Young And Restless Portfolio: BlackBerry Will Be The Catalyst

Apr.30.13 | About: BlackBerry Ltd. (BBRY)

I am going to take a slightly different approach with the Young And Restless Retirement Portfolio update this month. Rather than review each individual stock within the portfolio, I am going to focus on why the portfolio has performed so well, and what will be the next huge catalyst to send the entire portfolio significantly higher in the months ahead.

This review will be brief, direct and to the point. Hopefully to make it a quick and intriguing read for this morning.

The Next Catalyst That Could Move This Portfolio Significantly Higher

In these two articles, I explained my opinion and position on BlackBerry, quite clearly:

While I might have been somewhat overzealous when it came to margins, it appears that the company is beginning to show very strong results as noted in this article by my colleague David Alton Clark, as well as this timely piece by fellow author George Kesarios.

With the launch of the Z10 as well as the Q10 (with the Qwerty key board functionality, BBRY could be on the verge of making a significant impact within the smartphone arena.

The new services offered by BBRY (BES10, BDS, BES10 Express, BMS, and UDS) as described quite well in this article, should catapult the stock to multi-year highs in the very near term.

It is my belief that the next major catalyst of the Young And Restless Portfolio will be the success of BlackBerry.

Let's Look At the Performance

The "Young and Restless" portfolio consists of BlackBerry (NASDAQ:BBRY) , Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOG), Facebook (FB), Yahoo (YHOO), Achillion (ACHN), and Zynga (ZNGA).

Stock Orig.Price Price Now Orig. Invst Value Now %+/-
AMZN 230 250 10,000 11,000 10%
BBRY 13 16 10,000 11,600 16%
GOOG 640 819 10,000 12,900 29%
FB 23 27 10,000 11,400 14%
ACHN 8 7 10,000 8,900 -11%
YHOO 19 25 10,000 13,000 30%
ACHN (2nd) 8 7 10,000 8,900 -11%
ZNGA 3 3 10,000 10,000 0%
Portfolio Value xxxx xxxx 80,000 87,700 35%
Cash xxxx xxxx xxxx 21,600 xxxx
Total xxxx xxxx xxxx 109,300 xxxx
Click to enlarge

With the decline in ACHN, the overall portfolio value has taken a 5% hit in the last month. I believe that since there has been very little news coming from ACHN about the phase II trials of its hep. C drugs, combined with an increase in short holdings, has led to a deterioration in the share price. Let me be clear, ACHN is not out of this race even though Gilead (NASDAQ:GILD) seems to have the inside track.

The hep. C market is roughly $30 billion as I outlined completely in this recent article, and there is plenty of room for ACHN to either be a player in the market, or be a viable take out candidate. I am sticking with our position here.

While the portfolio value has increased by about 35% in about 4 months, it is largely due to the gains we had in Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX). I first announced selling half of our NFLX holdings in this article, yet decided to take the full profits to redeploy into additional shares of ACHN, and add to cash reserves as described in this article.

Needless to say, NFLX has continued to rise, and ACHN has dipped, but I believe the actions were (and are) prudent. We could also discuss the direction that Zynga has taken into real money, on line gaming this article:

Zynga will take time to show gains I believe, but the one stock that will send the portfolio significantly higher is BlackBerry.

Let's see if we turn out to be right again.

Disclosure: I am long ACHN, BBRY, FB, YHOO, ZNGA. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.