Seeking Alpha
Long/short equity, momentum, special situations
Profile| Send Message|
( followers)  

By: Brendan Gilmartin, VP Research & Content

The leading automakers are scheduled to report monthly sales on Wednesday, May 1.

Summary: The top automakers are scheduled to report April 2013 auto sales on Wednesday May 1. According to a report on TrueCar.com, sales are expected to top the 15-million mark for the sixth straight month, thanks to solid consumer demand. Meanwhile, Edmunds.com says it's projecting its strongest April in six years, with sales rising to pre-recession levels. Despite forecasts for stellar year/year sales growth, comparisons to March 2013 are expected to show a decline, due in part to reduced incentives and seasonality. Nevertheless, General Motors (NYSE:GM) is at a 52-week high ahead of the release, while Ford Motor (NYSE:F) is within earshot of its 1-year apex, suggesting the market may have already priced in a strong report.

Ford Motor Expected Release Time: 9:30 a.m. EST

Overview: Ford shares are within earshot of a 52-week high and expected to deliver a strong y/y comp, thanks to a recent uptick in small business demand along with a slight drop in gasoline prices over recent weeks. Furthermore, Kelley Blue Book is predicting Ford will deliver solid double-digit sales gains thanks to solid demand for the Fusion and Focus models.

Estimates

TrueCar.com: 17.2% (Source: Truecar.com)

Edmunds.com: 16.2% (Source: Edmunds.com)

Kelley Blue Book: 15.3% (Source: KBB.com)

Technical Review: Ford is creeping back toward the 52-week high of $14.30 (1/15) after clearing resistance at $13.50, a level that now becomes near-term support in the event of a miss on monthly sales, with downside risk to $12.75. Resistance is at the aforementioned high above $14.00 on an expected surge in April sales. (Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com)

General Motors Expected Release Time: 10:00 a.m. EST

Overview: General Motors shares are at a 52-week high ahead of the April sales report, expected to show a 10% - 12% increase in April sales, thanks to improving credit conditions, a boost in consumer sentiment, high trade-in values, and a slight drop in fuel prices.

Estimates

TrueCar.com: 10.2% (Source: Truecar.com)

Edmunds.com: 11.5% (Source: Edmunds.com)

Kelley Blue Book: 12.0% (Source: KBB.com)

Technical Review: GM shares recently broke out to a 52-week high, eclipsing the previous peak established in January. But with the shares up more than 10% over the past several weeks and the Relative Strength Index now hovering near the 70-level, the market is pricing in a strong April sales report. Anything less would be seen as a disappointment given the run-up in the shares. (Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com)

Disclaimer: By using this report, you acknowledge that Selerity, Inc. is in no way liable for losses or gains arising out of commentary, analysis, and or data in this report. Your investment decisions and recommendations are made entirely at your discretion. Selerity does not own securities in companies that they write about, is not an investment adviser, and the content contained herein is not an endorsement to buy or sell any securities. No content published as part of this report constitutes a recommendation that any particular investment, security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. For Terms of Use Regarding Research Reports, Please Visit here

Source: Ford Rallies Ahead Of April Sales Report; GM Reaches Fresh 52-Week High