Sentiment for Apple Increasing but Palm, Nokia Gaining Ground

Piqqem Sentiment for Apple (AAPL) increased overall by 6.5% since the last report on March 24, 2009 and has been rebounding for the past month. The eastern half of the country appears to moving strongly upward in sentiment for Apple as does software engineers, women and managers. Apple sentiment has not recovered from a high of 2.96 (on a scale of 0-to-4) in February three months ago. Apple sentiment declines have been less pronounced than those of other PC-related companies.

In the smart phone category, competitors Palm (PALM) and Nokia (NOK) have actually outpaced Apple with significant sentiment increases as compared to Apple’s decrease over that period.

That said, both were starting from a much lower sentiment base and neither has crossed into positive sentiment territory above the 2.5 mark. In contrast, Apple has never fallen below 2.5 and has retained consistently more positive aggregate sentiment ratings than peers in both groups. That appears to be continuing, in light of the recent upswing in Apple sentiment.

Sub-Crowd Breakdown of Apple Piqqem Sentiment

In the age-specific sub-crowds, sentiment increased most strongly among 18-to-29 year olds (5.5%) and 44-to-59 year olds (13%). In the regional sub-crowds, sentiment increased markedly in the Northeast (18.5%), the Midwest (16.5%) and the South (12%) but less so in the West (4%) where Piqqem has the largest user-base.

Broken down by profession, sub-crowd sentiments increased the most for management (10%) and software engineers and financials professionals (4.5% for each group) while declining for salespeople (-7.5%) and students (-6%). Curiously, Apple sentiment optimists grew more pessimistic in terms of Piqqem Sentiment (-16.5%) and pessimists grew more optimistic (25%). Women’s sentiment for Apple improved by a dramatic 54.5% (women represent a minority sub-set of users so have less impact on overall sentiment swings.

Piqqem Sentiment: Apple vs. PC Related Companies

User sentiment on Apple’s future share price movements has remained positive above the 1.5-2.5 band that marks neutral sentiment. However, sentiment has trended downwards in aggregate over the three-month period shown here. Sentiment has begun to track upwards again in the past month, a movement that is likely due to Apple’s strong first quarter earnings report for 2009 and to consistent rumors about the release of a new iPhone and new computing device likely to come this June at Apple’s World Wide Developers Conference.

Apple sentiment compares favorably to sentiments for other PC related companies, Dell (DELL), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), and Microsoft (MSFT). During that same period Piqqem Sentiment fell by 19.5% for Microsoft, by 10% for HP, and by 20.5% for Dell. (HP’s earnings are largely driven by the enterprise and printing side of business so the comparison is not pure in terms of business lines).

In contrast, Apple sentiment fell by only 9%, more comparable to that of HP, a company that is perceived to have excellent management and strategy under CEO Mark Hurd.

Piqqem Sentiment : Apple vs. Smartphone Makers

Sentiment for Apple shares remains significantly higher than sentiment for competing smartphone makers. Apple’s Piqqem Sentiment is 2.78, above the 1.5-to-2.5 neutral sentiment band. Nokia’s (NOK) sentiment is 2.53, Palm’s (PALM) sentiment is 1.71, and Research in Motion’s (RIMM) sentiment is 2.22. However, Apple’s trendline is showing negative, down 9% in the past three months.

In comparison, the sentiment trendline for Nokia is up 15% over that period and the sentiment trendline for Palm is up 32% during that period. Of the quartet, only RIM is showing more significant sentiment erosion with a decline of 16.5%.

That said, Apple’s sentiment graph has rebounded off bottoms near the 2.6 level and have begun recovering in the past month as rumors about Steve Job’s departure have been dispelled and hope for new devices in June, paired with the release of a new software platform for the iPhone, have given Apple sentiments a lift.

Comments

[JamesApple:]

The real players are marching in to crush Rim.

Rim RIP in less than 4 years.

May 14 05:43 PM

[Michael McD...:]

Once you can tether your computer to iPhone it will become even more popular with small business users like myself.

After years of being tied to land lines, file cabinets and desktop computers the possibility of true paperless office and complete mobility is closer than ever.

I've used a Fujitsu document scanner to replace my file cabinets and a MacBook to replace my aging IBM ThinkPad (which served a long and useful/reliable life), now either a MiFi (tinyurl.com/om65xn) or tethering an iPhone will be just the ticket.

Apple stock will drop in June/July when Jobs announces he's stepping down as CEO but will be on the board, but unlike MS (Ballmer) the burden won't rest on one person's shoulders at AAPL.

May 17 02:05 AM