making fools of themselves with the Pre in hand, it could increase the demand tremendously for the device. This is what Palm needs to sell in order to survive, a trend! In my opinion, my Palm Treo 650 from 2005 is a better phone than the BlackBerry Storm, but the iPhone will be hard to beat. I think if the Pre turns out to be a good device and "bug-free", it will give the iPhone a run for its money.

The Pre is expected to debut in June sometime, with a huge following. Palm is putting everything into this phone, and if it fails, the company will most likely be filing bankruptcy faster than Enron did, after it was figured out. If the Pre does better than expected, I believe it is just the beginning of a successful road for the company, as more phones will be released with Palm's new webOS.

If the Pre does better than expected, depending on which carriers will get the phone, it will most likely send Sprint higher as well. I know quite a few people who kicked Verizon to the curb, in order to get the iPhone... So it is possible the same thing may happen depending on how hot the Pre is and how long it is exclusively for Sprint. If the Pre is a hot phone as all the reviews (especially CES) show, Palm stock should be a buy. I am a little concerned Palm's stock will sell off a bit on the news (once it is released or date and price info is provided), but once results are released on how the Pre is doing, and if they are good, Palm should be able to rally on that news. I found it hard not to ride the Palm bandwagon.

Disclosure: Long PALM.

Comments

[SiliconVall...:]

Actually, cut-and-paste finally arrives in 3.0.

Landscape virtual KB is for all applications. Some like it, some do not. It sells millions, so many must be able to live with it. My children can :-).

Multi-tasking? A focus that is overblown. For an investor, if you focus only on multi-tasking, then you are risking a lot. Best learn what multi-tasking is and why it may not be as big a deal as you think.

Battery life? Switchable battery is good. I with iPhone has it. On the other hand, our iPhones work just fine all day, no complaints. My children have theirs and no complaints. May be heavy users care a lot more than normal users? What percentage are heavy vs normal users?

Nothing inspiring about iPhone 3.0? Sounds like you are letting personal bias taint your investor's "objectivity"? I use Mac's at home, PC's at work and I own AAPL and MSFT and RIM and ...... Investing is about using money to make money, personal emotional bias has no room in it. Emotion just cloud your thinking process, skew your decisions and could at times lead to losses.

Good luck!




On May 12 08:48 PM SharonW wrote:

> Yeah, right, Ayuh. I don't base my investments on Bono whims, but
> facts. It's a known fact that AT&T's network sucks nickels.
> AT&T just gave the boot to using the Slingbox app on their 3G
> (Wifi hotspots only) while other phones on other networks have no
> problem running it. Bandwidth issues, hmmm?
>
> It's also a well-known fact that the iPhone won't multitask due to
> power issues for its non-replaceable battery. (Oh, and speaking
> of which, another Pre plus...a replaceable battery). And, BTW, if
> iPhone 3.0 rumors are true, there's nothing particularly new and
> inspiring coming out from them in June. Just a yawning reiteration
> of the old iPhone with a tad more power and compass living on the
> same, sleepy, barely 3G network. Gee, maybe you'll even get a landscape
> virtual keyboard that's equally slow to use. Think they'll finally
> get that cut-and-paste thingie down yet?
>
> Honey, I don't need no stinkin' stops. :D

May 12 09:50 PM

[neutrino23:]

What if an asteroid falls on Palm headquarters? Would that improve Nokia sales? What if three comets hit the earth simultaneously and land on Palm, RIMM and Nokia headquarters? Would that be good for Apple? What if, what if, what if. Sheesh.

By talking about Apple selling as a fad or trend you display your lack of understanding of this market. You can like Apple or not but at least understand their strengths and weaknesses properly. The same goes for RIMM and Nokia and Android.

Personally, I think Pre is in an extremely difficult position. Pre might be a good phone. The problem is it has to be an extraordinarily good phone to overcome the lead established by RIMM and Apple. If they had come out with this three years ago they would have walked away with the market. Now they are an also ran.

Yes, they can quickly get some share from the technically oriented people who follow this market, but it doesn't sound like Pre will add a must have feature not offered by RIMM or Apple. This is not a knock on Palm, it is just how it is.

I recall having this discussion with a broker promoting the stock of a company pushing a technology to compete with hard disk drives. My point was that it would have to be hugely faster/cheaper/bigger than hard drives in order to gain a foothold. Just like magnetic bubble memory before that. Bubble memory was interesting but could never develop fast enough to catch up to hard drives so they ran out of development money before the hard drive developers ran out of money. Apple has almost $30B in reserves. If they decide there is something missing from the iPhone that is needed to keep market share you better believe it will appear very quickly.

I think Palm will make a short term splash then disappear from the headlines. Apple/RIMM will capture most of the headlines. What is Palm going to do? Build up several hundred stores in malls across the US where trained technicians can help people with questions? Build a huge on line music and video store like iTMS? Get thousands of developers to write tens of thousands of apps for the Pre? Develop a simple way for developers to get paid for developing apps? Find a way for the Pre to synchronize with your iTunes collection on your computer? Somehow get the whole country talking about Palm so that when they think touchscreen phone they think Pre and not iPhone?

Perhaps I don't know enough about Pre (mea culpa), but I think they should have gone after a specific niche rather than the general market or in addition to the general market. For example, they might have worked out a scheme to develop the digital hospital. EMTs in the ambulance could forward diagnostic information to the hospital. Doctors and nurses and other techs would receive this on their phones. Each would begin the necessary preparations and would send updates about their progress to the others. Once the patient arrives information about medications, treatments and diet would skip from phone to phone so everyone is always up to date. For all I know something like this exists. But if Palm did something like this, perhaps in another field, they'd have a secure toe-hold from which to expand. As it is they seem very exposed to intense competition.

May 12 11:43 PM

[JamesApple:]

The answer is simple: Pre has absolutely nothing over iPhone in the public mind. But since Pre is considered another iPhone imitator like the Storm, people would pit the Pre head on with the Storm. My feeling is Pre would lure at least 50 to 80 percent of Storm customers to jump ship to the Pre with raw sex appeal. Perhaps some iPhone customers would switch to Pre but that would be no more than 3% maximum. When the unanounced new iPhone reaches market by this summer, my feeling tells me that iPhone will capture about 50 to 55% of the total market, depending on the success of iPhone sales in China which would another 5 to 7% to iPhone's total market share. I had correctly predicted the Windows dominance of the PC market before and I am seeing a similar dominance by iPhone.

May 13 12:51 AM

[SharonW:]

"Until someone can talk about the SDK and what developers can and cannot do on the Pre, we can say nothing about what sort of users will find Pre useful. Is Pre targeting management and integration of "life data" such as meetings, contacts, appointments, emails, voice mails and so on? Like the earlier Palm product? Is Pre into sophisticated games? business applications? Video editing? What?

As for "multi-tasking", it is a silly focus. Given Pre is a handheld device likely with limited RAM and favors lightweight threading models, can I write a resource-intensive application? How will my application impact other applications if I force intensive page-swapping? What is the point of multi-tasking if one poorly-behaving application slows down all other applications? Do we all know WHAT sort of "multi-tasking" we are talking about yet?"

Wow! So many questions, so little time. I know the product. I don't invest in something without reading just about everything associated with it. Like I said I don't invest on Bono whims regardless of who you addressing this post to, I'd like to answer.

Regarding your music question, the Pre will ship with the Pandora app for starters. However, Amazon for MP3 is, of course, available and not as constrained as iTunes. Heck, every MP3 on your computer is available to the Pre as well.

As for your "life integration" issues, this is exactly what I was talking about with sychronicity. YES, it will draw from all of your various sources as I listed above and integrate them, please see my other posts if you haven't. No other cell phone does this. Contact information, calendars, you name it. If you have multiple email contacts for one person, you'll find them all under their name. It will pull everything from your computer or the net.

As for the importance of multi-tasking, perhaps you should see a demonstration. Click Meet the Pre:

www.palm.com/us/produc.../

That's pretty much functioning like a computer where you have several windows open and your IM and email at the same time, but with everything completely integrated. Moreover, when you get a notification of an incoming email you don't have to exit whatever you're doing to read it, etc.

The "card" system employed by Palm to handle multiple tasks has shown it to do so with aplomb. Because of the structure behind it, nothing has proven to intensive to suck life out of other apps or crash the phone. In fact, app developers appear to be in love with the simple and standard Web development tools such as CSS, JavaScript, and HTML that run on a version of the Webkit engine.

Here:
Developers: Palm's webOS Is The Bomb

www.informationweek.co...;jsessionid=31WSI0NGHH...

In addition, it will do Adobe pdfs, Flash will be coming later this year, Docs to Go, Office 2007.

So check out some of the resources I've offered and see for yourself. It's really not hard to get information on this phone. A simple Google News search for Palm Pre will answer every question.



On May 12 09:14 PM SiliconValleyJoe wrote:

> It is easy to confuse business vs. technical details vs. end user
> experience.
>
> A user does not care about technical details. A user wants a phone
> that works 100% of the time, is clearly audible, has at least a full
> day's worth of battery charge for all that one wants to do and the
> device is capable of doing everything one wants to do such as playing
> games, listening to music, browse the web, use certain apps, take
> a few pictures or video and send a few MMS messages. A device that
> can do all these will certainly sell itself. So is anyone here saying
> that Pre overshadows the Berries and iPhone in all these areas, in
> every way? I doubt it. Pre is a solid offering with some nice features
> but that is it.
>
> Technically speaking, WebOS is no different than other UN*X-flavor
> OS. Palm did not run off to build a brand new OS from scratch. So
> toss the technically "superior" claim out the window. The real difference
> will be in how the WebOS performs its tasks and the Pre SDK. Until
> someone can say something about the WebOS architecture, performance
> characteristics and hardware requirements, all the back and forth
> about "multi-tasking" is foolish. All UN*X-flavor OS already does
> multi-tasking, and that capability dates back to the 70's. Until
> someone can talk about the SDK and what developers can and cannot
> do on the Pre, we can say nothing about what sort of users will find
> Pre useful. Is Pre targeting management and integration of "life
> data" such as meetings, contacts, appointments, emails, voice mails
> and so on? Like the earlier Palm product? Is Pre into sophisticated
> games? business applications? Video editing? What?
>
> As for "multi-tasking", it is a silly focus. Given Pre is a handheld
> device likely with limited RAM and favors lightweight threading models,
> can I write a resource-intensive application? How will my application
> impact other applications if I force intensive page-swapping? What
> is the point of multi-tasking if one poorly-behaving application
> slows down all other applications? Do we all know WHAT sort of "multi-tasking"
> we are talking about yet?
>
> Business wise, if all the doom and gloom is somewhat true of Palm
> then Palm is almost like a new but publicly traded Silicon Valley
> "start-up". Palm's VC-like investors probably has some sort of trigger.
> If Pre sells X-number of units within a certain amount of time, even
> without significant profit, these investors may consider putting
> in more case to keep the ball rolling because they can smell a profit
> looming. If Pre is slightly below investor (not public) expectation,
> may be there will be some hard negotiation for more shares, for more
> investors to buy in or for some changes before they sink in more
> cash. If Pre sales fall in the "red" zone, the investors may panic
> and start looking for merger propositions. This is where Palm seems
> to be at. So Pre has to sell like hot cakes right off the bat. There
> is NOTHING like a hot-selling product to put a big smile on the faces
> of VC's.
>
> As for public investors, you best know what to expect. Unlike those
> "VC's" who meet with the board (or sit on them) and the CEO, the
> VP, the architects and program managers, you have no insider information.
> Your Palm stock is subject to market turbulence. The market is very
> ignorant of these nitty gritty details. You may see share price sink
> like a rock because media reports that Pre is not selling well while
> internally, the VC's are quite happy with the sales. You may see
> share price rocket upward because of media rumor about new Pre-mini
> or Pre selling 10 million units or iPhone is dead while internally,
> everyone is worried.
>
> So before you sink money into Palm at this stage, be sure you really
> understand the technology, the product plan and the market in which
> Palm wants to play. It is folly to just focus on multi-tasking as
> a panacea or as an ultimate "weapon".
>
> Good luck to you all!
>
>
>
>
>

May 13 01:18 AM

[SharonW:]

> Battery life? Switchable battery is good. I with iPhone has it. On
> the other hand, our iPhones work just fine all day, no complaints.
> My children have theirs and no complaints. May be heavy users care
> a lot more than normal users? What percentage are heavy vs normal
> users?

Switchable? No I said replaceable. It's been my understanding that you can't replace the iPhone battery. Has that changed? When your battery completely dies, i.e. will no longer charge, so goes your iPhone from what I've read.

And, in actuality, I have no iPhone biases. I would have loved one if they had launched on Sprint. I hate both Verizon and AT&T corporate cultures as they relate to their cell phone users, and AT&T 3G, once again, really does suck by comparison. Perhaps you should try such a comparison. But I do keep up on as much news for the competition as I do for the investment. It really doesn't sound like anything earth-shattering is forthcoming for iPhone 3.0.

P.S. I don't think they're marketing this as a kid's phone although I'm sure kids would enjoy it just as much if not more than the iPhone, except for the possible cool, trendy factor of Apple. I think this is what the author was referring to with regards to the Paris Hilton reference. But kids are very into multi-tasking and would easily enjoy pulling and integrating contacts from Facebook with their Twitter and their Gmail contacts or whatever. Then again, it might just become the new cool, and the iPhone yesterday's news.


On May 12 09:50 PM SiliconValleyJoe wrote:

> Actually, cut-and-paste finally arrives in 3.0.
>
> Landscape virtual KB is for all applications. Some like it, some
> do not. It sells millions, so many must be able to live with it.
> My children can :-).
>
> Multi-tasking? A focus that is overblown. For an investor, if you
> focus only on multi-tasking, then you are risking a lot. Best learn
> what multi-tasking is and why it may not be as big a deal as you
> think.
>
> Battery life? Switchable battery is good. I with iPhone has it. On
> the other hand, our iPhones work just fine all day, no complaints.
> My children have theirs and no complaints. May be heavy users care
> a lot more than normal users? What percentage are heavy vs normal
> users?
>
> Nothing inspiring about iPhone 3.0? Sounds like you are letting personal
> bias taint your investor's "objectivity"? I use Mac's at home, PC's
> at work and I own AAPL and MSFT and RIM and ...... Investing is about
> using money to make money, personal emotional bias has no room in
> it. Emotion just cloud your thinking process, skew your decisions
> and could at times lead to losses.
>
> Good luck!
>
>

May 13 01:41 AM

[brewer:]

"As for your "life integration" issues, this is exactly what I was talking about with sychronicity. YES, it will draw from all of your various sources as I listed above and integrate them, please see my other posts if you haven't. No other cell phone does this. Contact information, calendars, you name it. If you have multiple email contacts for one person, you'll find them all under their name. It will pull everything from your computer or the net."

Uh, the iPod does a far better job of this than the pre will. Have you never used an iPhone, or what?

It's simple to change the iPhone or iPod battery. I have done it myself on older iPods. Your watch has a non-replaceable battery as well. But you go to the store and they change it, right?

The battery can be changed, there is just no door to fall off as there is on the pre. You just have to not be all thumbs to change the iPhone battery. Most people don't do the simplest things for themselves, like change the oil in their cars. iPhone is for this majority. Have it done at the Apple store ($59) if you can't manage changing your own battery and if you actually have the device long enough to need a new battery. It lasts for years, and by that time most people want to upgrade to the next model anyway. It's a throwaway culture, but you can still change your own iPhone battery if you are any good with your hands, etc...

May 13 09:35 AM

[marv08:]

On May 13 01:41 AM SharonW wrote:

> > Switchable? No I said replaceable. It's been my understanding that you can't replace the iPhone battery. Has that changed? When your battery completely dies, i.e. will no longer charge, so goes your iPhone from what I've read.

This is just wrong. You can have the battery replaced (Apple offers a replacement program), and all official iPhone resellers will also offer to rent you a spare phone to cover that period (normally 3 days max.). If your iPhone is from "unofficial" sources (and/or not covered by warranty or AppleCare) then there are several "do-it-yourself" kits available starting at 25 bucks. DIY does require a tiny bit of soldering though – I am no technician at all and I need maybe 15 minutes to do it. So, you can either pay Apple USD 80 and have it done, or save a lot and do it yourself. There is no need to throw away the device once the battery is dead.

May 13 10:32 AM

[Aryamehr:]

According to news reports today from Clearwire (CLWR), a 51% subsidary of Sprint, Sprint will have access to over 80 markets that are 4G compatible by the end of 2010. And yes the Palm Pre will be 4G compatible regardless of what the iPhone folks spin on these blogs. Now let us assume that the iPhone with ATT's 2.5 to 3G duo are equal with the Pre and Sprint's 3G duo, what are you going to do knowing that the iPhone will not be able to perform on a ubiquitous 4G platform for at least 2-3 more years. Notwithstanding the aforementioned we all know, based on the cognoscente not average consumers, that the Pre is a devise that 'runs rings around the iPhone 3G' and this is not hyperbole. Now let us see what Apple has in store for us in June. According to the pundits it doesn't seem to be anything significant.

IMHO, Palm is going to do well regardless of what Apple does with its iPhone. Palm will not kill the iPhone, however Palm will emerge as Apple's greatest rival, spuring on an interesting rivalry that can only benefit consumers. I can't wait to see the heavy weight contest in the coming weeks.

Believe me the Pre is going to shock you all on how well it sells and by God when it is coupled on a 4G network it will astound you.

May 13 11:41 AM

[mollytjm:]

It won't matter if the Pre has some upgraded features from the iPhone...because that will only be true for about a minute. What Apple does best is innovate..fast. i don't know how you can define Apple as a trend. they make the top rated, most reliable products around. It's not a one-trick pony... like Palm. and i seem to think Paris Hilton uses a Blackberry... and how can it matter anyway. I'd rather choose a product based on something (or some one!) intelligent.

May 13 12:07 PM

[SharonW:]

iPod?!?! Who the heck talks on an iPod? You're comparing apples to oranges.


On May 13 09:35 AM brewer wrote:

> "As for your "life integration" issues, this is exactly what I was
> talking about with sychronicity. YES, it will draw from all of your
> various sources as I listed above and integrate them, please see
> my other posts if you haven't. No other cell phone does this. Contact
> information, calendars, you name it. If you have multiple email contacts
> for one person, you'll find them all under their name. It will pull
> everything from your computer or the net."
>
> Uh, the iPod does a far better job of this than the pre will. Have
> you never used an iPhone, or what?
>
> It's simple to change the iPhone or iPod battery. I have done it
> myself on older iPods. Your watch has a non-replaceable battery as
> well. But you go to the store and they change it, right?
>
> The battery can be changed, there is just no door to fall off as
> there is on the pre. You just have to not be all thumbs to change
> the iPhone battery. Most people don't do the simplest things for
> themselves, like change the oil in their cars. iPhone is for this
> majority. Have it done at the Apple store ($59) if you can't manage
> changing your own battery and if you actually have the device long
> enough to need a new battery. It lasts for years, and by that time
> most people want to upgrade to the next model anyway. It's a throwaway
> culture, but you can still change your own iPhone battery if you
> are any good with your hands, etc...
>
>

May 13 01:30 PM

[SharonW:]

Well then, I stand corrected. Nonetheless, a replacement program where I have to pay Apple $80 to replace my battery and pay to rent another phone in the meantime seems outrageous and I'm not about to purchase sodering equipment and take up sodering LOL (I'm sorry that's just plain funny) to do what should be a simple battery replacement.

And while Apple fans may constantly buy the next newest iPhones, I don't think you'll find a majority of people getting a new one every year, especially not in this economy, and especially not without the heavy subsidies generally only reserved for a 2-year contract renewal or becoming a new customer.

Listen, dudes, the iPhone is a cool phone, but that doesn't mean it's the end of the story, be-all-end-all without any flaws. There's room for improvement and from what I've seen the Pre is the improvement. Let's not forget that PALM was once the leader in this area back when Apple was still trying to cling to a vanishing slice of the computer pie. Leaders come and go and sometimes they rise from the dead.


On May 13 10:32 AM marv08 wrote:

> On May 13 01:41 AM SharonW wrote:

May 13 01:43 PM

[jmmx:]

@CGP
You say: "iPhans, why are you so defensive when it comes to Pre comparisons? Ecosystems are certainly valuable and desirable but don't oversell it, ..."

I do not know if you were referring to me or not. I do not see any of my posts as being defensive, but you did mention both eco-system which is something I brought up. I thought I was just bringing up some possible issues that any investor should want to consider. It seems to me that some of the Pre fans were the ones getting defensive. (But perhaps I AM getting so myself here ;) )

Like I said before, it seems like Pre is going to be a great phone, with perhaps some improvements on the iPhone. But still, even if everyone should agree (which could never happen, not everyone) that the Pre was the best in class, it would still not change one simple fact. Will the Pre so vastly superior in so many ways that it will convince millions of people to switch?

I think I am just being realistic to state that this is at best problematic. I am not defending iPhone's non-swappable battery, or feature X or Y or Z. I am only suggesting that you people investing should evaluate the risks that not everybody in the world will see the Pre as the so vastly superior device.

Finally - on ATT - no matter how YOU feel about it SharonW - millions of people are happy enough with it.

Once again - I wish Palm well. But I do not hold a lot of hope for them.

Good luck! Prove me wrong! (It will not be the first time.)

May 13 05:03 PM

[mrmillergd:]

PALM is the ultimate short. A company on the verge of BK 6 months ago has run up because of unrealistic expectations. Look, the phone could be great but there just won't be that much of a market for it as anyone who needed a smartphone ditched Sprint and went to iPhone/AT&T or BBerry/Verizon. Who's going to need this phone? What is it going to do that is revolutionary? Everything laid out so far seem to be enhancements at most.

May 13 06:29 PM

[CaliAgent415:]

"palm pre is less likely to be seen next to someones ear as it does have Bluetooth 2.1 and AD2P coding which allows music to stream wirelessly through a Bluetooth headset and headphones"

Does anyone know if navigation will work with this? I for some dumb @$$ reason traded my 755 in for the samsung instict. Not one of my smartest moves, did no research and went off hype. I think it would be kick @$$ if you can have your navigation "voice" instructions stream wirelessly to a Bluetooth headset. Also does anyone know if the background (wallpaper I guess you can say) can be customized? Regardless I will be getting a Pre.

May 13 08:53 PM

[CGP:]

SV Joe <<Technically speaking, WebOS is no different than other UN*X-flavor OS. Palm did not run off to build a brand new OS from scratch.>>
- From what I understand WebOS was built from scratch and meant to run on a mobile processor (TI ARM) vs. a port from a desktop OS (Apple?)


<>
- Maybe, but as a practical matter when was multi-task actually useful for average users on PC's? On a smartphone I just want to have several apps open w\minimal fuss, decision trees
<<Do we all know WHAT sort of "multi-tasking" we are talking about yet?>>
- For me maybe email, web browser, contacts, Google maps, social networking, voice simultaneously, nothing complicated, certainly not SETI

<<Until someone can talk about the SDK and what developers can and cannot do on the Pre, we can say nothing about what sort of users will find Pre useful. Is Pre targeting management and integration of "life data" such as meetings, contacts, appointments, emails, voice mails and so on? Like the earlier Palm product? Is Pre into sophisticated games? business applications? Video editing? What?>>
- If they deliver what they've demoed I believe they've already made that statement, so yes "life data" is a target (my thinking is enhanced PDA e.g. PDA + user friendly mobile web). They've said they developed WebOS with the thinking that they could be succesful without having to take significant share from Apple or RIMM, their niche is between the two and encompasses pre-Treo Palm users. To me, sophisticated games & video editing belong on a desktop, when you can devote significant time - 90% of mobile is done when you have a few minutes on the go.

<<Business wise, if all the doom and gloom is somewhat true of Palm then Palm is almost like a new but publicly traded Silicon Valley "start-up".>>
- Roger McNamee is the "name" VC behind Elevation. He's said his interest now is in reviving tarnished brands. Palm is a "reset start-up", they had a major brand which if handled correctly still can be valuable (didn't a guy named Jobs do something like that?). Who knows, maybe his Palm retracted statements might have been a cheap way to keep Palm in the news.

neutrino 23 <<Yes, they can quickly get some share from the technically oriented people who follow this market, but it doesn't sound like Pre will add a must have feature not offered by RIMM or Apple. This is not a knock on Palm, it is just how it>>
- I think you're missing the point, it's not the technorati they're targeting. WebOS' app/feature/niche is simplicity and operability, iPhone is the "cool" whiz bang but complicated gadget to those not already using it (do I need to navigate thousands of apps? I just need core apps out of the box and maybe I'll add more later when I have time)

<<Somehow get the whole country talking about Palm so that when they think touchscreen phone they think Pre and not iPhone?>>
- I think they already are, look at the posts on this article and around the web. iPhone users in the media are talking about switching - see G4
www.g4tv.com/ces2009/v...

jmmx - didn't mean to pigeonhole you as an iPhan, it's just they keep pounding the table about how their ecosystem will suck out all the air and not allow anyone else to breathe
btw I don't think Pre has to get everybody to switch from iPhone/RIMM, I think smartphones are now a little less than 30% of the mobile market in the US (not to mention worlwide), that leaves a lot of room for someone else to get a piece of the pie w\o taking anyone else's (just replacing basically voice only devices)

mrmillergd <<there just won't be that much of a market for it as anyone who needed a smartphone>>
- you seem to think smartphones are a mature, defined, limited market with no growth prospects, is it? Were cars (GM & Ford) in the 50's?

For those non-Palm investors doubting Palm I suggest you widen your scope a little more before you make definitive statements. Maybe some of you have a point, Palm is at the eleventh hour and that does worry me as they seem to be playing chicken now but again I came into this wondering why would a VC sink an extra $100m into dead cat Palm last Dec; then came CES and all the other stuff you can find on the internet...

May 13 10:49 PM

[jmmx:]

@CGP You say: "btw I don't think Pre has to get everybody to switch from iPhone/RIMM, I think smartphones are now a little less than 30% of the mobile market in the US (not to mention worlwide), that leaves a lot of room for someone else to get a piece of the pie w\o taking anyone else's (just replacing basically voice only devices)"

You do have a point there. And like I said - good luck. I hope it does well.

May 14 02:23 AM

[Rick Krementz:]

As a Palm user for years (I think I have had three), I can't wait for a new PDA to come out - preferably from Google. Palm's total lack of innovation, updates, integration with other apps (try synching with Google address book or calendar) is really frustrating. I am still with Palm only because of lock-in (2 year contracts, changing calendars, etc.)

Changing the company culture of lethargy and sloth to HOT is not going to happen just because they have a new model out. Palm will be gone before 2010.

It is sad. They used to be the leaders...

May 14 08:38 AM

[Marco Hickey:]

www.youtube.com/watch?...

I had to do it... ;-0

May 14 10:33 PM

[H.J. Huneycutt:]

PALM is overpriced right now even if the Pre is a success. At the current price, PALM needs to earn at least twice much as they did in their best years during the boom earlier this decade. None of the PALM buyers seem to be analyzing the financials very much, though.

May 15 08:32 AM

[CGP:]

Great find Marco.

Valuing Palm, the $64k question, I've been a little surprised at how strong Palm's price has held up these past few months (momentum play?). How do you do fundamental analysis on this co. w\o a lot history to go by? OK, they've f'ed up in the past but the story has changed somewhat - basically a new management team (Elevation VC's) and new IP, both intangibles, how do you value that reliably? Don't forget the variable - buyout.

Sorry for the Apple comparison, but would you have invested in Apple in the early iPod days based on fundamentals? Would a 1,000 multiple have made sense? There are some parallels and maybe that's why everybody gets so worked up

May 17 11:48 AM