Why Is Sprint Launching the Pre Two Days Before Apple's WWDC? 20 comments
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By John Biggs
For those of you who haven’t noticed, the Pre will launch two days before the WWDC keynote, traditionally a time of great nerdgasm when Apple (AAPL) announces some new products but, more importantly, has recently been announcing new iPhone hardware and/or software. The Steve-less Steve-note will happen on June 8 while the Pre will excite and entice us on June 6.
There are three reasons Sprint (S) and Palm (PALM) could have chosen this date. The first reason is the most cynical: if they launch a dog the news cycle will quickly turn to Apple (AAPL) and they will be spared the sad and steady clamor of angry Palm zealots. Their stock price will fall, sure, but investors will move on from their sad stink of failure and instead work on Apple. Then they’ll clean out their desks and go home.
We at CG love the Pre and I find it hard to believe that this will be a dog - but we have been wrong. Palm could fall into the traps that the other iPhone-alikes fell into: wonky OSes over slow UIs that turn a great experience into a good one. Here’s hoping we’re wrong.
The second reason reeks of hubris, albeit of the well-deserved variety. As we’ve seen, Palm is pretty proud of their work, as they should be. They went from zero to hero overnight and they owned CES 2009. So why not take on the biggest kid on the block? By launching two days before anything Apple is launching, they could own the news cycle. There is no concrete proof that Apple is doing anything but launching a new iPhone OS at WWDC - since Steve left it’s gotten infinitesimally easier to grab leaks out of Cupertino than it once was, which isn’t saying much. However, with something as big as new iPhone hardware you’d assume some strange Chinese site would have something on it. However: bupkus. So maybe Palm is planning to own that week.
The third and final possibility is the least likely one: Sprint ham-handed this launch for Palm and essentially ignored all outside factors and just wanted to get something out on a nice Saturday - note that they’re launching on a Saturday in order to ensure long lines and plenty of ink - in June. Carriers know how to sell commodity handsets but this is the first time Sprint has ever gotten a Handset of Desire (TM) akin to the iPhone. Maybe they just don’t know how to throw a party?
Whichever it is, the Palm Pre better be as amazing as I think it will be or else I’m totally getting rid of the Palm V I’m using now and buying an iPaq.
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It is just market musical chairs. Can you live without this nonsense? If you can't you're in big trouble.
Scenario 2 and the word hubris are key....it feels like Palm is playing chicken with the 3rd rail and an Apple train is pulling into the station....the potential for epic fail is troublesome (greek tragedy?) - didn't think of WWDC publicity as good cover for a botched Palm launch, good point JB.
Well good luck to Palm and those of us who've invested....I guess the most intense thrills only come with the imminent threat of death.
They may have seen that some of their perceived superiority in features - specifically cut & paste, and multi-tasking - will be taken away by the iPhone OS 3.0, and they want to get out while they can still claim that they are ahead. (Yes - I know that iPhone Notifications is not multi-tasking, but it does answer the most compelling reason to have a true need for it.)
On the other hand - push by Sprint to get it out is plausible. But these outfits need to start making money. Perhaps they think - we need to get them out in people's hands before Apple says "There really is no areas of superiorty - we now have all that they have." (Just a thought)
With its new management, under Dan Hesse, Sprint has embarked on a positive glidepath and has ensconced itself pretty well to compete with ATT & VZ. The cards have turned, ATT's iPhone exclusivity holds no more advantages!
A bonus, Telefonica's intentions to expand into North America only has one logical path and that is an acquisition of Sprint. Sprint at $16 billion is a bargain, hence Telefonica has plenty of room to cogently up the Ante to facilitate the acquisition.
Nevertheless, Sprint shareholders will do well without a windfall from an acquisition if the current management continues their restructuring from this inflection point.
I believe it is also likely that Pre is challenging the big dog and at the same time grabbing some marketing mention for free. These are logical reasons, no need to analyze it to death.
While most of us value competition and many here understand how good the Pre is, it is also important to not write off Apple, RIMM and Nokia.
Technically, Apple can adapt as fast as Palm or faster given their near-unlimited resource and a larger and very capable engineering team. RIMM is aggressively selling into the consumer market with a well-established notification infrastructure. Nokia is ramping up to also sell aggressively overseas and it is a well-known name internationally.
Here is what I see happening. Those who communicate frequently using multimedia material will find Pre appealing. Its UI in this area is well thought-out. The challenges will be games, complex software and entertainment such as videos and music. Palm is likely working to address that with Pre2 or Pre Plus.
Those who enjoy music, games and complex software will remain with iPhone. They will wish for the "Lifestyle" UI of the Pre. Apple will have to ramp to address those needs.
RIMM is also good at messages and communications and some documentation work, but RIMM is still lacking in consumer entertainment and consumer media and ease of use. RIMM has to ramp up in that area. RIMM is unfortunately facing a potential threat in Pre because Pre is easier to use than RIMM.
Nokia is for now, the last place holder in terms of UI engineering and content richness. Nokia is holding on by its sheer size in the mid to lower end market.
So for consumers who favor entertainments and complex software, iPhone is a good choice. Those who favor communication over everything else, Pre is a good choice. Those who prefer RIMM because of familiarity and utility will likely remain with RIMM. I do not see that Pre is going to "win" over everyone else just like I do not see iPhone or RIMM dominate the entire market.
We are just now seeing the dawn of media integration on a mobile micro computing device. The market has yet to fully define everything that it will and will not offer. To now claim one device is superior to all others is very short-sighted and wrong. As consumers, we are so lucky to have Apple and now Palm. I hope they duke it out real good over the next couple of years.
At the very least, iPhone 3.0 has cleaned up its own perceived weaknesses? Cut and paste is finally available, thank goodness! People wanted a better camera so they are getting it. In the software, video recording and editing capabilities are built-in and supported waiting for hardware. There is now API support for communicating with external devices. The units now can communicate automatically with other units via Bluetooth. Tethering is built-in waiting for ATT to grow up and let it happen. Need I go on? The limitation now is actually what Apple and its developers will choose to develop this year and into the future for iPhone 3.0.
How about the AppStore where developers can make a quick dollar? How about the ability to sell add-on's from within an application?
Pre offers a better integrated UI for communication which Apple and RIMM do not offer but can match in the future, if they so choose, at the risk of being called "copycat". There are no technical barriers. So Pre's differentiating characteristics are the UI designs tailored to do a specific set of tasks well. That set of tasks are for now limited to communications (messages, emails and phone calls). How does that translate to other applications? Especially complex ones needing more RAM and higher computing power? I am not saying it cannot, I am pointing out there are legitimate technical concerns and considerations, even for the Pre.
I am sure Palm knows this and is already addressing these considerations but for now, Pre is not yet able to unseat the iPhone or RIMM in a dominating manner.
You should also note that Palm appears to have learnt its lessons, just as Apple did when PCs were the main topic of interest, that sitting on your derriere with a business malady known in business school as "functional emotionalism," can be fatal. With new leadership in Palm and Sprint I feel the partnership is ensconced pretty well to meet the challenges ahead.
I would like to emphasize his last sentence!
On May 19 12:56 PM Aryamehr wrote:
> Your second reasoning is more in line and fitting with the rumor
> mills. When you unequivocally know that your product is superior
> and have been taunted by the spin masters, why not call their bluff.
> Apple has little to offer that would emulate the Pre. The future
> is a different ball game and Palm has indicated that they will be
> continuing to improve and fine tune the Pre and its WebOS. What I
> like about the Pre's platform is that its UI is far more efficient
> and its ability to work on a 4G network. This is going to be an almost
> impossible task for the iPhone to counter in the next couple of years,
> since they have handicapped themselves with ATT's inferior network.
> Its funny how ATT commercials misinform the public about how fast
> their networks operate. When it comes to download speeds ATT's 3G
> falls way behind Sprint's 3G and miles behind their 4G.
Assuming "gamers" to be teenagers reinforces the second mistake above.
In the "smart phone user" segment, voice is no longer the main concern. This has been happening since before iPhone came into existent. It is actually how RIMM came into being and how Palm once was doing so well. Voice communication is now just the basic requirements. Anyone who is about to spend any cash on any so-called "smart" device will be expecting web browsing, email, text messaging at the very least. If anything, it is the "life data" integration that is of interest to these buyers, not just voice.
Teenagers of today are the IT professionals, engineers, scientists, consumers of tomorrow. What they will buy and enjoy using today, will drive what they will be able to buy and use in two, five and ten years. To ignore this population and think of them all as "toy" users is to completely miss the boat.
On technology, it is not just games, it is the sophistication of an application. As chip becomes more powerful, consumes less power as memory increases, these little Pre and Androids and iPhones will one day have the power of a laptop or a low-end desktop. By that time, it is all about what sort of UI is possible on that tiny screen to make the device useful for a user. That UI sophistication will rely heavily on the ability to create complex and sophisticated applications that can run in harmony on a small device. To ignore this is not to understand the future, even Palm knows this.
So if you are still focused on cell phones as we know it, you are missing the point of the Pre, iPhone and even RIMM's newer offerings. If you think games are games then you have missed the technological implications. If you ignore the teenagers and those who appreciate complex operations on a handheld, you risk becoming stagnant, fall behind and antagonize the future buyers of more powerful technology.
This is why I say to be careful with all these talks about how Palm is about to rule the world. Not yet, not yet.... :-)
So if the Pre by some fluke is better than an iPhone...it'll only be better for a tech innovation minute.
Bye bye Pre!
(what category has been the biggest seller on the iTunes App Store?)
Sprint + Clearwire is rolling out Sprint's Xhom 4G technology. Based on what I read, its speed has peak of about 4 MBit/s and averages 3 MBit/s. This is currently only available mostly in major east coast metropolitan area. The build-out will reach 80 million people by end of 2009, 140 million by end of 2010 and in 2011, it will match all of Sprint's current network coverage. This tidbit is taken from an article in Network World, author is Brian Nadel, posted 10/10/2008.
According to the article, ATT 3G speed was only 1.7 MBit/s when compared against Xhom.
According to Kevin Fitchard of Telephony Magazine, in an article dated 4/20/2009, AT&T is in the process of doubling 3G speed from 3.6 Mbit/s to 7.2 MBit/s. This is achieved by migrating 3G to HSPA+ as an intermediate step before jumping straight for LTE. ATT is testing this new upgrade in two test markets.
According to Patricia Resende of NewsFactor, ATT expects to switch to the new HSPA+ network by end of this year, 2009. So it is likely that come 2010, ATT will be running at 7.2 MBit/s or an average of 3 MBit/s or 4 Mbit/s given how the current 3.6 MBit/s system is delivering an average of 1.7 MBit/s.
So in terms of competition between Sprint and ATT, as long as ATT delivers as reported, the speed race is even?
If ATT's new HSPA+ actually can deliver better than 50% of specification, meaning it can go above half of 7.2 MBits/s on average, we are looking at an average of 4 or 5 MBit/s? 6 Mbit/s?
So, again, be very careful with research and data.