Sirius XM: Long Term Gain Will Follow Short Term Pain 39 comments
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Sometimes I think that there are media elements at work that exist for the sole purpose of creating fear and doubt among Sirius XM (SIRI) investors and consumers alike. This fear tactic works in two ways. It first creates a negative sentiment in persons invested in the company. This negative sentiment grows like a cancer as more and more individual investors take losses on the equity, and simultaneously causes these now former investors to develop a dislike of the company's products and services.
The second function of these negative media attacks is to create doubt regarding Sirius XM's future viability. In doing this, they dissuade would-be consumers from making the required initial hardware investment and becoming long term subscribers.
My case in point would be the negative media attack on Sirius XM since last Thursday. Article after article has been written regarding the loss of subscribers reported by Sirius XM. They use headlines of General Motors (GM) and Chrysler bankruptcies as ammunition against Sirius XM's future growth.
Sirius XM had already responded to these attacks before they had begun, yet few people have cared enough to pay attention to the brilliant way in which the company has prepared itself going forward. I am again referring to the recent conference call in which the company reported promotional and self-paying subscribers separately. This is a completely new concept as the company had never done this before, yet the benefits are many.
The recently released 10Q reports that year over year self paying subscribers increased from 14,313,406 subscribers to 15,436,410! This represents a gain of nearly 1.1 million subscribers who have chosen to pay for Satellite Radio and the programming it offers in the last 12 months. The drop in year-over-year subscribers occurred only in promotional subscriptions. Sirius XM had previously counted any paid subscription as a subscriber, even if that payment was part of a free OEM trial program.
Despite the fear-mongering of GM and Chrysler bankruptcies as well as weak auto sales news, Sirius XM is positioned to eliminate promotional subscriber reporting altogether, if it becomes necessary based on market conditions. Sirius XM appears to now be divesting itself of its OEM dependence by returning consumer and investor focus to the much more important, self paid subscriber number.
Position: Long SIRI
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On May 14 11:48 AM j_remington wrote:
> Unfortunately the debt is a huge reason for shareholders to be unable
> to reap benefits.
When the economy resumes growth, I believe this stock will rise and we "longs" will be able to take profits. That's the whole idea isn't it?
If you don't like the stock,CEO, or offerings, then don't buy it and don't worry about why I (as in longs) am.
On May 14 11:06 AM BChargers wrote:
>
On May 14 01:42 PM connorport wrote:
>
On May 14 11:06 AM BChargers wrote:
>
Weren't you never going to respond to him again about 25 times now?
LMAO@U
On May 14 01:42 PM connorport wrote:
> Yet still you clowns sit here blogging negativity with no real numbers
> or true statements to back up your bashing. Maybe try this. Take
> your own advise and run as far from here as you can.
On May 14 11:06 AM BChargers wrote:
>
That should be about your 26th time responding to BChargers AFTER you posted here 5 times that you would never respond to him. Hows that working out for ya? LMAO
On May 14 03:30 PM Biff Jones wrote:
> Just like 5 or 6 million people I suscribed to Sirius because of
> Howard Stern, not so much because his show is great, but because
> there is nothing on terrestial radio. Quite frankly the Stern show
> is nowhere near as good as it once was, but it is still better than
> anything else on free radio. There seems to be much waste at Sirius,
> whether its bad management or bad planning I don't know, but with
> almost 19 million suscribers things should have turned around by
> now.
Hiring Howard Stern WAS bad management / too much waste.
Also I'd like to say Howard Stern says he brought 5-6 million listeners. That doesn't mean that he has that many listeners.
He Doesn't
Howard Stern jumped the shark 20 years ago.
I like Coast to Coast, Dave Ramsey, Clark Howard, those car talk guys, and home fix it shows. All are on free terrestrial radio.
Satellite radio is a complete failure. That is for everyone except
Mel Karmazin and Scott Greinstiens friends who get paid insane amounts for shows that no one listens to .
Siri = garbage
On May 14 03:50 PM Randall Pink Floyd wrote:
> You idiots......... keep dreaming the dream. Siri to .25 by next
> week and then i might scoop up another 100k shares only to dump that
> crap after the iphone app drops. Now that's the ONLY way to make
> any cash from this SH** company.
>
>
> Siri = garbage
193 Comments
Follow
OK, We will all see if i'm "LUCKY" AGAIN this week. My predictions:
Monday - drop .04c
Tue - drop .03
Wed - drop .03
Thurs - up .02
Friday to end week down to .30
That's my take for this week.
We will see,
JAY BOY BILLY
May 10 09:33 PM |Report abuse| Link | Reply
00
There is no longer a need to keep score. You have been wrong every day, this proves to most here your one right guess was just that. Hope your mom lets you have your computer back so you can continue to show us how smart you are in the future.
I will admit we are having a down week though. Consolidation before the next leg up. We are up 700% from the low and retraced a little more than 40% from this years high. Soon we start higher again.
On May 14 04:27 PM burnout wrote:
> wholesalecd
> 193 Comments
>
> Follow
> OK, We will all see if i'm "LUCKY" AGAIN this week. My predictions:
>
>
> Monday - drop .04c
>
> Tue - drop .03
>
> Wed - drop .03
>
> Thurs - up .02
>
> Friday to end week down to .30
>
> That's my take for this week.
>
> We will see,
>
> JAY BOY BILLY
> May 10 09:33 PM |Report abuse| Link | Reply
> 00
>
> There is no longer a need to keep score. You have been wrong every
> day, this proves to most here your one right guess was just that.
> Hope your mom lets you have your computer back so you can continue
> to show us how smart you are in the future.
> I will admit we are having a down week though. Consolidation before
> the next leg up. We are up 700% from the low and retraced a little
> more than 40% from this years high. Soon we start higher again.
it is all they have been doing for years.
Perfect example of this article. I know .....they were on the now
defunct msg board on AOL all the time. Talk about nothing better to do.
On May 14 01:42 PM connorport wrote:
> Yet still you clowns sit here blogging negativity with no real numbers
> or true statements to back up your bashing. Maybe try this. Take
> your own advise and run as far from here as you can.
other disguised version of censorship on Public Radio, I almost
hope they do- Sirius will be a Home Run.....when the Right Wing
Talk shows mutiny and go primarily with Satellite Radio....may be
dreaming....but they way these bums are running the country anything
could happen.....
On May 14 04:50 PM mlr wrote:
> BChargers and Floorhomo are probably the same people and probably
> paid to do it by shorters or are shorters themselves .......
> it is all they have been doing for years.
> Perfect example of this article. I know .....they were on the now
>
> defunct msg board on AOL all the time. Talk about nothing better
> to do.
Transparent. . . .
Do you smell something funny?
I am no market guru or genius.
SIRI will eventually rocket up. But its time had not come. Right now and for the foreseeable future of 6 to 8 months SIRI service is viewed as discretionary by the general consumer and as such, there would be an unlikely spectacular rise in its subscription base.
It will, however, go up dramatically once the recovery is firmly underway. The bottom line? It is a good buy for the long term, not for short trading at this time