Bespoke's Commodity Snapshot (5/21/09)

Below we highlight our trading range charts of ten major commodities. The green shading in the charts represents between 2 standard deviations above and below the commodity's 50-day moving average. When the price moves outside of this range, the commodity is considered either overbought or oversold.

As shown below, oil has rallied nicely but it is currently in overbought territory and at the top of its uptrend channel. After staging a comeback in recent weeks, natural gas has sold off again in recent days. Gold and silver have been rallying recently as well as the dollar has declined. They aren't quite yet above their normal trading ranges, but they're getting close. Corn, wheat, orange juice, and especially coffee, are trading near or above overbought levels.

Comments

[RiskReturnO...:]

DBA breaking out of $27 (200 day MA). Look for filling of gap to last Octobers level (pre-Lehman, hedge fund liquidation). $30 looks good at next target. Volume is good, momentum is strong, dollar is weak, inflation expectations are rising, China & India still eating, seasonally strong during Australia/Argentina winters... very bullish for DBA.

May 22 03:13 PM

[HATEFEEBAY:]

I concur, silver is going to skyrocket and for good reason. The industrial play is weak, but even in a bull it will be used, but as a bear and the loss of value for the US Dollar imminent (Thanks Obama you idiot), it will play a HUGE hedge as will gold.

May 24 10:44 PM