Could This Crisis Have a Middle East Peace Dividend?

A presentation from Citi (C) to its private banking clients in the UAE yesterday highlighted the possibility that President Obama’s peace mission in the Middle East could bring a new era of peace and prosperity to the region.

This proposal will be ridiculed by older hands with longer memories. But perhaps that is the point. The Obama administration represents the hopes of a new generation.

The obvious parallel is Northern Ireland and Tony Blair. Before the charismatic Mr Blair became prime minister the thought of talks with the Irish Republican Army terrorists was unthinkable. Yet his government not only put peace on the table but turned it into a reality.

Irish parallel

The conflict in Northern Ireland was even older than the traumas regarding the creation of Israel and the ejection of many of the original inhabitants. And few who dealt with the Irish factions would deny that their intransigence and hatred fell far short of anything found in the modern Middle East.

Yesterday’s meeting between President Obama and Israel’s new prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu was hopeful, with both politicians far too skillful to show the slightest public loss of face. We can only guess at their true discussions of more than two hours behind closed doors.

But it appears that Mr Netanyahu has gone along with US plans to try a serious attempt at engaging Iran in a dialogue on its nuclear program, at least until the end of this year. There was no commitment, however, to ceasing the construction of West Bank settlements or embracing a two-state solution.

The world will have to wait for President Obama’s visit to Cairo next month for a more definitive statement on his administration’s policy. But as Citi managing director of economic and political strategies, Tina Fordham told a client briefing in Dubai, ‘the economic crisis might actually help them to reach a political solution on this geopolitical issue’.

Economic crisis

Her argument is that all regional nations, including Israel, are reeling from the impact of the global economic crisis, and one way to significantly boost regional economic growth would be a peace settlement.

It is true that with a comprehensive peace treaty in place the gates would be open for a flood of inward investment and development activity. But this is not a new observation, and the search for a peace dividend has been extremely elusive in the Middle East.

But President Obama strides the world with considerable political capital right now, and that could indeed be gainfully invested in a peace dividend.

Comments

[Dean M:]

All peace efforts end in heartache. I guess each american president needs to learn that the hard way.

May 19 11:39 AM

[waf76:]

Israel doesnt want a sovereign Palestine next to it. Based on facts on the ground a two state solution is just talk. There are way too many settlements, highways, and walls built that the land is effectively interconnected with no borders. This would be more complicated than unwinding CDS. An apartheid type state similar to South Africa is what's in store. Too bad we let it get past the point of no return as there really is no acceptable solution to either party.

May 19 03:26 PM

[Socialism c...:]

"This proposal will be ridiculed by older hands with longer memories. But perhaps that is the point. The Obama administration represents the hopes of a new generation."

Translated: Obama represents the ability to snow-job those young and dumb enough to not see through his mantras of socialist demagoguery, which preaches the possibility of utopian world peace and plenty via redistributionism, and settlement of arguments by finding common ground through the "opening of hearts and minds", rather than the seeking of truth and justice.

May 19 04:23 PM

[Dean M:]

Israel already accepted the terms of the Clinton plan. It's the Palestinians who don't want a two state solution. And negotiating with Fatah when Hamas owns the hearts and minds of the people is a waste of time and will lead to tragic results.


On May 19 03:26 PM waf76 wrote:

> Israel doesnt want a sovereign Palestine next to it. Based on facts
> on the ground a two state solution is just talk. There are way too
> many settlements, highways, and walls built that the land is effectively
> interconnected with no borders. This would be more complicated than
> unwinding CDS. An apartheid type state similar to South Africa is
> what's in store. Too bad we let it get past the point of no return
> as there really is no acceptable solution to either party.

May 19 08:10 PM

[Jade Queen:]

Obama needs to tell the Israelis to stop new settlements or their credit card is pulled. The misbehavior in Gaza must have consequences for the Israelis, just as the misbehavior of Cheney should have consequences. There are no excuses for what went on in Gaza, or for unequal treatment inside Israel for that matter. No U.S. citizen should be taxed to pay for unequal treatment under any law. That our own Constitution and Bill of Rights are violated at home does not justify violating human rights in other places. When we return to respect for the rights of individuals, we will head again toward better distributed prosperity, and the same is true of other places. We now have a body of laws that are arbitrary and capricious. Our laws cannot be fairly enforced, which is part of the impetus for corruption and poor sharing of goods and information. I am hopeful that the Obama administration will respond well to Freedom of Information requests, but I won't believe it until a lot of information has flowed. Repairing damage to the U.S. image will take persistent efforts to expose and repair corrupt law and practice.

May 19 09:40 PM