Smartphones: The Mobile Industry Is About to Get 'Blown Apart' 45 comments
Larry Dignan
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Smartphones as a term is dying a quick death as all phones become smarter with Internet access, email and other capabilities. Meanwhile, the mobile market will be carved up based on whether devices are open, foster consumption or content creation, and utility and entertainment, according to Forrester Research. Simply put, the organizing principles around the mobile industry are about to get blown apart.
Apple’s and Google’s arrival in the mobile market is causing knock-on effects throughout the market and is opening up opportunities. All mobile handsets are becoming smarter and Internet-capable. Yesterday’s smart high-end phone is today’s midrange phone and tomorrow’s entry-level phone. The “smartphone” category is no longer useful as all phones become smart. Instead, we propose three new frameworks to segment the smart mobile device market: openness and extensibility; consumption and creation; utility and entertainment. All mobile strategies must adapt now: Consumer electronics makers must decide on their response to widely available smarter phones and the mobile Internet; handset makers must leverage software to play the mobile Internet game and differentiate long term; media, finance, retail, and other Internet companies’ strategies must exploit mobile opportunities now or lose ground to faster rivals. But the mobile market will remain fragmented with no single platform — no Windows PC equivalent — anytime soon on mobile devices.
That reality is what makes the mobile industry so much fun—it’s a free for all.
The key points:
- So-called featurephones will encroach on the smartphone. Let’s face it: All phones in a few years will be able to use Internet services, fetch email, have a camera, play music and use some sort of operating system. Fogg recommends that the terms featurephone and smartphone should go extinct. In addition, smartphones today are tomorrow’s plain old mobile phone. Fogg has a few examples: The BlackBerry Pearl used to be smart, but is now used for prepaid plans. Nokia’s Series 60 operating system used to be for high-end handsets, but those devices are marked down significantly today.
- Mobile phones will crush specialists. Phones have good enough features to ruin sales of video cameras, music players, handheld game consoles and GPS gadgets.
- Mobile devices will organize around major and minor features. For instance, the 3G iPhone has a weak camera, Amazon’s Kindle stinks at music and the Sony PSP focuses on games, but has other features.
Forrester then takes a stab at some organizing principles. The mobile market will reorganize based on the following:
Applications extensibility and openness. Extensibility refers to the ability to add features and adapt after a device is sold. Openness allows developers to add innovation on top of core building blocks. Fogg notes that no device is completely open: Mobile players will pick and choose their spots. Google’s Android is deemed most open for now.
Consumption and creation. Some devices will be known best for creating data or consuming it. For instance, the iPhone is clearly a consumption device designed to make it easy to watch video, browse the Web and play games. You won’t be writing memos, shooting pictures and creating media on it. You’re more likely to create content on the BlackBerry Bold than view it. On a Forrester chart, iPhone is deemed the most consumption friendly device with the Nokia N97 rated the highest on the creation scale. It should be noted that the Palm Pre has staked out the exact middle ground between creation and consumption in Forrester’s view.
Utility and entertainment. Fogg writes:
Both operators and device makers think of the market in terms of business versus consumer and organize their staffing and portfolios accordingly. They’re both wrong. A better framework is utility versus entertainment (see Figure 8). Carrying multiple mobile devices is a chore, and virtually all individuals have a home and a work life, even in these gloomy economic times. Individuals want a degree of both sets of abilities: It’s like the difference between emotional intelligence and conventional measures like IQ. The trick is to understand the correct balance of utility and entertainment for each consumer segment.
Today there are few devices that are deemed pure entertainment, but the iPhone comes close.
What’s it all mean? Fogg has a few interesting thoughts on the major mobile players. Among the most notable ones:
- Apple (AAPL) should stick with the software as the primary theme for the iPhone. The iPhone should incorporate software like iLife, iWork, Aperture and Final Cut to keep its mobile edge.
- HTC needs to diversify from Windows Mobile. HTC is branching out into Android devices, but it will have trouble competing with integrated device makers. The upshot: HTC will have to choose platforms.
- Samsung and LG need to play in software to be differentiated. The hardware game is one of attrition. Related: Fogg reckons that Palm needs to be acquired by a larger player. He didn’t connect the dots, but I will. Samsung should buy Palm.
- Microsoft (MSFT) can still win in mobile, but remains in a holding pattern. Fogg said whatever comes after Windows Mobile 6.5 has to deliver a wow factor to compete with Android, iPhone and Symbian.
- Google (GOOG) needs to work hard to spur Android followers. The problem: Android’s openness and versatility will fragment the platform. How will Google balance openness with fragmentation?
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This article has 45 comments:
The simple fact of the matter is that by far the majority of revenue generating content will be created with professional(read specialized), not amateur(read generalized) tools and will be consumed by professional and not amateur tools.
Ok, so nomadic high school and college students riding busses generate little revenue and spend little revenue using pirated and amateur content(and will do less in the future economy as mommy and daddy crack down on the budget) and won't buy DSLR's, game consoles where the MMI drives the devices, audio defined by the quality of the noise-cancelling headphones, phones with a voice recognition interface one can legally use in a vehicle, net/lap books/tops with a UI that allows efficient content creation, home theater systems, etc. etc. etc. These devices are quickly moving to toy status and will be cheap devices with limited service plans in line with the revenue generation and spending of their user.
Rooted workers driving vehicles that need to make money to spend money will be driven by specialization and will most of the time require multiple devices that are more than toys.
AAPL controls the hardware and software.....
To make my point clear...... RIMM may control the hardware and software on their hand held yet that OS is NOT based on a desktop level OS. None.... NONE of the others have a Desktop OS....WELL MSFT DOES!!!!! YEAH and look @ the hardware MSFT kicks out.......ZUNE? Come ON!.
AGAIN I SAY... NAME ONE (1) handset OEM that "OWNS" its own desktop OS that is UNIX certified.....that ALSO runs on their "Smartphone"
People the iPhone is not a Smartphone its A !#@$% COMPUTER!!!!!
Some people you JUST CAN NOT REACH!!! AAPL Long.
3.0 is just around the corner....
iPod2001..... iPhone 3.0 2009 = iPod2001 x 1000......
Naysayers I say History SPEAKS VOLUMES..
Monday, April 30th
Ballmer: iPhone has 'no chance'
The iPhone has no hope of gaining a true foothold in the cellphone marketplace, according to Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer. The company head told an interviewer at the USA Today that, as with computers, future control of the mobile handset business would primarily depend on software influence rather than hardware. Apple's insistence on attaching its code to a premium device could prevent it from getting any more than a small percentage of the world's cellphone user base, Ballmer predicted.
"Would I trade 96% of the market for 4% of the market? I want to have products that appeal to everybody," he said. "We'll get a chance to go through this [Apple versus Microsoft debate] again in phones and music players. There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance. It's a $500 subsidized item. They may make a lot of money. But if you actually take a look at the 1.3 billion phones that get sold, I'd prefer to have our software in 60% or 70% or 80% of them, than I would to have 2% or 3%, which is what Apple might get."
He also suggested that Apple might be creating too narrow a focus by stressing media playback on the iPhone instead of the possibilities of a general operating system such as Windows Mobile. The heavily-rumored Zune phone was again dismissed as impossible and against the company's mobile product philosophy.
"We wouldn't define our phone experience just by music. A phone is really a general purpose device," he summarized. "You want to make telephone calls, you want to get and receive messages, text, e-mail, whatever your preference is."
The iPod's success in the world of strictly entertainment-oriented handhelds was downplayed. Apple "got out early" with a good mix of media player hardware and software, according to Ballmer, but there was still an opportunity for the Zune line to have its own success. Its sales campaign would be "less edgy" and appeal to more buyers, he said. The remark appeared to ignore the company's existing campaigns, which have included Adult Swim and graffiti-themed limited runs of the player.
Microsoft currently holds a small but substantial portion of the cellphone OS business, which is currently dominated by variants on the open-source Symbian. The Zune's share has largely remained locked at roughly 9 percent of the US hard disk-based media player market since its introduction in November 2006.
NO CHANCE @ any significant market share!!!!!!!!!!
No wonder MSFT is in a world of hurt...... Bring more bananas to the Monkey Boy. I think he's hungry and has something else so profoundly idiotic to say......
Good GRIEF!!!!! VISTA 7 YEAH OK!! OOPS I meant to say Windoze 7....;)
Will the Pre be able to used as a remote to access my Mac or PC?
Will I be able to get podcasts in a effortless way?
Will I be able to sync it with contacts on my mac or pc without a cloud account?
my gut tells me that the slide out keyboard is going to be a major pain in the ass when it comes to web access and data entry....
AND the Pre launch date??!!! I'm still scratching my head over that one... Late night crack smoking decision as far as I'm concerned.
O'Kane
Good point..... there is ALWAYS room for improvement.
Omissions from my earlier post; thanks for the reminders:
- agree, it's way more than a phone
- the podcast ease of use has turned out to be unexpectedly huge for me
- I'm long AAPL w/no plans to change soon
Apple is the closest of the closed systems. Granted they have done a better job on user interface/usability front -- but certainly has the makings of a monopoly. I guess you could argue that a munificent dictator is better than a democratic govt.!
Lets face it, it was good while it lasted and made lots o mulla grande for all who were willing to partake in DOS and the horrific UI that is still Windows to this day. Now, these die hard developers are whining and or praying that the next Windows 7 will be different. Sorry to break the news to you folks, Windows 7 is long in the tooth compared to Snow Leopard. In addition Apple is not standing still on Snow Leopards "REFINEMENTS" whilst MSFT is in crisis mode gearing up for Windows 7 release.. only to (mark my words) release some SP 0.7 for Windows 7 after 3 months on the market....
In my 25+ years in this field I knew this day would come. MSFT is NOT in a go way folks... I don't care how much $$$$$ they have.... Money ain't gonna fix Windows this time round...
UNIX+APPLE=A robust platform from desktop to laptop to hand held computer.
With iPhone 3.0 take a close look @ the API's that will be in the hands of 1000's of developers.... FYI when you develop for the iPhone you are developing for the desktop OS called Snow Leopard.... they are one in the same.
Some people you just can't reach...... Maybe If I told them I had free bananas to give to their Monkey Boy Leader they just may clue in.
1. Is a good business philosophy, in terms of
standards discipline,
innovation once, innovations many times,
business profitability, staying power long term.
Face it. Openness causes proliferation of inconsequential products, a competitive quagmire, no profits to support product innovation, and short term business failure.
As a consumer, I'll be danged if I want that environment. Take this word apart and what it means is that anybody can take your product apart and modify it and screw it up, demand that you repair it and vilify your name - - just because he bought it.
I'll bet that the author of this article can't even define what openness means.
Problem is the screen is too small for many applications the computer can do and PCs are requiring bigger screens with the 24" LCDs starting to become the mainstream these days.
More applications will be developed for the PC as the screen gets bigger while the mobiles are starting trial and error introduction of web-based applications much like the younger years of the PC.
It remains to be seen if the Atom CPU from Intel will become powerful enough to enable high powered PC applications on netbooks or notebooks. That is the "ideal" compromise between PC apps and mobile's maniaturized apps.
Somehow, if they really want to bring the power of the PC into the mobile phones into the immediate future, they will have to connect the PC and mobiles wirelessly through software and using the mobile as the maniature command and control center for the PC to do the high-powered data processing tasks and providing the mobile with the end results through the internet.
The technology in controlling the PC through the internet has been around since the internet has become an integral part of the PC and has been the fascination of many hackers early in this century.
Definitely, the mobiles simply cannot have the horsepower needed to run many PC-based applications and thus will be limited to the most manial tasks to date. Thus, important data that needed high powered processing cannot be carried out while "on the road" preventing a lot of applications to be carried out extensively where-ever and when-ever people may need them. Cloud computing for the mobile phones - anyone?
Tell that to the mobile phone innovators. They will need more "hard-core" programmers to the job.
That is changing. Vista 7 will be a flop. It's not hard to see this, nothing much has changed. Even Ballmer himself has admitted it's just another version of Vista. It's time for Apple to come out with a low end model, that will be when the 'other shoe' drops.
You've got to be kidding me. Does he have the Foggiest notion HOW that could happen? Are they going to buy RIM?
On May 19 12:11 PM lovethelanguage wrote:
> @O'Kane: can't increase the ringer volume on the iPhone? As in,
> w/the big rocker switch on the side, next to the physical (thank
> you, Apple!) ringer mute switch?
>
> Omissions from my earlier post; thanks for the reminders:
>
> - agree, it's way more than a phone
> - the podcast ease of use has turned out to be unexpectedly huge
> for me
> - I'm long AAPL w/no plans to change soon
As for the direction of the computing field, processors continue to get smaller and faster, memory continues to get cheaper, faster, more reliable, and these developments open up new possibilities for tiny devices. The screens are smaller (obviously), but just as an iPod can plug into a home entertainment system, there's no reason a phone of the future can't have massive computing and memory power AND plug into a home device that runs on full-sized screens, and do it without wires.
When I'm at home, I have a computer (iMac) and a landline. When I'm mobile, I need a mobile phone, but no handheld device is going to meet my minimal requirements for a useful computer. I look for the phone with the FEWEST features so I get reliability and don't have to dig through multiple nested menus to do some basic phone thing when I'm in a hurry.
I wonder if the author is out of college, or even knows anyone over 40? Not everyone is manic about having a constant stream of bells, whistles and tweets to deal with.
2. i have a question: which software companies are going to profit from making these devices work with the expanding wireless broadband systems?
Apple's next target is their own computers! Hardly anyone needs a PC or Mac. What they want is a dependable device that has no backup / state issues. Want a better one? Buy it and take it home.
The only people who should be running PCs and Macs are developers/CAD/Photoshop junkies. Consumers want email, homework and facebook, not viruses, backup, headaches, etc. Way too complicated.
when my old moto slvr broke, i re-upped with an enV2. perfect for what i do - texting and calling. i dont want to pay for a phone that can browse the web. neither do blue-collar 40+ year olds.
Combine this with the introduction of effective subvocal control, and you've got a setup that will have a huge impact on today's traditional desktop PC paradigm.
I personally can't wait to be able to augment my senses so I can see in the dark, see infrared, see behind me, etc...
IMHO, here is what I am old enough to remember.
Apple was by far the best in PC software. IBM was the PC and mainframe king. MS had money and resources from IBM to create a Mainframe OS, so they copied the Apple OS at the same time. IBM let MS have the PC OS without a fight, since the OS was Apple's big advantage over IBM and nobody cloned Apple hardware, just IBM.
Apple sued until MS changed the OS enough to pass copyright infringement. (Steven Jobs, "the first time we sued, they hadn't even changed our trash can" to a recycle bin yet!).
Then MS used Windows to eliminate Word Perfect and Netscape Navigator. MS had Word and Explorer in place when windows came out and by the time Word Perfect and Netscape Navigator were ready for Windows.............we... wants to re-learn more software (even if it is better software).
Meanwhile Apple and IBM were destroyed in the PC clone wars. IBM mainframes were also destoyed by open source (Java?).
Jobs re-invented Apple and IBM re-invented themselves into a consulting and services firm.
Sony invented Beta and VHS technology.....Beta was better quality and smaller tapes so they kept Beta for themselves and were swallowed by their VHS clones.
Open source always wins because it is one player (no matter how good) against everybody else, but it is not a good business model.
IMHO Microsoft markets and manipulates.....they do not create....they are now copying ERP systems and have 80% of the smallest end market.........will THEIR time end soon????? I don't know......they can still copy, but control???
On May 19 02:37 PM brewer wrote:
> Don't be stupid about 'openness' it's not about who you sell software
> to, so any know-nothing assembler (Dell/HP/Sony, ANY PC manufacturer
> except Apple) can put it on yet another generic device. It's about
> using open standards. Microsoft is the CLOSED one, and they have
> tricked a lot of dullards into believing they are OPEN. Good one
> for them. Microsoft is the one that takes a truly open standard,
> like HTML for crying out loud, and 'embraces and extends' it so that
> it doesn't work as it should. Since they have a huge chunk of the
> market, eveyone has to work around it. None of Microsoft's software
> supports open standards. Everyone has to support Microsoft's defacto
> (not actual) standards because, up to this point at least, they have
> been the proverbial 800 lb gorilla.
>
> That is changing. Vista 7 will be a flop. It's not hard to see this,
> nothing much has changed. Even Ballmer himself has admitted it's
> just another version of Vista. It's time for Apple to come out with
> a low end model, that will be when the 'other shoe' drops.
As such Forrester nonsense is regualrly debunked at roughlydrafted.com
iphone is an entertainment only device.... please
In a 24 hour period, Jack Bauer never visits the WC nor charges his mobile. There's a killer app for you.
> I want a mobile device like Jack Bauer's. It works in elevators,
> bank vaults and 300 feet underground without a glitch.
>
> In a 24 hour period, Jack Bauer never visits the WC nor charges his
> mobile. There's a killer app for you.
Sure he does. He goes when you go (during commercials).
Can you replace the battery?
"The answer is no, I have to send it/take it to apple and have them do it for $79 if its out of warranty"
For me, the popularity of windows has nothing to do with Windows being a superior operating system, it has to do with the completely decoupled nature of the PC from the OS. Guess what, if the next generation of games comes out and I need more RAM or a newer video card, I can replace them. Myself. For cheap. I recently completely replaced my system with nearly the latest and greatest hardware for $700. Kept my old hard drive as a slave drive, lost nothing. Can Apple do that? Nope.
So you can keep bashing Microsoft, and I'll keep updating my hardware.
as to smartphones being crude and not useful except for calls and email...huh? ever use an iPhone? it's very user friendly and easy and you can do a heck of a lot more than email since it has a computer OS in it!
there's lots of room for competition and it's fun to watch. But the prize goes to the swift in techland...and the swift and best innovator is still Apple.
> For all of the apple "fanboys" who boast about openness and why the
> iPhone is the best I just want to ask one question.
>
> Can you replace the battery?
Number of years I've had a mobile phone: 13
Number of phones I've had: 6
Number of times I've replaced the battery: 0
So who cares? I expect to move to the next phone in a year or so and I really, really doubt I will have to replace the battery before then.
Of course, I'm biased for android :) froogloid.com
If a phone can do more for a lower price than the one I have, it is worth buying. As a side note, It is idiotic to have the iPhone slammed as a phone with "low application ability".
I would like to know who paid Foster Research for this "research"...
It would seem pretty simple, but I'm not aware of anyone having it- true?
A key problem with the tech industry is that NO ONE want to be what they are. Software guys what to be into hardware. Phone providers are obsessed with software. Long distance providers want to sell computers and TVs.
The paradox of this industry is that while the 'openness of innovation' has fostered great growth and invention, the lack of clear rules and boundaries continues to create havoc with the consumer. This industry needs a tennis court, with clear rules and thin out of bounds lines. As consumers, we're paying needlessly to watch the current players slam balls all over the place. Tennis is best played between the lines. Great points are those that are extended rallies with balls falling close to the lines but clearly in.
Just once.
On May 20 01:37 PM tilion wrote:
> On May 20 10:50 AM speeddaimon wrote:
On May 20 01:42 PM froogloid wrote:
> Wow, what a lot of comments and opinions :) Here's my 2 cents ~ apple
> and android will prevail. OEM's, with the exception of BB, Nokia
> and Palm will of course adopt android. Apple will continue to build
> sexy phones. Microsoft, simply put, has a lot of catching up to do.
>
>
> Of course, I'm biased for android :) froogloid.com/
All this over analysis is just that - hot air that confuses the real issue - when BB was released it satisifed a simple need - email on the go. When the Iphone was released it satisifed another simple requirement - people wanted to use their phone for multimedia as well as to call people.
You get traction and first mover advantage because you were the first to satisfy the needs of the customer this doesn't mean they will stick with you for life but guess what - if you keep giving them what they want why should they change? Unless of course you start milking them for every penny.
Steve Ballmer confirmed that the Zune software was coming to Windows Mobile back in October 2008. In February, Microsoft took one of the first steps to make this possible by splitting the Zune team into separate software and hardware groups. It's still not officially announced by Microsoft, but Zune Mobile is definitely coming.
www.wealthalchemist.co.../
iphone is turning into a swiss knife model decaying the demand of new generation's need on nintendo DS, psp, etc. It's certainly too early to describe this as head-on competition, but the trend is worthy to be noted