Google's Android Will Become the Default Mobile Platform 21 comments
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Google's Android OS is the hottest ever OS for mobile devices. In fact, over a handful of Android devices (some say as high as 20) are slated to launch this year alone from HTC (HTC), Sony (SNE), Samsung and even Garmin (GRMN). I have said this before but I truly believe that Android will be the single most commonly used platform on mobile devices in 2 years. Even cell phone makers local to China and Japan are developing Android phones.
This also means that applications developed for Android will have the farthest reach across mobile users. Some may argue that this would be counter-intuitive to my support for Apple (AAPL), but this is not the case.
Android's popularity will hurt Windows Mobile (MSFT). As for Nokia (NOK) and Palm (PALM), competing with Android or Apple is not the answer. They need to embrace the Android OS and start leveraging it to enhance their devices. Google gives away revenue it makes from the Android Market to the handset manufacturer, which is additional incentive to adopt Android.
Despite Android, iPhone and all the hype around Google and Apple, Research in Motion (RIMM) remains the business user's mobile device of choice. Research in Motion is very different from its competitors in terms of its revenue model. Basically, they don't make a lot of money on the device sales. Where they do make money is subscription. Blackberry has its own network so regardless of who the mobile service provider is, a Blackberry device needs to run on the Blackberry data network.
So if you want to identify safe, yet aggressive plays in the wireless market, I would bet on Google, Apple and Research in Motion, and in that order.
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This article has 21 comments:
Wanna bet $1000.00 that you are dead wrong?
Let's talk in May 2011!
Reality is that Android will do well, but mainly in emerging markets where the manufacturer does not have to license an OS (to keep costs down), and they'll tweak it to their taste, but use it nonetheless instead of hooking up with Windows mobile. Android will be relegated to techy types who love to tinker but will not gain mainstream acceptance due to an issue with supportability. Imagine the average soccer mom or grandmother trying to get support on their Android phone. It just doesn't work - especially when they can just walk into an Apple store for one on one support.
Regarding guymar's netbook comment, why does Apple need an answer to this money losing proposition? This is hurting Microsoft and the cloners already, which works to Apple's advantage. Notice how Softie is targeting Apple AND netbooks in their recent ad campaign?
To not invest in Apple because of the slim margin netbook "mania"? I thought corporations were in business to earn profit? Penny wise well, not really) and pound foolish!
Did you notice that RIM's customer base is now 50/50 biz/consumer? That 70% of last quarter's new subscriber adds were consumer? These are just facts.
Funny this guy thinks SA is zdnet. When this guy posts, it's more like fantasy island. Da plane! Da plane!
On May 19 11:02 AM guymar wrote:
> Seekingalpha transformed in ZDNet today? The problem with the I-Phone
> and Android is that, how ever brilliant they are, you cannot invest
> in them. You need to invest in over-valued Google's advertising business
> (as a sideline to Android?) and an Apple with no answer to netbook
> mania. And investing in RIM? With a global business downturn going
> on? Ok, back to charting as far as I am concerned ....
There are no factual information, no rational in this article at all, so it is very difficult to argue about it. "This is the coolest thing since the sliced bread" doesn't really work as a discussion starter.
Please elaborate on why you think it is the way of the future.
However, the reality is not so simple.
iPhone is a magical phone and SDK 3.0 is a real revolution that will keep many developers hooked to iPhone.
Nokia has no intention of loosing this battle. We are amazed how serious they are about finding the best applications and giving them first class support to succeed on the Nokia Platform. In the last Nokia developer forum in Monaco, the OVI platform was presented..and once completed...it has capabilities and hooks that have the broadest opportunities and support a very mature and stable environment. Nokia is very serious in making the OVI heaven for developers...and Symbian can produce very good results if you find good developers.
Android- Wonderful OS, Cup Cake addition is another step up ...but who is the owner of the App Store (Market)? who do you approach when you have a problem? the App Store, the most important tool for getting and discovering new application is less then mediocre, we had a complaint about the ranking system which is run by an obscure algorithm that does not make any sense.... no body is answering back to us ... I believe the solution might be an app-store run by the handset manufacturer and not Google...the same manner Apple runs its app store...they will not agree to something that is not as good as Apple's app-store or OVI.
The openness of the Android is its greatest competitive advantage, it is by far the most open and as such allows developers the most flexible environment.
RIM- Such a smart company...they set up their own Appstore, need to build an easier environment for developers. You can see they are taking the right steps and I believe they will also develop a rewarding environment.
Microsoft- They do not seem to be doing any activity to incentive developers to innovate on their platform. If they do not put their act together, MS has the greatest probability of becoming the biggest looser in this game.
Apples definitely deserves the credit for setting up the bar, but the competition is not over yet, it is just beginning. This is great for developers and for consumers as the major OS players can not go to sleep anymore, they also need to keep innovating.
On May 19 03:28 PM HardRock wrote:
> Da Rock tinks ya erred inna RIMM's revenue model....70% o' revenue
> issa from device sales.......
On May 19 11:02 AM guymar wrote:
> Seekingalpha transformed in ZDNet today? The problem with the I-Phone
> and Android is that, how ever brilliant they are, you cannot invest
> in them. You need to invest in over-valued Google's advertising business
> (as a sideline to Android?) and an Apple with no answer to netbook
> mania. And investing in RIM? With a global business downturn going
> on? Ok, back to charting as far as I am concerned ....
This also happens at seekingalpha.com, but I'm pretty sure it's not the webaddress that doing the tailing.
For instance, go to Google and type in "spald_fr +seekingalpha" (without the quotation marks). You will see my posting lineage in its entirety (and I'm a newbie here, folks). You will also notice that of my 10 or so posts, "User 222733" has been monitoring me since my second post.
No way to determine (yet) the identity of User 222733 but I'm up to the task. I'm very good at this sort of thing.
This is an outside agent (outside of seekingalpha) to be sure.
Try it for yourself. Go to Google and type in "YourName +seekingalpha" (without quotes, substituting your posting name for 'YourName' and keeping a space between your name and 'seekingalpha'. You'll find who is following you. Most will be flattering, I am sure.
My bet is that each and every one of us has a "User 000000" in their profile, at the very least and upon this you should inquire.
Please submit your ideas of the identity of these "users". I'll go general and say "intelligence service".
Google hopes to attain dominance via a three pronged attack.
1/ Reduce the barrier to entry into the smartphone market by doing the hard work... provide an OS for any Tom Dick and Harry smartphone hardware manufacturer to use. Capitalize on the fact that everyone wants a peice of the Blackberry/iPhone pie (Nokia/Motorolla/SonyE... have all lost it already... they will not achieve dominance with their current strategies-- i.e. they are irrelevant players).
2/ Use iGoogle as req'd to
-- take RIM down in the business arena
-- take Facebook down in the social networking arena
-- take Apple down in the general consumer arena.
-- sweeten the deal for incumbent Android Hardware manufacturers... a ready made suite of apps... just provide a browswer.
3/ Position Android as "Open Source" have linux nerds provide the grass roots enthusiasm you need to build an OS cult similar to Apple's cult.
In theory this is all fine... in practice...
1/ the consumer arena is going to be won by whomever finally secures completely DRM free media from all the media outlets in one spot -- not by an OS -- the winner in the living room will win in the hand set and in the automobile.
2/ from a hardware perspective relying on every Tom Dick and Harry to provide consistent form factors e.g. user look and feel will be challenging to users as well as companies looking to support/provide content. Likely Google will end up backing strongly the dominant Android hardware maker as time passes.
3/ from a business perspective users will need Microsoft back office ... Oracle.... Unix... Redhat... IBM... lotus... legacy app x and gateway y -- either marry to one of these technologies(as RIM to MSOFT) or die as each of these behemoth interests uses their interface to your product as a way to kick each other in the teeth. That's like dying by a thousand papers cuts... ouch... I don't want to see that again.
Wow... that was amazingly fun to write!!
If you are happy to discount the largest mobile phone operator by subscribers from your thought process whilst making investment decisions ... good luck to you.
On May 20 09:22 AM Mr T wrote:
> As long as Android is only available on T-Mobile (in the US), it
> won't be happenin'